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Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of Leishmania vectors in the Mediterranean basin: impact of climate change.

Identifieur interne : 000329 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000328; suivant : 000330

Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of Leishmania vectors in the Mediterranean basin: impact of climate change.

Auteurs : Bilel Chalghaf ; Jomâa Chemkhi ; Benjamin Mayala ; Myriam Harrabi ; Goze Bertin Benie ; Edwin Michael ; Afif Ben Salah

Source :

RBID : pubmed:30092826

English descriptors

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of sand flies during the last decades has shifted northward from latitudes below 45°N in southern Europe to latitudes just above 50

RESULTS

Model performance was generally high for the included species with a specificity (true negative rate) ranging from 81.03 to 96.52% (mean = 86.94%) and a sensitivity (true positive rate) ranging from 87.93 to 100% (mean = 96.98%). Our work evidenced the hypothesis of the widespread of Leishmania vectors under climate change scenarios. All of the studied species are prospected to gain new areas that are actually not suitable for vectors' survival. Phlebotomine sand flies are prospected to invade extra-Mediterranean regions, especially western and central Europe.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirmed the importance of environmental and climate factors on the distribution of leishmaniasis vectors and demonstrated the performance of ecological niche modeling in the prediction of the geographical spread of vector-borne diseases. Ecological niche modeling should be considered in the future as a valuable tool in addition to experimental laboratory studies for a better understanding of the biology of vector species.


DOI: 10.1186/s13071-018-3019-x
PubMed: 30092826
PubMed Central: PMC6085715

Links to Exploration step

pubmed:30092826

Le document en format XML

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<term>Animal Distribution (MeSH)</term>
<term>Animals (MeSH)</term>
<term>Climate Change (MeSH)</term>
<term>Insect Vectors (MeSH)</term>
<term>Leishmania (physiology)</term>
<term>Leishmaniasis (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Leishmaniasis (transmission)</term>
<term>Mediterranean Region (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Models, Biological (MeSH)</term>
<term>Phlebotomus (parasitology)</term>
<term>Phlebotomus (physiology)</term>
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<term>Leishmaniasis</term>
<term>Mediterranean Region</term>
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<term>Phlebotomus</term>
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<term>Leishmania</term>
<term>Phlebotomus</term>
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<term>Leishmaniasis</term>
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<term>Animal Distribution</term>
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<b>BACKGROUND</b>
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<p>Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of sand flies during the last decades has shifted northward from latitudes below 45°N in southern Europe to latitudes just above 50</p>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>RESULTS</b>
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<p>Model performance was generally high for the included species with a specificity (true negative rate) ranging from 81.03 to 96.52% (mean = 86.94%) and a sensitivity (true positive rate) ranging from 87.93 to 100% (mean = 96.98%). Our work evidenced the hypothesis of the widespread of Leishmania vectors under climate change scenarios. All of the studied species are prospected to gain new areas that are actually not suitable for vectors' survival. Phlebotomine sand flies are prospected to invade extra-Mediterranean regions, especially western and central Europe.</p>
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<b>CONCLUSIONS</b>
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<p>Our study confirmed the importance of environmental and climate factors on the distribution of leishmaniasis vectors and demonstrated the performance of ecological niche modeling in the prediction of the geographical spread of vector-borne diseases. Ecological niche modeling should be considered in the future as a valuable tool in addition to experimental laboratory studies for a better understanding of the biology of vector species.</p>
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<AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of sand flies during the last decades has shifted northward from latitudes below 45°N in southern Europe to latitudes just above 50
<sup></sup>
N. Recent studies show that some phlebotomine sand flies were recorded in several parts of Germany and Belgium. In central Europe, some autochthone leishmaniasis cases are being recorded in regions traditionally regarded as leishmaniasis-free. An important challenge is to predict the geographical distribution of leishmaniasis vectors under new climatic conditions. In this study, we attempted to predict the current distribution of six leishmaniasis vectors in the Mediterranean basin and forecast species' geographical shift under future climate scenarios using an ensemble ecological niche modeling approach. Species records were obtained from scientific surveys published in the research literature between 2006 and 2016. A series of climate metrics describing temperature and precipitation in the study area under two climatic scenarios were obtained from WorldClim database. A consensus model was derived from six varieties of modeling approaches (regression, machine learning and classification techniques) in order to ensure valid prediction of distribution of vectors under different climate scenarios.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Model performance was generally high for the included species with a specificity (true negative rate) ranging from 81.03 to 96.52% (mean = 86.94%) and a sensitivity (true positive rate) ranging from 87.93 to 100% (mean = 96.98%). Our work evidenced the hypothesis of the widespread of Leishmania vectors under climate change scenarios. All of the studied species are prospected to gain new areas that are actually not suitable for vectors' survival. Phlebotomine sand flies are prospected to invade extra-Mediterranean regions, especially western and central Europe.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Our study confirmed the importance of environmental and climate factors on the distribution of leishmaniasis vectors and demonstrated the performance of ecological niche modeling in the prediction of the geographical spread of vector-borne diseases. Ecological niche modeling should be considered in the future as a valuable tool in addition to experimental laboratory studies for a better understanding of the biology of vector species.</AbstractText>
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<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Department of Family and Community Medicine, Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain.</Affiliation>
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