Development of a prediction model for bacteremia in hospitalized adults with cellulitis to aid in the efficient use of blood cultures: a retrospective cohort study
Identifieur interne : 000C62 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000C61; suivant : 000C63Development of a prediction model for bacteremia in hospitalized adults with cellulitis to aid in the efficient use of blood cultures: a retrospective cohort study
Auteurs : Chun-Yuan Lee [Taïwan] ; Calvin M. Kunin [États-Unis] ; Chung Chang [Taïwan] ; Susan Shin-Jung Lee [Taïwan] ; Yao-Shen Chen [Taïwan] ; Hung-Chin Tsai [Taïwan]Source :
- BMC Infectious Diseases [ 1471-2334 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
Cellulitis is a common infectious disease. Although blood culture is frequently used in the diagnosis and subsequent treatment of cellulitis, it is a contentious diagnostic test. To help clinicians determine which patients should undergo blood culture for the management of cellulitis, a diagnostic scoring system referred to as the Bacteremia Score of Cellulitis was developed.
Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed as part of a retrospective cohort study of all adults diagnosed with cellulitis in a tertiary teaching hospital in Taiwan in 2013. Patients who underwent blood culture were used to develop a diagnostic prediction model where the main outcome measures were true bacteremia in cellulitis cases. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to demonstrate the predictive power of the model, and bootstrapping was then used to validate the performance.
Three hundred fifty one cases with cellulitis who underwent blood culture were enrolled. The overall prevalence of true bacteremia was 33/351 cases (9.4 %). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed optimal diagnostic discrimination for the combination of age ≥65 years (odds ratio [OR] = 3.9; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.5–10.1), involvement of non-lower extremities (OR = 4.0; 95 % CI, 1.5–10.6), liver cirrhosis (OR = 6.8; 95 % CI, 1.8–25.3), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (OR = 15.2; 95 % CI, 4.8–48.0). These four independent factors were included in the initial formula, and the AUC for this combination of factors was 0.867 (95 % CI, 0.806–0.928). The rounded formula was 1 × (age ≥65 years) + 1.5 × (involvement of non-lower extremities) + 2 × (liver cirrhosis) + 2.5 × (SIRS). The overall prevalence of true bacteremia (9.4 %) in this study could be lowered to 1.0 % (low risk group, score ≤1.5) or raised to 14.7 % (medium risk group, score 2–3.5) and 41.2 % (high risk group, score ≥4.0), depending on different clinical scores.
Determining the risk of bacteremia in patients with cellulitis will allow a more efficient use of blood cultures in the diagnosis and treatment of this condition. External validation of this preliminary scoring system in future trials is needed to optimize the test.
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1907-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-016-1907-2
PubMed: 27756213
PubMed Central: 5070006
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>Cellulitis is a common infectious disease. Although blood culture is frequently used in the diagnosis and subsequent treatment of cellulitis, it is a contentious diagnostic test. To help clinicians determine which patients should undergo blood culture for the management of cellulitis, a diagnostic scoring system referred to as the Bacteremia Score of Cellulitis was developed.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed as part of a retrospective cohort study of all adults diagnosed with cellulitis in a tertiary teaching hospital in Taiwan in 2013. Patients who underwent blood culture were used to develop a diagnostic prediction model where the main outcome measures were true bacteremia in cellulitis cases. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to demonstrate the predictive power of the model, and bootstrapping was then used to validate the performance.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>Three hundred fifty one cases with cellulitis who underwent blood culture were enrolled. The overall prevalence of true bacteremia was 33/351 cases (9.4 %). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed optimal diagnostic discrimination for the combination of age ≥65 years (odds ratio [OR] = 3.9; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.5–10.1), involvement of non-lower extremities (OR = 4.0; 95 % CI, 1.5–10.6), liver cirrhosis (OR = 6.8; 95 % CI, 1.8–25.3), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (OR = 15.2; 95 % CI, 4.8–48.0). These four independent factors were included in the initial formula, and the AUC for this combination of factors was 0.867 (95 % CI, 0.806–0.928). The rounded formula was 1 × (age ≥65 years) + 1.5 × (involvement of non-lower extremities) + 2 × (liver cirrhosis) + 2.5 × (SIRS). The overall prevalence of true bacteremia (9.4 %) in this study could be lowered to 1.0 % (low risk group, score ≤1.5) or raised to 14.7 % (medium risk group, score 2–3.5) and 41.2 % (high risk group, score ≥4.0), depending on different clinical scores.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Determining the risk of bacteremia in patients with cellulitis will allow a more efficient use of blood cultures in the diagnosis and treatment of this condition. External validation of this preliminary scoring system in future trials is needed to optimize the test.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title>
<p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1907-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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<author><name sortKey="Jadavji, T" uniqKey="Jadavji T">T Jadavji</name>
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<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">BMC Infect Dis</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">BMC Infect. Dis</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>BMC Infectious Diseases</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1471-2334</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>BioMed Central</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>London</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">27756213</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">5070006</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">1907</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1186/s12879-016-1907-2</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Development of a prediction model for bacteremia in hospitalized adults with cellulitis to aid in the efficient use of blood cultures: a retrospective cohort study</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lee</surname>
