MersV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 000D66

High reproduction number of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in nosocomial outbreaks: mathematical modelling in Saudi Arabia and South Korea

Identifieur interne : 000D66 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000D65; suivant : 000D67

High reproduction number of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in nosocomial outbreaks: mathematical modelling in Saudi Arabia and South Korea

Auteurs : S. Choi [Corée du Sud] ; E. Jung [Corée du Sud] ; B. Y. Choi [Corée du Sud] ; Y. J. Hur [Corée du Sud] ; M. Ki [Corée du Sud]

Source :

The Journal of Hospital Infection [ 0195-6701 ] ; 2017.

RBID : PMC:7114943

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Arabie saoudite (épidémiologie), Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient (isolement et purification), Flambées de maladies, Humains, Incidence, Infection croisée (épidémiologie), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles statistiques, Nombre de reproduction de base, République de Corée (épidémiologie).
MESH :
- isolement et purification : Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient.
- épidémiologie : Arabie saoudite, Infection croisée, Infections à coronavirus, République de Corée.
- Flambées de maladies, Humains, Incidence, Modèles statistiques, Nombre de reproduction de base.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Basic Reproduction Number, Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Cross Infection (epidemiology), Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Incidence, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (isolation & purification), Models, Statistical, Republic of Korea (epidemiology), Saudi Arabia (epidemiology).
MESH :
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Cross Infection, Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia.
- isolation & purification : Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus.
- Basic Reproduction Number, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Incidence, Models, Statistical.

Abstract

SummaryBackground

Effective countermeasures against emerging infectious diseases require an understanding of transmission rate and basic reproduction number (R₀). R₀ for severe acute respiratory syndrome is generally considered to be >1, whereas that for Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is considered to be <1. However, this does not explain the large-scale outbreaks of MERS that occurred in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and South Korean hospitals.

Aim: To estimate R₀ in nosocomial outbreaks of MERS.

Methods

R₀ was estimated using the incidence decay with an exponential adjustment model. The KSA and Korean outbreaks were compared using a line listing of MERS cases compiled using publicly available sources. Serial intervals to estimate R₀ were assumed to be six to eight days. Study parameters [R₀ and countermeasures (d)] were estimated by fitting a model to the cumulative incidence epidemic curves using Matlab.

Findings

The estimated R₀ in Korea was 3.9 in the best-fit model, with a serial interval of six days. The first outbreak cluster in a hospital in Pyeongtaek had an R₀ of 4.04, and the largest outbreak cluster in a hospital in Samsung had an R₀ of 5.0. Assuming a six-day serial interval, the KSA outbreaks in Jeddah and Riyadh had R₀ values of 3.9 and 1.9, respectively.

Conclusion

R₀ for the nosocomial MERS outbreaks in KSA and South Korea was estimated to be in the range of 2–5, which is significantly higher than the previous estimate of <1. Therefore, more comprehensive countermeasures are needed to address these infections.

Url:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7114943

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhin.2017.09.017
PubMed: 28958834
PubMed Central: 7114943

Affiliations:

