Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies' niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change.
Identifieur interne : 000429 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000428; suivant : 000430Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies' niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change.
Auteurs : Christine N. Meynard [États-Unis, France] ; Pierre-Emmanuel Gay [France] ; Michel Lecoq [France] ; Antoine Foucart [France] ; Cyril Piou [France, Maroc] ; Marie-Pierre Chapuis [France]Source :
- Global change biology [ 1365-2486 ] ; 2017.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- physiologie : Sauterelles.
- classification : Afrique, Animaux, Asie, Changement climatique, Climat, Dynamique des populations, Risque, Répartition des animaux, Sauterelles, Écosystème.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- classification : Grasshoppers.
- physiology : Grasshoppers.
- Africa, Animal Distribution, Animals, Asia, Climate, Climate Change, Ecosystem, Population Dynamics, Risk.
Abstract
The desert locust is an agricultural pest that is able to switch from a harmless solitarious stage, during recession periods, to swarms of gregarious individuals that disperse long distances and affect areas from western Africa to India during outbreak periods. Large outbreaks have been recorded through centuries, and the Food and Agriculture Organization keeps a long-term, large-scale monitoring survey database in the area. However, there is also a much less known subspecies that occupies a limited area in Southern Africa. We used large-scale climatic and occurrence data of the solitarious phase of each subspecies during recession periods to understand whether both subspecies climatic niches differ from each other, what is the current potential geographical distribution of each subspecies, and how climate change is likely to shift their potential distribution with respect to current conditions. We evaluated whether subspecies are significantly specialized along available climate gradients by using null models of background climatic differences within and between southern and northern ranges and applying niche similarity and niche equivalency tests. The results point to climatic niche conservatism between the two clades. We complemented this analysis with species distribution modeling to characterize current solitarious distributions and forecast potential recession range shifts under two extreme climate change scenarios at the 2050 and 2090 time horizon. Projections suggest that, at a global scale, the northern clade could contract its solitarious recession range, while the southern clade is likely to expand its recession range. However, local expansions were also predicted in the northern clade, in particular in southern and northern margins of the current geographical distribution. In conclusion, monitoring and management practices should remain in place in northern Africa, while in Southern Africa the potential for the subspecies to pose a threat in the future should be investigated more closely.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13739
PubMed: 28464493
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream PubMed, to step Corpus: Pour aller vers cette notice dans l'étape Curation :000430
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:28464493Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies' niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change.</title><author><name sortKey="Meynard, Christine N" sort="Meynard, Christine N" uniqKey="Meynard C" first="Christine N" last="Meynard">Christine N. Meynard</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>INRA, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>INRA, UMR CBGP, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gay, Pierre Emmanuel" sort="Gay, Pierre Emmanuel" uniqKey="Gay P" first="Pierre-Emmanuel" last="Gay">Pierre-Emmanuel Gay</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lecoq, Michel" sort="Lecoq, Michel" uniqKey="Lecoq M" first="Michel" last="Lecoq">Michel Lecoq</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Foucart, Antoine" sort="Foucart, Antoine" uniqKey="Foucart A" first="Antoine" last="Foucart">Antoine Foucart</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Piou, Cyril" sort="Piou, Cyril" uniqKey="Piou C" first="Cyril" last="Piou">Cyril Piou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CNLAA, Inezgane, Agadir, Morocco.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Maroc</country><wicri:regionArea>CNLAA, Inezgane, Agadir</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Ibn Zohr University, Agadir, Morocco.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Maroc</country><wicri:regionArea>Ibn Zohr University, Agadir</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chapuis, Marie Pierre" sort="Chapuis, Marie Pierre" uniqKey="Chapuis M" first="Marie-Pierre" last="Chapuis">Marie-Pierre Chapuis</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2017">2017</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:28464493</idno><idno type="pmid">28464493</idno><idno type="doi">10.1111/gcb.13739</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000430</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000430</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000429</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000429</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies' niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change.</title><author><name sortKey="Meynard, Christine N" sort="Meynard, Christine N" uniqKey="Meynard C" first="Christine N" last="Meynard">Christine N. Meynard</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>INRA, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>INRA, UMR CBGP, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gay, Pierre Emmanuel" sort="Gay, Pierre Emmanuel" uniqKey="Gay P" first="Pierre-Emmanuel" last="Gay">Pierre-Emmanuel Gay</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lecoq, Michel" sort="Lecoq, Michel" uniqKey="Lecoq M" first="Michel" last="Lecoq">Michel Lecoq</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Foucart, Antoine" sort="Foucart, Antoine" uniqKey="Foucart A" first="Antoine" last="Foucart">Antoine Foucart</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Piou, Cyril" sort="Piou, Cyril" uniqKey="Piou C" first="Cyril" last="Piou">Cyril Piou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CNLAA, Inezgane, Agadir, Morocco.