Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Identifieur interne : 001269 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001268; suivant : 001270Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Auteurs : Justin Lessler ; Henrik Salje ; Maria D. Van Kerkhove ; Neil M. Ferguson ; Simon Cauchemez ; Isabel Rodriquez-Barraquer ; Rafat Hakeem ; Thibaut Jombart ; Ricardo Aguas ; Ali Al-Barrak ; Derek A T. CummingsSource :
- American journal of epidemiology [ 1476-6256 ] ; 2016.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- Wicri :
- geographic : Arabie saoudite.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Saudi Arabia.
- epidemiology : Asymptomatic Infections, Coronavirus Infections.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Humans, Infant, Middle Aged, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, Young Adult.
Abstract
Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed.
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwv452
PubMed: 26851269
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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<term>Child</term>
<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Humans</term>
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<term>Infections asymptomatiques (épidémiologie)</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed. </div>
</front>
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<name sortKey="Cauchemez, Simon" sort="Cauchemez, Simon" uniqKey="Cauchemez S" first="Simon" last="Cauchemez">Simon Cauchemez</name>
<name sortKey="Cummings, Derek A T" sort="Cummings, Derek A T" uniqKey="Cummings D" first="Derek A T" last="Cummings">Derek A T. Cummings</name>
<name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M" last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name>
<name sortKey="Hakeem, Rafat" sort="Hakeem, Rafat" uniqKey="Hakeem R" first="Rafat" last="Hakeem">Rafat Hakeem</name>
<name sortKey="Jombart, Thibaut" sort="Jombart, Thibaut" uniqKey="Jombart T" first="Thibaut" last="Jombart">Thibaut Jombart</name>
<name sortKey="Lessler, Justin" sort="Lessler, Justin" uniqKey="Lessler J" first="Justin" last="Lessler">Justin Lessler</name>
<name sortKey="Rodriquez Barraquer, Isabel" sort="Rodriquez Barraquer, Isabel" uniqKey="Rodriquez Barraquer I" first="Isabel" last="Rodriquez-Barraquer">Isabel Rodriquez-Barraquer</name>
<name sortKey="Salje, Henrik" sort="Salje, Henrik" uniqKey="Salje H" first="Henrik" last="Salje">Henrik Salje</name>
<name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, Maria D" sort="Van Kerkhove, Maria D" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M" first="Maria D" last="Van Kerkhove">Maria D. Van Kerkhove</name>
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