Le document en format XML

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<series><title level="j">The Journal of Hospital Infection</title>
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<term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Cross Infection (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Disease Outbreaks</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (isolation & purification)</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
<term>Republic of Korea (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Saudi Arabia (epidemiology)</term>
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<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Arabie saoudite (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient (isolement et purification)</term>
<term>Flambées de maladies</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Infection croisée (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Modèles statistiques</term>
<term>Nombre de reproduction de base</term>
<term>République de Corée (épidémiologie)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
<term>Cross Infection</term>
<term>Republic of Korea</term>
<term>Saudi Arabia</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolation & purification" xml:lang="en"><term>Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolement et purification" xml:lang="fr"><term>Coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Arabie saoudite</term>
<term>Infection croisée</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus</term>
<term>République de Corée</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term>
<term>Disease Outbreaks</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Models, Statistical</term>
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<term>Humains</term>
<term>Incidence</term>
<term>Modèles statistiques</term>
<term>Nombre de reproduction de base</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Summary</title>
<sec><title>Background</title>
<p>Effective countermeasures against emerging infectious diseases require an understanding of transmission rate and basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
). <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
 for severe acute respiratory syndrome is generally considered to be >1, whereas that for Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is considered to be <1. However, this does not explain the large-scale outbreaks of MERS that occurred in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and South Korean hospitals.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Aim</italic>
</bold>
: To estimate <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
 in nosocomial outbreaks of MERS.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p><italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
 was estimated using the incidence decay with an exponential adjustment model. The KSA and Korean outbreaks were compared using a line listing of MERS cases compiled using publicly available sources. Serial intervals to estimate <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
 were assumed to be six to eight days. Study parameters [<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
 and countermeasures (<italic>d</italic>
)] were estimated by fitting a model to the cumulative incidence epidemic curves using Matlab.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Findings</title>
<p>The estimated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
 in Korea was 3.9 in the best-fit model, with a serial interval of six days. The first outbreak cluster in a hospital in Pyeongtaek had an <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
 of 4.04, and the largest outbreak cluster in a hospital in Samsung had an <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
 of 5.0. Assuming a six-day serial interval, the KSA outbreaks in Jeddah and Riyadh had <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
 values of 3.9 and 1.9, respectively.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusion</title>
<p><italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
 for the nosocomial MERS outbreaks in KSA and South Korea was estimated to be in the range of 2–5, which is significantly higher than the previous estimate of <1. Therefore, more comprehensive countermeasures are needed to address these infections.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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<author><name sortKey="Jung, H D" uniqKey="Jung H">H.D. Jung</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, J S" uniqKey="Yang J">J.S. Yang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Park, Y S" uniqKey="Park Y">Y.S. Park</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lee, C" uniqKey="Lee C">C. Lee</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Park, G E" uniqKey="Park G">G.E. Park</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ko, J H" uniqKey="Ko J">J.H. Ko</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Peck, K R" uniqKey="Peck K">K.R. Peck</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lee, J Y" uniqKey="Lee J">J.Y. Lee</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lee, J Y" uniqKey="Lee J">J.Y. Lee</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cho, S Y" uniqKey="Cho S">S.Y. Cho</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cho, S Y" uniqKey="Cho S">S.Y. Cho</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kang, J M" uniqKey="Kang J">J.M. Kang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ha, Y E" uniqKey="Ha Y">Y.E. Ha</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Park, G E" uniqKey="Park G">G.E. Park</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lee, J Y" uniqKey="Lee J">J.Y. Lee</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ko, J H" uniqKey="Ko J">J.H. Ko</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
</listBibl>
</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Corée du Sud</li>
</country>
<region><li>Région capitale de Séoul</li>
</region>
<settlement><li>Séoul</li>
</settlement>
</list>
<tree><country name="Corée du Sud"><region name="Région capitale de Séoul"><name sortKey="Choi, S" sort="Choi, S" uniqKey="Choi S" first="S." last="Choi">S. Choi</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Choi, B Y" sort="Choi, B Y" uniqKey="Choi B" first="B. Y." last="Choi">B. Y. Choi</name>
<name sortKey="Choi, S" sort="Choi, S" uniqKey="Choi S" first="S." last="Choi">S. Choi</name>
<name sortKey="Hur, Y J" sort="Hur, Y J" uniqKey="Hur Y" first="Y. J." last="Hur">Y. J. Hur</name>
<name sortKey="Jung, E" sort="Jung, E" uniqKey="Jung E" first="E." last="Jung">E. Jung</name>
<name sortKey="Ki, M" sort="Ki, M" uniqKey="Ki M" first="M." last="Ki">M. Ki</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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   |wiki=    Sante
   |area=    MersV1
   |flux=    Main
   |étape=   Exploration
   |type=    RBID
   |clé=     PMC:7114943
   |texte=   High reproduction number of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in nosocomial outbreaks: mathematical modelling in Saudi Arabia and South Korea
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Serveur d'exploration MERS

High reproduction number of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in nosocomial outbreaks: mathematical modelling in Saudi Arabia and South Korea

High reproduction number of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in nosocomial outbreaks: mathematical modelling in Saudi Arabia and South Korea

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	Serveur d'exploration MERS
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