Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment.
Identifieur interne : 001364 ( Main/Curation ); précédent : 001363; suivant : 001365Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment.
Auteurs : Kylie E C. Ainslie [Royaume-Uni] ; Caroline E. Walters [Royaume-Uni] ; Han Fu [Royaume-Uni] ; Sangeeta Bhatia [Royaume-Uni] ; Haowei Wang [Royaume-Uni] ; Xiaoyue Xi [Royaume-Uni] ; Marc Baguelin [Royaume-Uni] ; Samir Bhatt [Royaume-Uni] ; Adhiratha Boonyasiri [Royaume-Uni] ; Olivia Boyd [Royaume-Uni] ; Lorenzo Cattarino [Royaume-Uni] ; Constanze Ciavarella [Royaume-Uni] ; Zulma Cucunuba [Royaume-Uni] ; Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg [Royaume-Uni] ; Amy Dighe [Royaume-Uni] ; Ilaria Dorigatti [Royaume-Uni] ; Sabine L. Van Elsland [Royaume-Uni] ; Rich Fitzjohn [Royaume-Uni] ; Katy Gaythorpe [Royaume-Uni] ; Azra C. Ghani [Royaume-Uni] ; Will Green [Royaume-Uni] ; Arran Hamlet [Royaume-Uni] ; Wes Hinsley [Royaume-Uni] ; Natsuko Imai [Royaume-Uni] ; David Jorgensen [Royaume-Uni] ; Edward Knock [Royaume-Uni] ; Daniel Laydon [Royaume-Uni] ; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani [Royaume-Uni] ; Lucy C. Okell [Royaume-Uni] ; Igor Siveroni [Royaume-Uni] ; Hayley A. Thompson [Royaume-Uni] ; H Juliette T. Unwin [Royaume-Uni] ; Robert Verity [Royaume-Uni] ; Michaela Vollmer [Royaume-Uni] ; Patrick G T. Walker [Royaume-Uni] ; Yuanrong Wang [Royaume-Uni] ; Oliver J. Watson [Royaume-Uni, États-Unis] ; Charles Whittaker [Royaume-Uni] ; Peter Winskill [Royaume-Uni] ; Christl A. Donnelly [Royaume-Uni] ; Neil M. Ferguson [Royaume-Uni] ; Steven Riley [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- Wellcome open research [ 2398-502X ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. These interventions have impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic was not clear. Methods: Using daily reported cases from mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, we estimated transmissibility over time and compared it to daily within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Results: Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the five mainland provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation decreased rapidly after the initial sharp fall in transmissibility. In general, towards the end of the study period, the correlation was no longer apparent, despite substantial increases in within-city movement. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity were maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. At the very end of the study period, when China began to experience the re-introduction of a small number of cases from Europe and the United States, there is an apparent up-tick in transmission. Conclusions: Although these results do not preclude future substantial increases in incidence, they suggest that after very intense social distancing (which resulted in containment), China successfully exited its lockdown to some degree. Elsewhere, movement data are being used as proxies for economic activity to assess the impact of interventions. The results presented here illustrate how the eventual decorrelation between transmission and movement is likely a key feature of successful COVID-19 exit strategies.
DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15843.2
PubMed: 32500100
PubMed Central: PMC7236587
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<author><name sortKey="Gaythorpe, Katy" sort="Gaythorpe, Katy" uniqKey="Gaythorpe K" first="Katy" last="Gaythorpe">Katy Gaythorpe</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Imai, Natsuko" sort="Imai, Natsuko" uniqKey="Imai N" first="Natsuko" last="Imai">Natsuko Imai</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Knock, Edward" sort="Knock, Edward" uniqKey="Knock E" first="Edward" last="Knock">Edward Knock</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Laydon, Daniel" sort="Laydon, Daniel" uniqKey="Laydon D" first="Daniel" last="Laydon">Daniel Laydon</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Nedjati Gilani, Gemma" sort="Nedjati Gilani, Gemma" uniqKey="Nedjati Gilani G" first="Gemma" last="Nedjati-Gilani">Gemma Nedjati-Gilani</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Okell, Lucy C" sort="Okell, Lucy C" uniqKey="Okell L" first="Lucy C" last="Okell">Lucy C. Okell</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Siveroni, Igor" sort="Siveroni, Igor" uniqKey="Siveroni I" first="Igor" last="Siveroni">Igor Siveroni</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Thompson, Hayley A" sort="Thompson, Hayley A" uniqKey="Thompson H" first="Hayley A" last="Thompson">Hayley A. Thompson</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Unwin, H Juliette T" sort="Unwin, H Juliette T" uniqKey="Unwin H" first="H Juliette T" last="Unwin">H Juliette T. Unwin</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Verity, Robert" sort="Verity, Robert" uniqKey="Verity R" first="Robert" last="Verity">Robert Verity</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Vollmer, Michaela" sort="Vollmer, Michaela" uniqKey="Vollmer M" first="Michaela" last="Vollmer">Michaela Vollmer</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Walker, Patrick G T" sort="Walker, Patrick G T" uniqKey="Walker P" first="Patrick G T" last="Walker">Patrick G T. Walker</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Wang, Yuanrong" sort="Wang, Yuanrong" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yuanrong" last="Wang">Yuanrong Wang</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Watson, Oliver J" sort="Watson, Oliver J" uniqKey="Watson O" first="Oliver J" last="Watson">Oliver J. Watson</name>
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<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Brown University, Providence, RI, 02912, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Whittaker, Charles" sort="Whittaker, Charles" uniqKey="Whittaker C" first="Charles" last="Whittaker">Charles Whittaker</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
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<author><name sortKey="Winskill, Peter" sort="Winskill, Peter" uniqKey="Winskill P" first="Peter" last="Winskill">Peter Winskill</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Christl A" sort="Donnelly, Christl A" uniqKey="Donnelly C" first="Christl A" last="Donnelly">Christl A. Donnelly</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
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<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3LB, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3LB</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M" last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
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<author><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment.</title>
<author><name sortKey="Ainslie, Kylie E C" sort="Ainslie, Kylie E C" uniqKey="Ainslie K" first="Kylie E C" last="Ainslie">Kylie E C. Ainslie</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Walters, Caroline E" sort="Walters, Caroline E" uniqKey="Walters C" first="Caroline E" last="Walters">Caroline E. Walters</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fu, Han" sort="Fu, Han" uniqKey="Fu H" first="Han" last="Fu">Han Fu</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bhatia, Sangeeta" sort="Bhatia, Sangeeta" uniqKey="Bhatia S" first="Sangeeta" last="Bhatia">Sangeeta Bhatia</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, Haowei" sort="Wang, Haowei" uniqKey="Wang H" first="Haowei" last="Wang">Haowei Wang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Xi, Xiaoyue" sort="Xi, Xiaoyue" uniqKey="Xi X" first="Xiaoyue" last="Xi">Xiaoyue Xi</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Baguelin, Marc" sort="Baguelin, Marc" uniqKey="Baguelin M" first="Marc" last="Baguelin">Marc Baguelin</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
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</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bhatt, Samir" sort="Bhatt, Samir" uniqKey="Bhatt S" first="Samir" last="Bhatt">Samir Bhatt</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Boonyasiri, Adhiratha" sort="Boonyasiri, Adhiratha" uniqKey="Boonyasiri A" first="Adhiratha" last="Boonyasiri">Adhiratha Boonyasiri</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Boyd, Olivia" sort="Boyd, Olivia" uniqKey="Boyd O" first="Olivia" last="Boyd">Olivia Boyd</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cattarino, Lorenzo" sort="Cattarino, Lorenzo" uniqKey="Cattarino L" first="Lorenzo" last="Cattarino">Lorenzo Cattarino</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ciavarella, Constanze" sort="Ciavarella, Constanze" uniqKey="Ciavarella C" first="Constanze" last="Ciavarella">Constanze Ciavarella</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cucunuba, Zulma" sort="Cucunuba, Zulma" uniqKey="Cucunuba Z" first="Zulma" last="Cucunuba">Zulma Cucunuba</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cuomo Dannenburg, Gina" sort="Cuomo Dannenburg, Gina" uniqKey="Cuomo Dannenburg G" first="Gina" last="Cuomo-Dannenburg">Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dighe, Amy" sort="Dighe, Amy" uniqKey="Dighe A" first="Amy" last="Dighe">Amy Dighe</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dorigatti, Ilaria" sort="Dorigatti, Ilaria" uniqKey="Dorigatti