Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Dhaka and Chittagong: Two business hubs of Bangladesh.
Identifieur interne : 000016 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000015; suivant : 000017Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Dhaka and Chittagong: Two business hubs of Bangladesh.
Auteurs : Zakaria Shams Siam [Bangladesh] ; Md Arifuzzaman [Bangladesh] ; Md Salik Ahmed [Bangladesh] ; Faisal Ahamed Khan [Bangladesh] ; Md Harunur Rashid [Bangladesh] ; Md Shariful Islam [Bangladesh]Source :
- Clinical epidemiology and global health [ 2452-0918 ]
Abstract
Background
Having inadequate health care systems and poor socio-economic infrastructure, Bangladesh has been braving to contain the impact of current COVID-19 pandemic since March, 2020. To curb the diffusion of COVID-19, the local government has responded to the outbreak by enforcing a set of restricted measures on economic and social activities across the country.
Objectives
Here, we aim to assess the propagation of COVID-19 by estimating the coronavirus active cases and mortality rate in two major business hubs of Bangladesh, namely Dhaka and Chittagong city under flexible lockdown conditions.
Methods
We apply a data-driven forecasting model using Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time to deal with coronavirus outbreak.
Results
The epidemiological model forecasts the dire consequences for Dhaka city with 2400 death cases at the end of December, 2020, whereas Chittagong city might experience 14% more deaths than Dhaka if the severe restrictions are not implemented to control the pandemic.
Conclusion
Although lockdown has a positive impact in reducing the diffusion of COVID-19, it is disastrous for human welfare and national economies. Therefore, a unidirectional decision by the policymakers might cost a very high price on either way for a lower-middle-income country, Bangladesh. In this study, we suggest a fair trade-off between public health and the economy to avoid enormous death tolls and economic havoc in Bangladesh.
DOI: 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.100684
PubMed: 33392419
PubMed Central: PMC7759449
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Dhaka and Chittagong: Two business hubs of Bangladesh.</title><author><name sortKey="Siam, Zakaria Shams" sort="Siam, Zakaria Shams" uniqKey="Siam Z" first="Zakaria Shams" last="Siam">Zakaria Shams Siam</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Bangladesh</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, North South University, Dhaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dhaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Arifuzzaman, Md" sort="Arifuzzaman, Md" uniqKey="Arifuzzaman M" first="Md" last="Arifuzzaman">Md Arifuzzaman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Bangladesh</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dhaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ahmed, Md Salik" sort="Ahmed, Md Salik" uniqKey="Ahmed M" first="Md Salik" last="Ahmed">Md Salik Ahmed</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Bangladesh</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dhaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Khan, Faisal Ahamed" sort="Khan, Faisal Ahamed" uniqKey="Khan F" first="Faisal Ahamed" last="Khan">Faisal Ahamed Khan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Giga Tech Ltd, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Bangladesh</country><wicri:regionArea>Giga Tech Ltd, Dhaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dhaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rashid, Md Harunur" sort="Rashid, Md Harunur" uniqKey="Rashid M" first="Md Harunur" last="Rashid">Md Harunur Rashid</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Bangladesh</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dhaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Islam, Md Shariful" sort="Islam, Md Shariful" uniqKey="Islam M" first="Md Shariful" last="Islam">Md Shariful Islam</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Bangladesh</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dhaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2021">2021 Apr-Jun</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:33392419</idno><idno type="pmid">33392419</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.cegh.2020.100684</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC7759449</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000450</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000450</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000450</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000450</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000450</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Dhaka and Chittagong: Two business hubs of Bangladesh.</title><author><name sortKey="Siam, Zakaria Shams" sort="Siam, Zakaria Shams" uniqKey="Siam Z" first="Zakaria Shams" last="Siam">Zakaria Shams Siam</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Bangladesh</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, North South University, Dhaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dhaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Arifuzzaman, Md" sort="Arifuzzaman, Md" uniqKey="Arifuzzaman M" first="Md" last="Arifuzzaman">Md Arifuzzaman</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Bangladesh</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dhaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ahmed, Md Salik" sort="Ahmed, Md Salik" uniqKey="Ahmed M" first="Md Salik" last="Ahmed">Md Salik Ahmed</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Bangladesh</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dhaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Khan, Faisal Ahamed" sort="Khan, Faisal Ahamed" uniqKey="Khan F" first="Faisal Ahamed" last="Khan">Faisal Ahamed Khan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Giga Tech Ltd, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Bangladesh</country><wicri:regionArea>Giga Tech Ltd, Dhaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dhaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rashid, Md Harunur" sort="Rashid, Md Harunur" uniqKey="Rashid M" first="Md Harunur" last="Rashid">Md Harunur Rashid</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Bangladesh</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dhaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Islam, Md Shariful" sort="Islam, Md Shariful" uniqKey="Islam M" first="Md Shariful" last="Islam">Md Shariful Islam</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Bangladesh</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Dhaka</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Clinical epidemiology and global health</title><idno type="ISSN">2452-0918</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Background</b></p><p>Having inadequate health care systems and poor socio-economic infrastructure, Bangladesh has been braving to contain the impact of current COVID-19 pandemic since March, 2020. To curb the diffusion of COVID-19, the local government has responded to the outbreak by enforcing a set of restricted measures on economic and social activities across the country.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Objectives</b></p><p>Here, we aim to assess the propagation of COVID-19 by estimating the coronavirus active cases and mortality rate in two major business hubs of Bangladesh, namely Dhaka and Chittagong city under flexible lockdown conditions.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Methods</b></p><p>We apply a data-driven forecasting model using Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time to deal with coronavirus outbreak.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Results</b></p><p>The epidemiological model forecasts the dire consequences for Dhaka city with 2400 death cases at the end of December, 2020, whereas Chittagong city might experience 14% more deaths than Dhaka if the severe restrictions are not implemented to control the pandemic.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Although lockdown has a positive impact in reducing the diffusion of COVID-19, it is disastrous for human welfare and national economies. Therefore, a unidirectional decision by the policymakers might cost a very high price on either way for a lower-middle-income country, Bangladesh. In this study, we suggest a fair trade-off between public health and the economy to avoid enormous death tolls and economic havoc in Bangladesh.