LockdownV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 001003

Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil.

Identifieur interne : 001003 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001002; suivant : 001004

Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil.

Auteurs : Sandro Bitar [Brésil] ; Wilhelm Alexander Steinmetz [Brésil]

Source :

Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias [ 1678-2690 ] ; 2020.

RBID : pubmed:32813857

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Brésil (épidémiologie), Contrôle des maladies transmissibles (MeSH), Humains (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles théoriques (MeSH), Pandémies (MeSH), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Villes (MeSH).
MESH :
- épidémiologie : Brésil, Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- Betacoronavirus, Contrôle des maladies transmissibles, Humains, Modèles théoriques, Pandémies, Villes.
Wicri :
- geographic : Brésil.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Brazil (epidemiology), COVID-19 (MeSH), Cities (MeSH), Communicable Disease Control (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Humans (MeSH), Models, Theoretical (MeSH), Pandemics (MeSH), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), SARS-CoV-2 (MeSH).
MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Brazil.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, Cities, Communicable Disease Control, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics, SARS-CoV-2.

Abstract

We use a compartmental model to project scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 in the city of Manaus, with different degrees of social distancing and isolation of infectious individuals. In a scenario without any containment measures, our projections point to more than 50,000 (simultaneously) infectious individuals before the end of April 2020. Only in a scenario with strict and extensive social distancing (lockdown), implemented and observed as of March 23rd, 2020, would this number be less than 50,000 in the first half of June. Furthermore, an increase in the number of tests or in the collective awareness among the population regarding the importance of strict distancing measures would have only had a significant impact if implemented before the end of March.

DOI: 10.1590/0001-3765202020200615
PubMed: 32813857

Affiliations:

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

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Le document en format XML

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<term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term>
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<term>Humains (MeSH)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Modèles théoriques (MeSH)</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We use a compartmental model to project scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 in the city of Manaus, with different degrees of social distancing and isolation of infectious individuals. In a scenario without any containment measures, our projections point to more than 50,000 (simultaneously) infectious individuals before the end of April 2020. Only in a scenario with strict and extensive social distancing (lockdown), implemented and observed as of March 23rd, 2020, would this number be less than 50,000 in the first half of June. Furthermore, an increase in the number of tests or in the collective awareness among the population regarding the importance of strict distancing measures would have only had a significant impact if implemented before the end of March.</div>
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Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil.

Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil.

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

Pour générer des pages wiki