Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based on Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China.
Identifieur interne : 001D71 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001D70; suivant : 001D72Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based on Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China.
Auteurs : Ruoran Li [États-Unis] ; Caitlin Rivers [États-Unis] ; Qi Tan [États-Unis, République populaire de Chine] ; Megan B. Murray [États-Unis] ; Eric Toner [États-Unis] ; Marc Lipsitch [États-Unis]Source :
- JAMA network open [ 2574-3805 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adulte (MeSH), Besoins et demandes de services de santé (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Capacité hospitalière (MeSH), Chine (épidémiologie), Hospitalisation (statistiques et données numériques), Humains (MeSH), Incidence (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Maladie grave (épidémiologie), Pandémies (MeSH), Patients hospitalisés (MeSH), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Prévention des infections (MeSH), Prévision (MeSH), Unités de soins intensifs (MeSH), Villes (MeSH), Épidémies (MeSH), États-Unis (épidémiologie).
- MESH :
- statistiques et données numériques : Hospitalisation.
- épidémiologie : Chine, Infections à coronavirus, Maladie grave, Pneumopathie virale, États-Unis.
- Adulte, Besoins et demandes de services de santé, Betacoronavirus, Capacité hospitalière, Humains, Incidence, Pandémies, Patients hospitalisés, Prévention des infections, Prévision, Unités de soins intensifs, Villes, Épidémies.
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine, États-Unis.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adult (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), COVID-19 (MeSH), China (epidemiology), Cities (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Critical Illness (epidemiology), Epidemics (MeSH), Forecasting (MeSH), Health Services Needs and Demand (MeSH), Hospital Bed Capacity (MeSH), Hospitalization (statistics & numerical data), Humans (MeSH), Incidence (MeSH), Infection Control (MeSH), Inpatients (MeSH), Intensive Care Units (MeSH), Pandemics (MeSH), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), SARS-CoV-2 (MeSH), United States (epidemiology).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China, United States.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Critical Illness, Pneumonia, Viral.
- statistics & numerical data : Hospitalization.
- Adult, Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, Cities, Epidemics, Forecasting, Health Services Needs and Demand, Hospital Bed Capacity, Humans, Incidence, Infection Control, Inpatients, Intensive Care Units, Pandemics, SARS-CoV-2.
Abstract
Importance
Sustained spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has happened in major US cities. Capacity needs in cities in China could inform the planning of local health care resources.
Objectives
To describe and compare the intensive care unit (ICU) and inpatient bed needs for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2 cities in China to estimate the peak ICU bed needs in US cities if an outbreak equivalent to that in Wuhan occurs.
Design, Setting, and Participants
This comparative effectiveness study analyzed the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China, from January 10 to February 29, 2020.
Exposures
Timing of disease control measures relative to timing of SARS-CoV-2 community spread.
Main Outcomes and Measures
Number of critical and severe patient-days and peak number of patients with critical and severe illness during the study period.
Results
In Wuhan, strict disease control measures were implemented 6 weeks after sustained local transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Between January 10 and February 29, 2020, patients with COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 429 (25-1143) patients in the ICU and 1521 (111-7202) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 19 425 patients (24.5 per 10 000 adults) were hospitalized, 9689 (12.2 per 10 000 adults) were considered in serious condition, and 2087 (2.6 per 10 000 adults) needed critical care per day. In Guangzhou, strict disease control measures were implemented within 1 week of case importation. Between January 24 and February 29, COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 9 (7-12) patients in the ICU and 17 (15-26) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 15 patients were in critical condition and 38 were classified as having serious illness. The projected number of prevalent critically ill patients at the peak of a Wuhan-like outbreak in US cities was estimated to range from 2.2 to 4.4 per 10 000 adults, depending on differences in age distribution and comorbidity (ie, hypertension) prevalence.
Conclusions and Relevance
Even after the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, the number of patients with serious COVID-19 illness continued to rise, exceeding local hospitalization and ICU capacities for at least a month. Plans are urgently needed to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 outbreaks on the local health care systems in US cities.
DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.8297
PubMed: 32374400
PubMed Central: PMC7203604
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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Chan School of Public Health, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Boston, Massachusetts.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Boston</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rivers, Caitlin" sort="Rivers, Caitlin" uniqKey="Rivers C" first="Caitlin" last="Rivers">Caitlin Rivers</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Baltimore, Maryland.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Baltimore</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tan, Qi" sort="Tan, Qi" uniqKey="Tan Q" first="Qi" last="Tan">Qi Tan</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston</wicri:cityArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Nanjing</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Murray, Megan B" sort="Murray, Megan B" uniqKey="Murray M" first="Megan B" last="Murray">Megan B. 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Chan School of Public Health, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Boston, Massachusetts.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Boston</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">JAMA network open</title><idno type="eISSN">2574-3805</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult (MeSH)</term><term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term><term>COVID-19 (MeSH)</term><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Cities (MeSH)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Critical Illness (epidemiology)</term><term>Epidemics (MeSH)</term><term>Forecasting (MeSH)</term><term>Health Services Needs and Demand (MeSH)</term><term>Hospital Bed Capacity (MeSH)</term><term>Hospitalization (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Incidence (MeSH)</term><term>Infection Control (MeSH)</term><term>Inpatients (MeSH)</term><term>Intensive Care Units (MeSH)</term><term>Pandemics (MeSH)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>SARS-CoV-2 (MeSH)</term><term>United States (epidemiology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adulte (MeSH)</term><term>Besoins et demandes de services de santé (MeSH)</term><term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term><term>Capacité hospitalière (MeSH)</term><term>Chine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Hospitalisation (statistiques et données numériques)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Incidence (MeSH)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Maladie grave (épidémiologie)</term><term>Pandémies (MeSH)</term><term>Patients hospitalisés (MeSH)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term><term>Prévention des infections (MeSH)</term><term>Prévision (MeSH)</term><term>Unités de soins intensifs (MeSH)</term><term>Villes (MeSH)</term><term>Épidémies (MeSH)</term><term>États-Unis (épidémiologie)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term><term>United States</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Critical Illness</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Hospitalization</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistiques et données numériques" xml:lang="fr"><term>Hospitalisation</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chine</term><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Maladie grave</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term><term>États-Unis</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>COVID-19</term><term>Cities</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Forecasting</term><term>Health Services Needs and Demand</term><term>Hospital Bed Capacity</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Infection Control</term><term>Inpatients</term><term>Intensive Care Units</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>SARS-CoV-2</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adulte</term><term>Besoins et demandes de services de santé</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Capacité hospitalière</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Patients hospitalisés</term><term>Prévention des infections</term><term>Prévision</term><term>Unités de soins intensifs</term><term>Villes</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>République populaire de Chine</term><term>États-Unis</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Importance</b></p><p>Sustained spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has happened in major US cities. Capacity needs in cities in China could inform the planning of local health care resources.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Objectives</b></p><p>To describe and compare the intensive care unit (ICU) and inpatient bed needs for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2 cities in China to estimate the peak ICU bed needs in US cities if an outbreak equivalent to that in Wuhan occurs.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Design, Setting, and Participants</b></p><p>This comparative effectiveness study analyzed the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China, from January 10 to February 29, 2020.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Exposures</b></p><p>Timing of disease control measures relative to timing of SARS-CoV-2 community spread.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Main Outcomes and Measures</b></p><p>Number of critical and severe patient-days and peak number of patients with critical and severe illness during the study period.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Results</b></p><p>In Wuhan, strict disease control measures were implemented 6 weeks after sustained local transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Between January 10 and February 29, 2020, patients with COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 429 (25-1143) patients in the ICU and 1521 (111-7202) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 19 425 patients (24.5 per 10 000 adults) were hospitalized, 9689 (12.2 per 10 000 adults) were considered in serious condition, and 2087 (2.6 per 10 000 adults) needed critical care per day. In Guangzhou, strict disease control measures were implemented within 1 week of case importation. Between January 24 and February 29, COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 9 (7-12) patients in the ICU and 17 (15-26) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 15 patients were in critical condition and 38 were classified as having serious illness. The projected number of prevalent critically ill patients at the peak of a Wuhan-like outbreak in US cities was estimated to range from 2.2 to 4.4 per 10 000 adults, depending on differences in age distribution and comorbidity (ie, hypertension) prevalence.