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">33392419</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2021</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>05</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2452-0918</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>10</Volume><PubDate><MedlineDate>2021 Apr-Jun</MedlineDate></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Clinical epidemiology and global health</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Clin Epidemiol Glob Health</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Dhaka and Chittagong: Two business hubs of Bangladesh.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>100684</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.cegh.2020.100684</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="Background" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Having inadequate health care systems and poor socio-economic infrastructure, Bangladesh has been braving to contain the impact of current COVID-19 pandemic since March, 2020. To curb the diffusion of COVID-19, the local government has responded to the outbreak by enforcing a set of restricted measures on economic and social activities across the country.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Objectives" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Here, we aim to assess the propagation of COVID-19 by estimating the coronavirus active cases and mortality rate in two major business hubs of Bangladesh, namely Dhaka and Chittagong city under flexible lockdown conditions.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Methods" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">We apply a data-driven forecasting model using Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time to deal with coronavirus outbreak.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Results" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">The epidemiological model forecasts the dire consequences for Dhaka city with 2400 death cases at the end of December, 2020, whereas Chittagong city might experience 14% more deaths than Dhaka if the severe restrictions are not implemented to control the pandemic.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Conclusion" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Although lockdown has a positive impact in reducing the diffusion of COVID-19, it is disastrous for human welfare and national economies. Therefore, a unidirectional decision by the policymakers might cost a very high price on either way for a lower-middle-income country, Bangladesh. In this study, we suggest a fair trade-off between public health and the economy to avoid enormous death tolls and economic havoc in Bangladesh.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 The Author(s).</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Siam</LastName><ForeName>Zakaria Shams</ForeName><Initials>ZS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Arifuzzaman</LastName><ForeName>Md</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ahmed</LastName><ForeName>Md Salik</ForeName><Initials>MS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Khan</LastName><ForeName>Faisal Ahamed</ForeName><Initials>FA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Giga Tech Ltd, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rashid</LastName><ForeName>Md Harunur</ForeName><Initials>MH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Islam</LastName><ForeName>Md Shariful</ForeName><Initials>MS</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Physics, North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>25</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>India</Country><MedlineTA>Clin Epidemiol Glob Health</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101608821</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2213-3984</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Bangladesh</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemic model</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Lockdown</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">SARS-CoV-2</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>31</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>29</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>13</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2021</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>4</Day><Hour>5</Hour><Minute>31</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2021</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>5</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2021</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>5</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">33392419</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.cegh.2020.100684</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S2213-3984(20)30254-2</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7759449</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><pmc-dir>pmcsd</pmc-dir>
<ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Infect Dis Model. 2020 Feb 14;5:256-263</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32110742</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Clin Otolaryngol. 2020 Aug 1;:</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32741085</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Med Virol. 2020 Apr;92(4):401-402</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31950516</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Diabetes Metab Syndr. 2020 Sep - Oct;14(5):953-961</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32604014</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet Respir Med. 2020 May;8(5):506-517</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32272080</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Sci Rep. 2015 Mar 04;5:8751</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">25736239</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Travel Med. 2020 May 18;27(3):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32181488</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Intensive Care Med. 2020 May;46(5):837-840</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32123994</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Hum Resour Health. 2011 Jan 22;9:3</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">21255446</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Urban Econ. 2020 Oct 21;:103292</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">33106711</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Indian J Phys Proc Indian Assoc Cultiv Sci (2004). 2020 Jun 23;:1-17</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32837088</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Bangladesh</li></country></list><tree><country name="Bangladesh"><noRegion><name sortKey="Siam, Zakaria Shams" sort="Siam, Zakaria Shams" uniqKey="Siam Z" first="Zakaria Shams" last="Siam">Zakaria Shams Siam</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Ahmed, Md Salik" sort="Ahmed, Md Salik" uniqKey="Ahmed M" first="Md Salik" last="Ahmed">Md Salik Ahmed</name><name sortKey="Arifuzzaman, Md" sort="Arifuzzaman, Md" uniqKey="Arifuzzaman M" first="Md" last="Arifuzzaman">Md Arifuzzaman</name><name sortKey="Islam, Md Shariful" sort="Islam, Md Shariful" uniqKey="Islam M" first="Md Shariful" last="Islam">Md Shariful Islam</name><name sortKey="Khan, Faisal Ahamed" sort="Khan, Faisal Ahamed" uniqKey="Khan F" first="Faisal Ahamed" last="Khan">Faisal Ahamed Khan</name><name sortKey="Rashid, Md Harunur" sort="Rashid, Md Harunur" uniqKey="Rashid M" first="Md Harunur" last="Rashid">Md Harunur Rashid</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/LockdownV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000016 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000016 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= LockdownV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:33392419
|texte= Dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Dhaka and Chittagong: Two business hubs of Bangladesh.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:33392419" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a LockdownV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.38. |  |