A pandemic risk assessment of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia
Identifieur interne : 000F09 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000F08; suivant : 000F10A pandemic risk assessment of middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia
Auteurs : Saleh A. Eifan [Arabie saoudite] ; Islam Nour [Arabie saoudite] ; Atif Hanif [Arabie saoudite] ; Abdelrahman M. M. Zamzam [Arabie saoudite] ; Sameera Mohammed Aljohani [Arabie saoudite]Source :
- Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences [ 1319-562X ] ; 2017.
Abstract
Since the initial emergence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, a high incidence rate has been observed in Saudi Arabia. This suggests that the country is at continuous risk. The epidemic level of MERS-CoV infection was examined in Saudi Arabia by the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model using a Bayesian approach for estimation of time dependent reproduction number (R) across a two-year interval (May, 2013-May, 2015) in five defined clusters, followed by sensitivity analysis of the most significant clusters. Significant MERS-CoV peaks were detected in the period between March and May of each year. Moreover, MERS-CoV infection was highlighted in western (40.8%) and central (31.9%) regions, followed by eastern region (20%). The temporal-based Bayesian approach indicated a sub-critical epidemic in all regions in the baseline scenario (R: 0.85–0.97). However, R potential limit was exceeded in the sensitivity analysis scenario in only central and western regions (R: 1.08–1.12) that denoted epidemic level in those regions. The impact of sporadic cases was found relatively insignificant and pinpointed to the lack of zoonotic influence on MERS-CoV transmission dynamics. The results of current study would be helpful for evaluation of future progression of MERS-CoV infections, better understanding and control interventions.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.sjbs.2017.06.001
PubMed: 29062261
PubMed Central: 5643837
Affiliations:
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Eifan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af005">Botany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Arabie saoudite</country><wicri:regionArea>Botany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Riyadh</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nour, Islam" sort="Nour, Islam" uniqKey="Nour I" first="Islam" last="Nour">Islam Nour</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af005">Botany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Arabie saoudite</country><wicri:regionArea>Botany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Riyadh</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hanif, Atif" sort="Hanif, Atif" uniqKey="Hanif A" first="Atif" last="Hanif">Atif Hanif</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af005">Botany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Arabie saoudite</country><wicri:regionArea>Botany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Riyadh</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zamzam, Abdelrahman M M" sort="Zamzam, Abdelrahman M M" uniqKey="Zamzam A" first="Abdelrahman M. M." last="Zamzam">Abdelrahman M. M. Zamzam</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af010">Basic Medical Science Department, Inaya Medical Sciences College, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Arabie saoudite</country><wicri:regionArea>Basic Medical Science Department, Inaya Medical Sciences College, Riyadh</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Riyadh</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Aljohani, Sameera Mohammed" sort="Aljohani, Sameera Mohammed" uniqKey="Aljohani S" first="Sameera Mohammed" last="Aljohani">Sameera Mohammed Aljohani</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af015">Division of Microbiology, Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, King AbdulAziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Arabie saoudite</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Microbiology, Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, King AbdulAziz Medical City, Riyadh</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Riyadh</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences</title><idno type="ISSN">1319-562X</idno><idno type="eISSN">2213-7106</idno><imprint><date when="2017">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Since the initial emergence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, a high incidence rate has been observed in Saudi Arabia. This suggests that the country is at continuous risk. The epidemic level of MERS-CoV infection was examined in Saudi Arabia by the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model using a Bayesian approach for estimation of time dependent reproduction number (R) across a two-year interval (May, 2013-May, 2015) in five defined clusters, followed by sensitivity analysis of the most significant clusters. Significant MERS-CoV peaks were detected in the period between March and May of each year. Moreover, MERS-CoV infection was highlighted in western (40.8%) and central (31.9%) regions, followed by eastern region (20%). The temporal-based Bayesian approach indicated a sub-critical epidemic in all regions in the baseline scenario (R: 0.85–0.97). However, R potential limit was exceeded in the sensitivity analysis scenario in only central and western regions (R: 1.08–1.12) that denoted epidemic level in those regions. The impact of sporadic cases was found relatively insignificant and pinpointed to the lack of zoonotic influence on MERS-CoV transmission dynamics. The results of current study would be helpful for evaluation of future progression of MERS-CoV infections, better understanding and control interventions.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Abolfotouh, M A" uniqKey="Abolfotouh M">M.A. Abolfotouh</name></author><author><name sortKey="Alqarni, A A" uniqKey="Alqarni A">A.A. AlQarni</name></author><author><name sortKey="Al Ghamdi, S M" uniqKey="Al Ghamdi S">S.M. Al-Ghamdi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Salam, M" uniqKey="Salam M">M. Salam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Al Assiri, M H" uniqKey="Al Assiri M">M.H. Al-Assiri</name></author><author><name sortKey="Balkhy, H H" uniqKey="Balkhy H">H.H. 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Haagmans</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Arabie saoudite</li></country></list><tree><country name="Arabie saoudite"><noRegion><name sortKey="Eifan, Saleh A" sort="Eifan, Saleh A" uniqKey="Eifan S" first="Saleh A." last="Eifan">Saleh A. Eifan</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Aljohani, Sameera Mohammed" sort="Aljohani, Sameera Mohammed" uniqKey="Aljohani S" first="Sameera Mohammed" last="Aljohani">Sameera Mohammed Aljohani</name><name sortKey="Hanif, Atif" sort="Hanif, Atif" uniqKey="Hanif A" first="Atif" last="Hanif">Atif Hanif</name><name sortKey="Nour, Islam" sort="Nour, Islam" uniqKey="Nour I" first="Islam" last="Nour">Islam Nour</name><name sortKey="Zamzam, Abdelrahman M M" sort="Zamzam, Abdelrahman M M" uniqKey="Zamzam A" first="Abdelrahman M. M." last="Zamzam">Abdelrahman M. M. Zamzam</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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