<given-names>Chun-Yuan</given-names>
</name>
<address><email>leecy8801131@gmail.com</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff1">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Kunin</surname>
<given-names>Calvin M.</given-names>
</name>
<address><email>ckunin@columbus.rr.com</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff2">2</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff3">3</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chang</surname>
<given-names>Chung</given-names>
</name>
<address><email>cchang@math.nsysu.edu.tw</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff4">4</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lee</surname>
<given-names>Susan Shin-Jung</given-names>
</name>
<address><email>ssjlee@vghks.gov.tw</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff5">5</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff6">6</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Yao-Shen</given-names>
</name>
<address><email>yschen@vghks.gov.tw</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff5">5</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff6">6</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff7">7</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><surname>Tsai</surname>
<given-names>Hung-Chin</given-names>
</name>
<address><email>hctsai1011@yahoo.com.tw</email>
</address>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff5">5</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff6">6</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="Aff1"><label>1</label>
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan</aff>
<aff id="Aff2"><label>2</label>
Department of Internal Medicine (CMK), Ohio State University, Columbus, OH USA</aff>
<aff id="Aff3"><label>3</label>
Department of Internal Medicine (CMK), University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ USA</aff>
<aff id="Aff4"><label>4</label>
Department of Applied Mathematics, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan</aff>
<aff id="Aff5"><label>5</label>
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan</aff>
<aff id="Aff6"><label>6</label>
Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan</aff>
<aff id="Aff7"><label>7</label>
Graduate Institute of Science Education and Environmental Education, National Kaohsiung Normal University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan</aff>
</contrib-group>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>19</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>19</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>16</volume>
<elocation-id>581</elocation-id>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>21</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2016</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>11</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2016</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>© The Author(s). 2016</copyright-statement>
<license license-type="OpenAccess"><license-p><bold>Open Access</bold>
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link>
), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/</ext-link>
) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract id="Abs1"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>Cellulitis is a common infectious disease. Although blood culture is frequently used in the diagnosis and subsequent treatment of cellulitis, it is a contentious diagnostic test. To help clinicians determine which patients should undergo blood culture for the management of cellulitis, a diagnostic scoring system referred to as the Bacteremia Score of Cellulitis was developed.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed as part of a retrospective cohort study of all adults diagnosed with cellulitis in a tertiary teaching hospital in Taiwan in 2013. Patients who underwent blood culture were used to develop a diagnostic prediction model where the main outcome measures were true bacteremia in cellulitis cases. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to demonstrate the predictive power of the model, and bootstrapping was then used to validate the performance.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>Three hundred fifty one cases with cellulitis who underwent blood culture were enrolled. The overall prevalence of true bacteremia was 33/351 cases (9.4 %). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed optimal diagnostic discrimination for the combination of age ≥65 years (odds ratio [OR] = 3.9; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.5–10.1), involvement of non-lower extremities (OR = 4.0; 95 % CI, 1.5–10.6), liver cirrhosis (OR = 6.8; 95 % CI, 1.8–25.3), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) (OR = 15.2; 95 % CI, 4.8–48.0). These four independent factors were included in the initial formula, and the AUC for this combination of factors was 0.867 (95 % CI, 0.806–0.928). The rounded formula was 1 × (age ≥65 years) + 1.5 × (involvement of non-lower extremities) + 2 × (liver cirrhosis) + 2.5 × (SIRS). The overall prevalence of true bacteremia (9.4 %) in this study could be lowered to 1.0 % (low risk group, score ≤1.5) or raised to 14.7 % (medium risk group, score 2–3.5) and 41.2 % (high risk group, score ≥4.0), depending on different clinical scores.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Determining the risk of bacteremia in patients with cellulitis will allow a more efficient use of blood cultures in the diagnosis and treatment of this condition. External validation of this preliminary scoring system in future trials is needed to optimize the test.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title>
<p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1907-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<kwd-group xml:lang="en"><title>Keywords</title>
<kwd>Bacteremia</kwd>
<kwd>Cellulitis</kwd>
<kwd>Prediction model</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>issue-copyright-statement</meta-name>
<meta-value>© The Author(s) 2016</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
</custom-meta-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
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