Modelling the distribution and transmission intensity of lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa prior to scaling up interventions: integrated use of geostatistical and mathematical modelling
Identifieur interne : 000E08 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000E07; suivant : 000E09Modelling the distribution and transmission intensity of lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa prior to scaling up interventions: integrated use of geostatistical and mathematical modelling
Auteurs : Paula Moraga [Royaume-Uni] ; Jorge Cano [Royaume-Uni] ; Rebecca F. Baggaley [Royaume-Uni] ; John O. Gyapong [Ghana] ; Sammy M. Njenga [Kenya] ; Birgit Nikolay [Royaume-Uni] ; Emmanuel Davies [Nigeria] ; Maria P. Rebollo [États-Unis] ; Rachel L. Pullan [Royaume-Uni] ; Moses J. Bockarie [Royaume-Uni] ; T. Déirdre Hollingsworth [Royaume-Uni] ; Manoj Gambhir [Australie] ; Simon J. Brooker [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Parasites & Vectors [ 1756-3305 ] ; 2015.
Abstract
Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination. The ability to interrupt transmission is, partly, influenced by the underlying intensity of transmission and its geographical variation. This information can also help guide the design of targeted surveillance activities. The present study uses a combination of geostatistical and mathematical modelling to predict the prevalence and transmission intensity of LF prior to the implementation of large-scale control in sub-Saharan Africa.
A systematic search of the literature was undertaken to identify surveys on the prevalence of
The literature search identified 1267 surveys that provide suitable data on the prevalence of mf and 2817 surveys that report the prevalence of antigenaemia. Distinct spatial predictions arose from the models for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence, with a wider geographical distribution when using ICT-based data. The vector distribution maps demonstrated the spatial variation of LF vector species. Mathematical modelling showed that the reproduction number (R0) estimates vary from 2.7 to 30, with large variations between and within regions.
LF transmission is highly heterogeneous, and the developed maps can help guide intervention, monitoring and surveillance strategies as countries progress towards LF elimination.
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1166-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s13071-015-1166-x
PubMed: 26496983
PubMed Central: 4620019
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Rebollo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff6">NTD Support Center, Task Force for Global Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>NTD Support Center, Task Force for Global Health, Emory University, Atlanta</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pullan, Rachel L" sort="Pullan, Rachel L" uniqKey="Pullan R" first="Rachel L." last="Pullan">Rachel L. Pullan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bockarie, Moses J" sort="Bockarie, Moses J" uniqKey="Bockarie M" first="Moses J." last="Bockarie">Moses J. Bockarie</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff7">Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School for Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School for Tropical Medicine, Liverpool</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hollingsworth, T Deirdre" sort="Hollingsworth, T Deirdre" uniqKey="Hollingsworth T" first="T. Déirdre" last="Hollingsworth">T. Déirdre Hollingsworth</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff8">Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff9">School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gambhir, Manoj" sort="Gambhir, Manoj" uniqKey="Gambhir M" first="Manoj" last="Gambhir">Manoj Gambhir</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff10">Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brooker, Simon J" sort="Brooker, Simon J" uniqKey="Brooker S" first="Simon J." last="Brooker">Simon J. Brooker</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">26496983</idno><idno type="pmc">4620019</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4620019</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:4620019</idno><idno type="doi">10.1186/s13071-015-1166-x</idno><date when="2015">2015</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000E09</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000E09</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000E08</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000E08</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Modelling the distribution and transmission intensity of lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa prior to scaling up interventions: integrated use of geostatistical and mathematical modelling</title><author><name sortKey="Moraga, Paula" sort="Moraga, Paula" uniqKey="Moraga P" first="Paula" last="Moraga">Paula Moraga</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cano, Jorge" sort="Cano, Jorge" uniqKey="Cano J" first="Jorge" last="Cano">Jorge Cano</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baggaley, Rebecca F" sort="Baggaley, Rebecca F" uniqKey="Baggaley R" first="Rebecca F." last="Baggaley">Rebecca F. Baggaley</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff2">Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gyapong, John O" sort="Gyapong, John O" uniqKey="Gyapong J" first="John O." last="Gyapong">John O. Gyapong</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="Aff3">School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra Ghana</nlm:aff><orgName type="university">Université du Ghana</orgName><country>Ghana</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Accra</settlement><settlement type="town">Legon (Ghana)</settlement><region type="region">Région du Grand Accra</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Njenga, Sammy M" sort="Njenga, Sammy M" uniqKey="Njenga S" first="Sammy M." last="Njenga">Sammy M. Njenga</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff4">Eastern and Southern Africa Centre of International Parasite Control, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Kenya</country><wicri:regionArea>Eastern and Southern Africa Centre of International Parasite Control, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nikolay, Birgit" sort="Nikolay, Birgit" uniqKey="Nikolay B" first="Birgit" last="Nikolay">Birgit Nikolay</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Davies, Emmanuel" sort="Davies, Emmanuel" uniqKey="Davies