I" first="Ilaria" last="Dorigatti">Ilaria Dorigatti</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Van Elsland, Sabine L" sort="Van Elsland, Sabine L" uniqKey="Van Elsland S" first="Sabine L" last="Van Elsland">Sabine L. Van Elsland</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fitzjohn, Rich" sort="Fitzjohn, Rich" uniqKey="Fitzjohn R" first="Rich" last="Fitzjohn">Rich Fitzjohn</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gaythorpe, Katy" sort="Gaythorpe, Katy" uniqKey="Gaythorpe K" first="Katy" last="Gaythorpe">Katy Gaythorpe</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ghani, Azra C" sort="Ghani, Azra C" uniqKey="Ghani A" first="Azra C" last="Ghani">Azra C. Ghani</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Green, Will" sort="Green, Will" uniqKey="Green W" first="Will" last="Green">Will Green</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hamlet, Arran" sort="Hamlet, Arran" uniqKey="Hamlet A" first="Arran" last="Hamlet">Arran Hamlet</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hinsley, Wes" sort="Hinsley, Wes" uniqKey="Hinsley W" first="Wes" last="Hinsley">Wes Hinsley</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Imai, Natsuko" sort="Imai, Natsuko" uniqKey="Imai N" first="Natsuko" last="Imai">Natsuko Imai</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jorgensen, David" sort="Jorgensen, David" uniqKey="Jorgensen D" first="David" last="Jorgensen">David Jorgensen</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Knock, Edward" sort="Knock, Edward" uniqKey="Knock E" first="Edward" last="Knock">Edward Knock</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Laydon, Daniel" sort="Laydon, Daniel" uniqKey="Laydon D" first="Daniel" last="Laydon">Daniel Laydon</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nedjati Gilani, Gemma" sort="Nedjati Gilani, Gemma" uniqKey="Nedjati Gilani G" first="Gemma" last="Nedjati-Gilani">Gemma Nedjati-Gilani</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Okell, Lucy C" sort="Okell, Lucy C" uniqKey="Okell L" first="Lucy C" last="Okell">Lucy C. Okell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Siveroni, Igor" sort="Siveroni, Igor" uniqKey="Siveroni I" first="Igor" last="Siveroni">Igor Siveroni</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Thompson, Hayley A" sort="Thompson, Hayley A" uniqKey="Thompson H" first="Hayley A" last="Thompson">Hayley A. Thompson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Unwin, H Juliette T" sort="Unwin, H Juliette T" uniqKey="Unwin H" first="H Juliette T" last="Unwin">H Juliette T. Unwin</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Verity, Robert" sort="Verity, Robert" uniqKey="Verity R" first="Robert" last="Verity">Robert Verity</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Vollmer, Michaela" sort="Vollmer, Michaela" uniqKey="Vollmer M" first="Michaela" last="Vollmer">Michaela Vollmer</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Walker, Patrick G T" sort="Walker, Patrick G T" uniqKey="Walker P" first="Patrick G T" last="Walker">Patrick G T. Walker</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, Yuanrong" sort="Wang, Yuanrong" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Yuanrong" last="Wang">Yuanrong Wang</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Watson, Oliver J" sort="Watson, Oliver J" uniqKey="Watson O" first="Oliver J" last="Watson">Oliver J. Watson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Brown University, Providence, RI, 02912, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Brown University, Providence, RI, 02912</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Whittaker, Charles" sort="Whittaker, Charles" uniqKey="Whittaker C" first="Charles" last="Whittaker">Charles Whittaker</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Winskill, Peter" sort="Winskill, Peter" uniqKey="Winskill P" first="Peter" last="Winskill">Peter Winskill</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Christl A" sort="Donnelly, Christl A" uniqKey="Donnelly C" first="Christl A" last="Donnelly">Christl A. Donnelly</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3LB, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3LB</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Neil M" sort="Ferguson, Neil M" uniqKey="Ferguson N" first="Neil M" last="Ferguson">Neil M. Ferguson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
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<series><title level="j">Wellcome open research</title>
<idno type="ISSN">2398-502X</idno>
<imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date>
</imprint>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><b>Background</b>
: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. These interventions have impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic was not clear. <b>Methods</b>
: Using daily reported cases from mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, we estimated transmissibility over time and compared it to daily within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. <b>Results</b>
: Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the five mainland provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation decreased rapidly after the initial sharp fall in transmissibility. In general, towards the end of the study period, the correlation was no longer apparent, despite substantial increases in within-city movement. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity were maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. At the very end of the study period, when China began to experience the re-introduction of a small number of cases from Europe and the United States, there is an apparent up-tick in transmission. <b>Conclusions:</b>
Although these results do not preclude future substantial increases in incidence, they suggest that after very intense social distancing (which resulted in containment), China successfully exited its lockdown to some degree. Elsewhere, movement data are being used as proxies for economic activity to assess the impact of interventions. The results presented here illustrate how the eventual decorrelation between transmission and movement is likely a key feature of successful COVID-19 exit strategies.</div>