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Conclusions and Relevance</b></p><p>Even after the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, the number of patients with serious COVID-19 illness continued to rise, exceeding local hospitalization and ICU capacities for at least a month. Plans are urgently needed to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 outbreaks on the local health care systems in US cities.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32374400</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>12</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>18</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2574-3805</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>3</Volume><Issue>5</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>01</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>JAMA network open</Title><ISOAbbreviation>JAMA Netw Open</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based on Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e208297</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.8297</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="Importance">Sustained spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has happened in major US cities. Capacity needs in cities in China could inform the planning of local health care resources.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Objectives">To describe and compare the intensive care unit (ICU) and inpatient bed needs for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2 cities in China to estimate the peak ICU bed needs in US cities if an outbreak equivalent to that in Wuhan occurs.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Design, Setting, and Participants">This comparative effectiveness study analyzed the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China, from January 10 to February 29, 2020.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Exposures">Timing of disease control measures relative to timing of SARS-CoV-2 community spread.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Main Outcomes and Measures">Number of critical and severe patient-days and peak number of patients with critical and severe illness during the study period.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Results">In Wuhan, strict disease control measures were implemented 6 weeks after sustained local transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Between January 10 and February 29, 2020, patients with COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 429 (25-1143) patients in the ICU and 1521 (111-7202) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 19 425 patients (24.5 per 10 000 adults) were hospitalized, 9689 (12.2 per 10 000 adults) were considered in serious condition, and 2087 (2.6 per 10 000 adults) needed critical care per day. In Guangzhou, strict disease control measures were implemented within 1 week of case importation. Between January 24 and February 29, COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 9 (7-12) patients in the ICU and 17 (15-26) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 15 patients were in critical condition and 38 were classified as having serious illness. The projected number of prevalent critically ill patients at the peak of a Wuhan-like outbreak in US cities was estimated to range from 2.2 to 4.4 per 10 000 adults, depending on differences in age distribution and comorbidity (ie, hypertension) prevalence.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Conclusions and Relevance">Even after the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, the number of patients with serious COVID-19 illness continued to rise, exceeding local hospitalization and ICU capacities for at least a month. Plans are urgently needed to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 outbreaks on the local health care systems in US cities.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Ruoran</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Boston, Massachusetts.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rivers</LastName><ForeName>Caitlin</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Baltimore, Maryland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tan</LastName><ForeName>Qi</ForeName><Initials>Q</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Murray</LastName><ForeName>Megan B</ForeName><Initials>MB</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Toner</LastName><ForeName>Eric</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Baltimore, Maryland.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lipsitch</LastName><ForeName>Marc</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Boston, Massachusetts.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>U54 GM088558</GrantID><Acronym>GM</Acronym><Agency>NIGMS NIH HHS</Agency><Country>United States</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>CK000538-01</GrantID><Acronym>CC</Acronym><Agency>CDC HHS</Agency><Country>United States</Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D052061">Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013487">Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>01</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>JAMA Netw Open</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101729235</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2574-3805</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000086382" MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002681" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">China</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002947" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Cities</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="Y">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D016638" MajorTopicYN="N">Critical Illness</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058872" MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005544" MajorTopicYN="N">Forecasting</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006301" MajorTopicYN="Y">Health Services Needs and Demand</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006742" MajorTopicYN="Y">Hospital Bed Capacity</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006760" MajorTopicYN="N">Hospitalization</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="N">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName 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M" first="Megan B" last="Murray">Megan B. Murray</name><name sortKey="Rivers, Caitlin" sort="Rivers, Caitlin" uniqKey="Rivers C" first="Caitlin" last="Rivers">Caitlin Rivers</name><name sortKey="Tan, Qi" sort="Tan, Qi" uniqKey="Tan Q" first="Qi" last="Tan">Qi Tan</name><name sortKey="Toner, Eric" sort="Toner, Eric" uniqKey="Toner E" first="Eric" last="Toner">Eric Toner</name></country><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Tan, Qi" sort="Tan, Qi" uniqKey="Tan Q" first="Qi" last="Tan">Qi Tan</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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