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Maroc</country><wicri:regionArea>CNLAA, Inezgane, Agadir</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Ibn Zohr University, Agadir, Morocco.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Maroc</country><wicri:regionArea>Ibn Zohr University, Agadir</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chapuis, Marie Pierre" sort="Chapuis, Marie Pierre" uniqKey="Chapuis M" first="Marie-Pierre" last="Chapuis">Marie-Pierre Chapuis</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Global change biology</title><idno type="eISSN">1365-2486</idno><imprint><date when="2017" type="published">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Africa (MeSH)</term><term>Animal Distribution (MeSH)</term><term>Animals (MeSH)</term><term>Asia (MeSH)</term><term>Climate (MeSH)</term><term>Climate Change (MeSH)</term><term>Ecosystem (MeSH)</term><term>Grasshoppers (classification)</term><term>Grasshoppers (physiology)</term><term>Population Dynamics (MeSH)</term><term>Risk (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Afrique (MeSH)</term><term>Animaux (MeSH)</term><term>Asie (MeSH)</term><term>Changement climatique (MeSH)</term><term>Climat (MeSH)</term><term>Dynamique des populations (MeSH)</term><term>Risque (MeSH)</term><term>Répartition des animaux (MeSH)</term><term>Sauterelles (classification)</term><term>Sauterelles (physiologie)</term><term>Écosystème (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="classification" xml:lang="en"><term>Grasshoppers</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Sauterelles</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="physiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Grasshoppers</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Africa</term><term>Animal Distribution</term><term>Animals</term><term>Asia</term><term>Climate</term><term>Climate Change</term><term>Ecosystem</term><term>Population Dynamics</term><term>Risk</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="classification" xml:lang="fr"><term>Afrique</term><term>Animaux</term><term>Asie</term><term>Changement climatique</term><term>Climat</term><term>Dynamique des populations</term><term>Risque</term><term>Répartition des animaux</term><term>Sauterelles</term><term>Écosystème</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The desert locust is an agricultural pest that is able to switch from a harmless solitarious stage, during recession periods, to swarms of gregarious individuals that disperse long distances and affect areas from western Africa to India during outbreak periods. Large outbreaks have been recorded through centuries, and the Food and Agriculture Organization keeps a long-term, large-scale monitoring survey database in the area. However, there is also a much less known subspecies that occupies a limited area in Southern Africa. We used large-scale climatic and occurrence data of the solitarious phase of each subspecies during recession periods to understand whether both subspecies climatic niches differ from each other, what is the current potential geographical distribution of each subspecies, and how climate change is likely to shift their potential distribution with respect to current conditions. We evaluated whether subspecies are significantly specialized along available climate gradients by using null models of background climatic differences within and between southern and northern ranges and applying niche similarity and niche equivalency tests. The results point to climatic niche conservatism between the two clades. We complemented this analysis with species distribution modeling to characterize current solitarious distributions and forecast potential recession range shifts under two extreme climate change scenarios at the 2050 and 2090 time horizon. Projections suggest that, at a global scale, the northern clade could contract its solitarious recession range, while the southern clade is likely to expand its recession range. However, local expansions were also predicted in the northern clade, in particular in southern and northern margins of the current geographical distribution. In conclusion, monitoring and management practices should remain in place in northern Africa, while in Southern Africa the potential for the subspecies to pose a threat in the future should be investigated more closely.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" IndexingMethod="Curated" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">28464493</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2018</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>04</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>02</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1365-2486</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>23</Volume><Issue>11</Issue><PubDate><Year>2017</Year><Month>11</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Global change biology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Glob Chang Biol</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies' niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>4739-4749</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/gcb.13739</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>The desert locust is an agricultural pest that is able to switch from a harmless solitarious stage, during recession periods, to swarms of gregarious individuals that disperse long distances and affect areas from western Africa to India during outbreak periods. Large outbreaks have been recorded through centuries, and the Food and Agriculture Organization keeps a long-term, large-scale monitoring survey