E" first="Emmanuel" last="Davies">Emmanuel Davies</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff5">Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Nigeria</country><wicri:regionArea>Ministry of Health, Abuja</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rebollo, Maria P" sort="Rebollo, Maria P" uniqKey="Rebollo M" first="Maria P." last="Rebollo">Maria P. Rebollo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff6">NTD Support Center, Task Force for Global Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>NTD Support Center, Task Force for Global Health, Emory University, Atlanta</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pullan, Rachel L" sort="Pullan, Rachel L" uniqKey="Pullan R" first="Rachel L." last="Pullan">Rachel L. Pullan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bockarie, Moses J" sort="Bockarie, Moses J" uniqKey="Bockarie M" first="Moses J." last="Bockarie">Moses J. Bockarie</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff7">Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School for Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School for Tropical Medicine, Liverpool</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hollingsworth, T Deirdre" sort="Hollingsworth, T Deirdre" uniqKey="Hollingsworth T" first="T. Déirdre" last="Hollingsworth">T. Déirdre Hollingsworth</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff8">Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff9">School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gambhir, Manoj" sort="Gambhir, Manoj" uniqKey="Gambhir M" first="Manoj" last="Gambhir">Manoj Gambhir</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff10">Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brooker, Simon J" sort="Brooker, Simon J" uniqKey="Brooker S" first="Simon J." last="Brooker">Simon J. Brooker</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Parasites & Vectors</title><idno type="eISSN">1756-3305</idno><imprint><date when="2015">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination. The ability to interrupt transmission is, partly, influenced by the underlying intensity of transmission and its geographical variation. This information can also help guide the design of targeted surveillance activities. The present study uses a combination of geostatistical and mathematical modelling to predict the prevalence and transmission intensity of LF prior to the implementation of large-scale control in sub-Saharan Africa.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>A systematic search of the literature was undertaken to identify surveys on the prevalence of <italic>Wuchereria bancrofti</italic> microfilaraemia (mf), based on blood smears, and on the prevalence of antigenaemia, based on the use of an immuno-chromatographic card test (ICT). Using a suite of environmental and demographic data, spatiotemporal multivariate models were fitted separately for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence within a Bayesian framework and used to make predictions for non-sampled areas. Maps of the dominant vector species of LF were also developed. The maps of predicted prevalence and vector distribution were linked to mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of LF to infer the intensity of transmission, quantified by the basic reproductive number (R<sub>0</sub>).</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The literature search identified 1267 surveys that provide suitable data on the prevalence of mf and 2817 surveys that report the prevalence of antigenaemia. Distinct spatial predictions arose from the models for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence, with a wider geographical distribution when using ICT-based data. The vector distribution maps demonstrated the spatial variation of LF vector species. Mathematical modelling showed that the reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) estimates vary from 2.7 to 30, with large variations between and within regions.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>LF transmission is highly heterogeneous, and the developed maps can help guide intervention, monitoring and surveillance strategies as countries progress towards LF elimination.</p></sec><sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title><p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1166-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ramaiah, Kd" uniqKey="Ramaiah K">KD Ramaiah</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ottesen, Ea" uniqKey="Ottesen E">EA Ottesen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Garrett Jones, C" uniqKey="Garrett Jones C">C 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Parasit Vectors</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Parasit Vectors</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Parasites & Vectors</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1756-3305</issn><publisher><publisher-name>BioMed Central</publisher-name><publisher-loc>London</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">26496983</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4620019</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">1166</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1186/s13071-015-1166-x</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Modelling the distribution and transmission intensity of lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa prior to scaling up interventions: integrated use of geostatistical and mathematical modelling</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Moraga</surname><given-names>Paula</given-names></name><address><email>paula.moraga-serrano@lshtm.ac.uk</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><surname>Cano</surname><given-names>Jorge</given-names></name><address><email>jcano.ortega@lshtm.ac.uk</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Baggaley</surname><given-names>Rebecca F.</given-names></name><address><email>rebecca.baggaley@lshtm.ac.uk</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff2"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Gyapong</surname><given-names>John O.</given-names></name><address><email>jgyapong@ug.edu.gh</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff3"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Njenga</surname><given-names>Sammy M.