Predicting the Current and Future Potential Distributions of Lymphatic Filariasis in Africa Using Maximum Entropy Ecological Niche Modelling
Identifieur interne : 004526 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 004525; suivant : 004527Predicting the Current and Future Potential Distributions of Lymphatic Filariasis in Africa Using Maximum Entropy Ecological Niche Modelling
Auteurs : Hannah Slater ; Edwin MichaelSource :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2012.
Abstract
Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease) in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0032202
PubMed: 22359670
PubMed Central: 3281123
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease) in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.</p>
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<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS One</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosone</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS ONE</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1932-6203</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>San Francisco, USA</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">22359670</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3281123</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">PONE-D-10-03611</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0032202</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Biology</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Ecology</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Medicine</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Epidemiology</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group><subject>Global Health</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject>
<subj-group><subject>Neglected Tropical Diseases</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group><subject>Parasitic Diseases</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group><subject>Tropical Diseases (Non-Neglected)</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<subj-group><subject>Non-Clinical Medicine</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group><subject>Public Health</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Predicting the Current and Future Potential Distributions of Lymphatic Filariasis in Africa Using Maximum Entropy Ecological Niche Modelling</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Ecological Niche and Filariasis Distribution</alt-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Slater</surname>
<given-names>Hannah</given-names>
</name>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Michael</surname>
<given-names>Edwin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"></xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="fn1"><sup>¤</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Baylis</surname>
<given-names>Matthew</given-names>
</name>
<role>Editor</role>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="edit1">University of Liverpool, United Kingdom</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail: <email>emichael@nd.edu</email>
</corresp>
<fn fn-type="con"><p>Conceived and designed the experiments: EM HS. Analyzed the data: HS EM. Wrote the paper: HS EM.</p>
</fn>
<fn id="fn1" fn-type="current-aff"><label>¤</label>
<p>Current address: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America</p>
</fn>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2012</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>16</day>
<month>2</month>
<year>2012</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>7</volume>
<issue>2</issue>
<elocation-id>e32202</elocation-id>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>20</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2010</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>24</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2012</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>Slater, Michael. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2012</copyright-year>
</permissions>
<abstract><p>Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease) in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="14"></page-count>
</counts>
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</front>
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