database in the area. However, there is also a much less known subspecies that occupies a limited area in Southern Africa. We used large-scale climatic and occurrence data of the solitarious phase of each subspecies during recession periods to understand whether both subspecies climatic niches differ from each other, what is the current potential geographical distribution of each subspecies, and how climate change is likely to shift their potential distribution with respect to current conditions. We evaluated whether subspecies are significantly specialized along available climate gradients by using null models of background climatic differences within and between southern and northern ranges and applying niche similarity and niche equivalency tests. The results point to climatic niche conservatism between the two clades. We complemented this analysis with species distribution modeling to characterize current solitarious distributions and forecast potential recession range shifts under two extreme climate change scenarios at the 2050 and 2090 time horizon. Projections suggest that, at a global scale, the northern clade could contract its solitarious recession range, while the southern clade is likely to expand its recession range. However, local expansions were also predicted in the northern clade, in particular in southern and northern margins of the current geographical distribution. In conclusion, monitoring and management practices should remain in place in northern Africa, while in Southern Africa the potential for the subspecies to pose a threat in the future should be investigated more closely.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Meynard</LastName><ForeName>Christine N</ForeName><Initials>CN</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-5983-6289</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INRA, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gay</LastName><ForeName>Pierre-Emmanuel</ForeName><Initials>PE</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lecoq</LastName><ForeName>Michel</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Foucart</LastName><ForeName>Antoine</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Piou</LastName><ForeName>Cyril</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CNLAA, Inezgane, Agadir, Morocco.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ibn Zohr University, Agadir, Morocco.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chapuis</LastName><ForeName>Marie-Pierre</ForeName><Initials>MP</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CIRAD, UMR CBGP, Montpellier, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2017</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>01</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Glob Chang Biol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9888746</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1354-1013</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000349" MajorTopicYN="N">Africa</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D063147" MajorTopicYN="Y">Animal Distribution</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000818" MajorTopicYN="N">Animals</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D001208" MajorTopicYN="N">Asia</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002980" MajorTopicYN="N">Climate</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D057231" MajorTopicYN="Y">Climate Change</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D017753" MajorTopicYN="Y">Ecosystem</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006110" MajorTopicYN="N">Grasshoppers</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000145" MajorTopicYN="N">classification</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000502" MajorTopicYN="Y">physiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011157" MajorTopicYN="N">Population Dynamics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012306" MajorTopicYN="N">Risk</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Schistocerca gregaria
</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">agriculture</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">forecasting</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">niche differentiation</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">niche overlap</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">pest</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">phase polyphenism</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">species distribution models</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2017</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>27</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2017</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>30</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2017</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2017</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>4</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2018</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>5</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2017</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">28464493</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1111/gcb.13739</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Sante/explor/MaghrebDataLibMedV2/Data/PubMed/Curation
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000429 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Curation/biblio.hfd -nk 000429 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Wicri/Sante
|area= MaghrebDataLibMedV2
|flux= PubMed
|étape= Curation
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:28464493
|texte= Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies' niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Curation/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:28464493" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Curation/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a MaghrebDataLibMedV2
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.38. |  |