</front>
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<DateRevised><Year>2021</Year>
<Month>01</Month>
<Day>10</Day>
</DateRevised>
<Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2398-502X</ISSN>
<JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>5</Volume>
<PubDate><Year>2020</Year>
</PubDate>
</JournalIssue>
<Title>Wellcome open research</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>Wellcome Open Res</ISOAbbreviation>
</Journal>
<ArticleTitle>Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment.</ArticleTitle>
<Pagination><MedlinePgn>81</MedlinePgn>
</Pagination>
<ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15843.2</ELocationID>
<Abstract><AbstractText><b>Background</b>
: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. These interventions have impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic was not clear. <b>Methods</b>
: Using daily reported cases from mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, we estimated transmissibility over time and compared it to daily within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. <b>Results</b>
: Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the five mainland provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation decreased rapidly after the initial sharp fall in transmissibility. In general, towards the end of the study period, the correlation was no longer apparent, despite substantial increases in within-city movement. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity were maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. At the very end of the study period, when China began to experience the re-introduction of a small number of cases from Europe and the United States, there is an apparent up-tick in transmission. <b>Conclusions:</b>
Although these results do not preclude future substantial increases in incidence, they suggest that after very intense social distancing (which resulted in containment), China successfully exited its lockdown to some degree. Elsewhere, movement data are being used as proxies for economic activity to assess the impact of interventions. The results presented here illustrate how the eventual decorrelation between transmission and movement is likely a key feature of successful COVID-19 exit strategies.</AbstractText>
<CopyrightInformation>Copyright: © 2020 Ainslie KEC et al.</CopyrightInformation>
</Abstract>
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<ForeName>Kylie E C</ForeName>
<Initials>KEC</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5419-7206</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Walters</LastName>
<ForeName>Caroline E</ForeName>
<Initials>CE</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1882-0886</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Fu</LastName>
<ForeName>Han</ForeName>
<Initials>H</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8934-7347</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
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<ForeName>Sangeeta</ForeName>
<Initials>S</Initials>
<Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6525-101X</Identifier>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</Affiliation>
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<ForeName>Haowei</ForeName>
<Initials>H</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</Affiliation>
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<ForeName>Xiaoyue</ForeName>
<Initials>X</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.</Affiliation>
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<ForeName>Marc</ForeName>
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<ForeName>Olivia</ForeName>
<Initials>O</Initials>
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<ForeName>Charles</ForeName>
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<ForeName>Christl A</ForeName>
<Initials>CA</Initials>
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<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</Affiliation>
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<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3LB, UK.</Affiliation>
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<Initials>NM</Initials>
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<ForeName>Steven</ForeName>
<Initials>S</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.</Affiliation>
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<Language>eng</Language>
<GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>MR/R015600/1</GrantID>
<Acronym>MRC_</Acronym>
<Agency>Medical Research Council</Agency>
<Country>United Kingdom</Country>
</Grant>
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<PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType>
</PublicationTypeList>
<ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>10</Month>
<Day>01</Day>
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<MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country>
<MedlineTA>Wellcome Open Res</MedlineTA>
<NlmUniqueID>101696457</NlmUniqueID>
<ISSNLinking>2398-502X</ISSNLinking>
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<KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">exit strategy</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">social distancing</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</Keyword>
</KeywordList>
<CoiStatement>No competing interests were disclosed.</CoiStatement>
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<Month>09</Month>
<Day>17</Day>
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<Month>10</Month>
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<ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32500100</ArticleId>
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<ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 Aug;20(8):911-919</Citation>
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