</given-names></name><address><email>SNjenga@kemri.org</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff4"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Nikolay</surname><given-names>Birgit</given-names></name><address><email>birgit.nikolay@lshtm.ac.uk</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Davies</surname><given-names>Emmanuel</given-names></name><address><email>enimed2003@yahoo.com</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff5"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Rebollo</surname><given-names>Maria P.</given-names></name><address><email>mrebollo@taskforce.org</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff6"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Pullan</surname><given-names>Rachel L.</given-names></name><address><email>Rachel.Pullan@lshtm.ac.uk</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bockarie</surname><given-names>Moses J.</given-names></name><address><email>Moses.Bockarie@liverpool.ac.uk</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff7"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hollingsworth</surname><given-names>T. Déirdre</given-names></name><address><email>deirdre.hollingsworth@warwick.ac.uk</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff8"></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff9"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Gambhir</surname><given-names>Manoj</given-names></name><address><email>manoj.gambhir@monash.edu</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff10"></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Brooker</surname><given-names>Simon J.</given-names></name><address><email>Simon.Brooker@lshtm.ac.uk</email></address><xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1"></xref></contrib><aff id="Aff1"><label></label>Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</aff><aff id="Aff2"><label></label>Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK</aff><aff id="Aff3"><label></label>School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra Ghana</aff><aff id="Aff4"><label></label>Eastern and Southern Africa Centre of International Parasite Control, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya</aff><aff id="Aff5"><label></label>Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria</aff><aff id="Aff6"><label></label>NTD Support Center, Task Force for Global Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA</aff><aff id="Aff7"><label></label>Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School for Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK</aff><aff id="Aff8"><label></label>Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK</aff><aff id="Aff9"><label></label>School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK</aff><aff id="Aff10"><label></label>Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia</aff></contrib-group><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>24</day><month>10</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>24</day><month>10</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>8</volume><elocation-id>560</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>15</day><month>6</month><year>2015</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>14</day><month>10</month><year>2015</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© Moraga et al. 2015</copyright-statement><license license-type="OpenAccess"><license-p><bold>Open Access</bold> This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link>), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/</ext-link>) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract id="Abs1"><sec><title>Background</title><p>Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination. The ability to interrupt transmission is, partly, influenced by the underlying intensity of transmission and its geographical variation. This information can also help guide the design of targeted surveillance activities. The present study uses a combination of geostatistical and mathematical modelling to predict the prevalence and transmission intensity of LF prior to the implementation of large-scale control in sub-Saharan Africa.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>A systematic search of the literature was undertaken to identify surveys on the prevalence of <italic>Wuchereria bancrofti</italic> microfilaraemia (mf), based on blood smears, and on the prevalence of antigenaemia, based on the use of an immuno-chromatographic card test (ICT). Using a suite of environmental and demographic data, spatiotemporal multivariate models were fitted separately for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence within a Bayesian framework and used to make predictions for non-sampled areas. Maps of the dominant vector species of LF were also developed. The maps of predicted prevalence and vector distribution were linked to mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of LF to infer the intensity of transmission, quantified by the basic reproductive number (R<sub>0</sub>).</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The literature search identified 1267 surveys that provide suitable data on the prevalence of mf and 2817 surveys that report the prevalence of antigenaemia. Distinct spatial predictions arose from the models for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence, with a wider geographical distribution when using ICT-based data. The vector distribution maps demonstrated the spatial variation of LF vector species. Mathematical modelling showed that the reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) estimates vary from 2.7 to 30, with large variations between and within regions.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>LF transmission is highly heterogeneous, and the developed maps can help guide intervention, monitoring and surveillance strategies as countries progress towards LF elimination.</p></sec><sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title><p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1166-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p></sec></abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><title>Keywords</title><kwd>Lymphatic filariasis</kwd><kwd><italic>Wuchereria bancrofti</italic></kwd><kwd>Bayesian geostatistical modelling</kwd><kwd>Mathematical modelling</kwd><kwd>Basic reproductive number</kwd><kwd>Sub-Saharan Africa</kwd></kwd-group><custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>issue-copyright-statement</meta-name><meta-value>© The Author(s) 2015</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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