LYMFASIM, a simulation model for predicting the impact of lymphatic filariasis control: quantification for African villages.
Identifieur interne : 003065 ( Ncbi/Checkpoint ); précédent : 003064; suivant : 003066LYMFASIM, a simulation model for predicting the impact of lymphatic filariasis control: quantification for African villages.
Auteurs : Wilma A. Stolk [Pays-Bas] ; Sake J. De Vlas ; Gerard J J M. Borsboom ; J Dik F. HabbemaSource :
- Parasitology [ 1469-8161 ] ; 2008.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Afrique (épidémiologie), Animaux, Anopheles (parasitologie), Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Filaricides (administration et posologie), Filaricides (pharmacologie), Filariose lymphatique (), Filariose lymphatique (épidémiologie), Humains, Logiciel, Modèles biologiques, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Répartition par âge, Simulation numérique, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus, Vecteurs insectes (parasitologie).
- MESH :
- administration et posologie : Filaricides.
- parasitologie : Anopheles, Vecteurs insectes.
- pharmacologie : Filaricides.
- épidémiologie : Afrique, Filariose lymphatique.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Animaux, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Filariose lymphatique, Humains, Logiciel, Modèles biologiques, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Répartition par âge, Simulation numérique, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, Africa (epidemiology), Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Animals, Anopheles (parasitology), Child, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Elephantiasis, Filarial (epidemiology), Elephantiasis, Filarial (prevention & control), Filaricides (administration & dosage), Filaricides (pharmacology), Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Insect Vectors (parasitology), Middle Aged, Models, Biological, Software.
- MESH :
- chemical , administration & dosage : Filaricides.
- geographic , epidemiology : Africa.
- epidemiology : Elephantiasis, Filarial.
- parasitology : Anopheles, Insect Vectors.
- chemical , pharmacology : Filaricides.
- prevention & control : Elephantiasis, Filarial.
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Animals, Child, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Middle Aged, Models, Biological, Software.
Abstract
LYMFASIM is a simulation model for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control. We quantified its parameters to simulate Wuchereria bancrofti transmission by Anopheles mosquitoes in African villages, using a wide variety of reported data. The developed model captures the general epidemiological patterns, but also the differences between communities. It was calibrated to represent the relationship between mosquito biting rate and the prevalence of microfilariae (mf) in the human population, the age-pattern in mf prevalence, and the relation between mf prevalence and geometric mean mf intensity. Explorative simulations suggest that the impact of mass treatment depends strongly on the mosquito biting rate and on the assumed coverage, compliance and efficacy. Our sensitivity analysis showed that some biological parameters strongly influence the predicted equilibrium pre-treatment mf prevalence (e.g. the lifespan of adult worms and mf). Other parameters primarily affect the post-treatment trends (e.g. severity of density dependence in the mosquito uptake of infection from the human blood, between-person variability in exposure to mosquito bites). The longitudinal data, which are being collected for evaluation of ongoing elimination programmes, can help to further validate the model. The model can help to assess when ongoing elimination activities in African populations can be stopped and to design surveillance schemes. It can be a valuable tool for decision making in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis.
DOI: 10.1017/S0031182008000437
PubMed: 19006602
Affiliations:
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pubmed:19006602Le document en format XML
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Stolk</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, P.O.Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands. w.stolk@erasmusmc.nl</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, P.O.Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>3000 CA Rotterdam</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="De Vlas, Sake J" sort="De Vlas, Sake J" uniqKey="De Vlas S" first="Sake J" last="De Vlas">Sake J. De Vlas</name></author><author><name sortKey="Borsboom, Gerard J J M" sort="Borsboom, Gerard J J M" uniqKey="Borsboom G" first="Gerard J J M" last="Borsboom">Gerard J J M. Borsboom</name></author><author><name sortKey="Habbema, J Dik F" sort="Habbema, J Dik F" uniqKey="Habbema J" first="J Dik F" last="Habbema">J Dik F. Habbema</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Parasitology</title><idno type="eISSN">1469-8161</idno><imprint><date when="2008" type="published">2008</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Africa (epidemiology)</term><term>Age Distribution</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Animals</term><term>Anopheles (parasitology)</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Elephantiasis, Filarial (epidemiology)</term><term>Elephantiasis, Filarial (prevention & control)</term><term>Filaricides (administration & dosage)</term><term>Filaricides (pharmacology)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infant</term><term>Infant, Newborn</term><term>Insect Vectors (parasitology)</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Software</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Afrique (épidémiologie)</term><term>Animaux</term><term>Anopheles (parasitologie)</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Filaricides (administration et posologie)</term><term>Filaricides (pharmacologie)</term><term>Filariose lymphatique ()</term><term>Filariose lymphatique (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains</term><term>Logiciel</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Nourrisson</term><term>Nouveau-né</term><term>Répartition par âge</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term><term>Vecteurs insectes (parasitologie)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="administration & dosage" xml:lang="en"><term>Filaricides</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Africa</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="administration et posologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Filaricides</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Elephantiasis, Filarial</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="parasitologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Anopheles</term><term>Vecteurs insectes</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="parasitology" xml:lang="en"><term>Anopheles</term><term>Insect Vectors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pharmacologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Filaricides</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="chemical" qualifier="pharmacology" xml:lang="en"><term>Filaricides</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Elephantiasis, Filarial</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Afrique</term><term>Filariose lymphatique</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Age Distribution</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Animals</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infant</term><term>Infant, Newborn</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Software</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Animaux</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Filariose lymphatique</term><term>Humains</term><term>Logiciel</term><term>Modèles biologiques</term><term>Nourrisson</term><term>Nouveau-né</term><term>Répartition par âge</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">LYMFASIM is a simulation model for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control. We quantified its parameters to simulate Wuchereria bancrofti transmission by Anopheles mosquitoes in African villages, using a wide variety of reported data. The developed model captures the general epidemiological patterns, but also the differences between communities. It was calibrated to represent the relationship between mosquito biting rate and the prevalence of microfilariae (mf) in the human population, the age-pattern in mf prevalence, and the relation between mf prevalence and geometric mean mf intensity. Explorative simulations suggest that the impact of mass treatment depends strongly on the mosquito biting rate and on the assumed coverage, compliance and efficacy. Our sensitivity analysis showed that some biological parameters strongly influence the predicted equilibrium pre-treatment mf prevalence (e.g. the lifespan of adult worms and mf). Other parameters primarily affect the post-treatment trends (e.g. severity of density dependence in the mosquito uptake of infection from the human blood, between-person variability in exposure to mosquito bites). The longitudinal data, which are being collected for evaluation of ongoing elimination programmes, can help to further validate the model. The model can help to assess when ongoing elimination activities in African populations can be stopped and to design surveillance schemes. It can be a valuable tool for decision making in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Pays-Bas</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Borsboom, Gerard J J M" sort="Borsboom, Gerard J J M" uniqKey="Borsboom G" first="Gerard J J M" last="Borsboom">Gerard J J M. Borsboom</name><name sortKey="De Vlas, Sake J" sort="De Vlas, Sake J" uniqKey="De Vlas S" first="Sake J" last="De Vlas">Sake J. De Vlas</name><name sortKey="Habbema, J Dik F" sort="Habbema, J Dik F" uniqKey="Habbema J" first="J Dik F" last="Habbema">J Dik F. Habbema</name></noCountry><country name="Pays-Bas"><noRegion><name sortKey="Stolk, Wilma A" sort="Stolk, Wilma A" uniqKey="Stolk W" first="Wilma A" last="Stolk">Wilma A. Stolk</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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