Stochastic and spatio-temporal analysis of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea, 2015
Identifieur interne : 000176 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000175; suivant : 000177Stochastic and spatio-temporal analysis of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea, 2015
Auteurs : Hyunsun LeeSource :
- Infectious Disease Modelling [ 2468-2152 ] ; 2019.
Abstract
South Korea was free of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) until 2015. The MERS outbreak in South Korea during 2015 was the largest outbreak of the Coronavirus outside the Middle East. The major characteristic of this outbreak is inter- or intra-hospital transmission. This recent MERS outbreak in South Korea is examined and assessed in this paper. The main objectives of the study is to characterize the pattern of the MERS outbreak in South Korea based on a basic reproductive ratio, the probability of ultimate extinction of the disease, and the spatio-temporal proximity of occurrence between patients. The survival function method and stochastic branching process model are adapted to calculate the basic reproductive ratio and the probability of ultimate extinction of the disease. We further investigate the occurrence pattern of the outbreak using a spatio-temporal autocorrelation function.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2019.06.002
PubMed: 31297469
PubMed Central: 6595052
Affiliations:
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>South Korea was free of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) until 2015. The MERS outbreak in South Korea during 2015 was the largest outbreak of the Coronavirus outside the Middle East. The major characteristic of this outbreak is inter- or intra-hospital transmission. This recent MERS outbreak in South Korea is examined and assessed in this paper. The main objectives of the study is to characterize the pattern of the MERS outbreak in South Korea based on a basic reproductive ratio, the probability of ultimate extinction of the disease, and the spatio-temporal proximity of occurrence between patients. The survival function method and stochastic branching process model are adapted to calculate the basic reproductive ratio and the probability of ultimate extinction of the disease. We further investigate the occurrence pattern of the outbreak using a spatio-temporal autocorrelation function.</p>
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<title-group><article-title>Stochastic and spatio-temporal analysis of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea, 2015</article-title>
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<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" id="au1"><name><surname>Lee</surname>
<given-names>Hyunsun</given-names>
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<email>hlee@hpu.edu</email>
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<aff id="aff1">Department of Mathematics, Hawai'i Pacific University, Honolulu, HI 96813, USA</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>14</day>
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<year>2019</year>
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<volume>4</volume>
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<month>8</month>
<year>2018</year>
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<date date-type="rev-recd"><day>6</day>
<month>6</month>
<year>2019</year>
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<date date-type="accepted"><day>10</day>
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<year>2019</year>
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<permissions><copyright-statement>© 2019 The Author</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2019</copyright-year>
<license><license-p>Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.</license-p>
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<abstract id="abs0010"><p>South Korea was free of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) until 2015. The MERS outbreak in South Korea during 2015 was the largest outbreak of the Coronavirus outside the Middle East. The major characteristic of this outbreak is inter- or intra-hospital transmission. This recent MERS outbreak in South Korea is examined and assessed in this paper. The main objectives of the study is to characterize the pattern of the MERS outbreak in South Korea based on a basic reproductive ratio, the probability of ultimate extinction of the disease, and the spatio-temporal proximity of occurrence between patients. The survival function method and stochastic branching process model are adapted to calculate the basic reproductive ratio and the probability of ultimate extinction of the disease. We further investigate the occurrence pattern of the outbreak using a spatio-temporal autocorrelation function.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group id="kwrds0010"><title>Keywords</title>
<kwd>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome</kwd>
<kwd>Basic reproductive ratio</kwd>
<kwd>Probability of ultimate extinction</kwd>
<kwd>Autocorrelation</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
<notes><p id="misc0010">Handling Editor: J. Wu</p>
</notes>
</front>
</pmc>
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<tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Lee, Hyunsun" sort="Lee, Hyunsun" uniqKey="Lee H" first="Hyunsun" last="Lee">Hyunsun Lee</name>
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