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[Estimated Effect of COVID-19 Lockdown on Skin Tumor Size and Survival: An Exponential Growth Model].

Identifieur interne : 002455 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 002454; suivant : 002456

[Estimated Effect of COVID-19 Lockdown on Skin Tumor Size and Survival: An Exponential Growth Model].

Auteurs : A. Tejera-Vaquerizo ; J. Ca Ueto ; A. Toll ; J. Santos-Juanes ; A. Jaka ; C. Ferrandiz-Pulido ; O. Sanmartín ; S. Ribero ; D. Moreno-Ramírez ; F. Almazán ; M J Fuente ; S. Podlipnik ; E. Nagore

Source :

RBID : pubmed:32513393

English descriptors

Abstract

Background and objectives

Spain is in a situation of indefinite lockdown due to the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. One of the consequences of this lockdown is delays in medical and surgical procedures for common diseases. The aim of this study was to model the impact on survival of tumor growth caused by such delays in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and melanoma.

Material and methods

Multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study. We constructed an exponential growth model for both SCC and melanoma to estimate tumor growth between patient-reported onset and surgical excision at different time points.

Results

Data from 200 patients with SCC of the head and neck and 1000 patients with cutaneous melanoma were included. An exponential growth curve was calculated for each tumor type and we estimated tumor size after 1, 2, and 3 months of potential surgical delay. The proportion of patients with T3 SCC (diameter >4cm or thickness >6 mm) increased from 41.5% (83 patients) in the initial study group to an estimated 58.5%, 70.5%, and 72% after 1, 2, and 3 months of delay. Disease-specific survival at 2, 5, and 10 years in patients whose surgery was delayed by 3 months decreased by 6.2%, 8.2%, and 5.2%, respectively. The proportion of patients with ultrathick melanoma (>6 mm) increased from 6.9% in the initial study group to 21.9%, 30.2%, and 30.2% at 1, 2, and 3 months. Five- and 10-year disease-specific survival both decreased by 14.4% in patients treated after a potential delay of 3 months.

Conclusions

In the absence of adequate diagnosis and treatment of SCC and melanoma in the current lockdown situation in Spain, we can expect to see to a considerable increase in large and thick SCCs and melanomas. Efforts must be taken to encourage self-examination and facilitate access to dermatologists in order to prevent further delays.


DOI: 10.1016/j.ad.2020.05.001
PubMed: 32513393
PubMed Central: PMC7502279

Links to Exploration step

pubmed:32513393

Le document en format XML

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<term>Age Factors (MeSH)</term>
<term>Algorithms (MeSH)</term>
<term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term>
<term>COVID-19 (MeSH)</term>
<term>Carcinoma, Squamous Cell (mortality)</term>
<term>Carcinoma, Squamous Cell (pathology)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Delayed Diagnosis (adverse effects)</term>
<term>Delayed Diagnosis (statistics & numerical data)</term>
<term>Female (MeSH)</term>
<term>Head and Neck Neoplasms (mortality)</term>
<term>Head and Neck Neoplasms (pathology)</term>
<term>Health Services Accessibility (MeSH)</term>
<term>Humans (MeSH)</term>
<term>Male (MeSH)</term>
<term>Melanoma (mortality)</term>
<term>Melanoma (pathology)</term>
<term>Pandemics (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Public Health Surveillance (methods)</term>
<term>Quarantine (MeSH)</term>
<term>Retrospective Studies (MeSH)</term>
<term>SARS-CoV-2 (MeSH)</term>
<term>Sex Factors (MeSH)</term>
<term>Skin Neoplasms (mortality)</term>
<term>Skin Neoplasms (pathology)</term>
<term>Spain (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Time Factors (MeSH)</term>
<term>Time-to-Treatment (MeSH)</term>
<term>Tumor Burden (MeSH)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en">
<term>Spain</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="adverse effects" xml:lang="en">
<term>Delayed Diagnosis</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en">
<term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en">
<term>Public Health Surveillance</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en">
<term>Carcinoma, Squamous Cell</term>
<term>Head and Neck Neoplasms</term>
<term>Melanoma</term>
<term>Skin Neoplasms</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathology" xml:lang="en">
<term>Carcinoma, Squamous Cell</term>
<term>Head and Neck Neoplasms</term>
<term>Melanoma</term>
<term>Skin Neoplasms</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en">
<term>Delayed Diagnosis</term>
</keywords>
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<term>Age Factors</term>
<term>Algorithms</term>
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<term>Retrospective Studies</term>
<term>SARS-CoV-2</term>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>Background and objectives</b>
</p>
<p>Spain is in a situation of indefinite lockdown due to the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. One of the consequences of this lockdown is delays in medical and surgical procedures for common diseases. The aim of this study was to model the impact on survival of tumor growth caused by such delays in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and melanoma.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>Material and methods</b>
</p>
<p>Multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study. We constructed an exponential growth model for both SCC and melanoma to estimate tumor growth between patient-reported onset and surgical excision at different time points.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>Results</b>
</p>
<p>Data from 200 patients with SCC of the head and neck and 1000 patients with cutaneous melanoma were included. An exponential growth curve was calculated for each tumor type and we estimated tumor size after 1, 2, and 3 months of potential surgical delay. The proportion of patients with T3 SCC (diameter >4cm or thickness >6 mm) increased from 41.5% (83 patients) in the initial study group to an estimated 58.5%, 70.5%, and 72% after 1, 2, and 3 months of delay. Disease-specific survival at 2, 5, and 10 years in patients whose surgery was delayed by 3 months decreased by 6.2%, 8.2%, and 5.2%, respectively. The proportion of patients with ultrathick melanoma (>6 mm) increased from 6.9% in the initial study group to 21.9%, 30.2%, and 30.2% at 1, 2, and 3 months. Five- and 10-year disease-specific survival both decreased by 14.4% in patients treated after a potential delay of 3 months.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>Conclusions</b>
</p>
<p>In the absence of adequate diagnosis and treatment of SCC and melanoma in the current lockdown situation in Spain, we can expect to see to a considerable increase in large and thick SCCs and melanomas. Efforts must be taken to encourage self-examination and facilitate access to dermatologists in order to prevent further delays.</p>
</div>
</front>
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<AbstractText Label="Background and objectives" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Spain is in a situation of indefinite lockdown due to the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. One of the consequences of this lockdown is delays in medical and surgical procedures for common diseases. The aim of this study was to model the impact on survival of tumor growth caused by such delays in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and melanoma.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="Material and methods" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study. We constructed an exponential growth model for both SCC and melanoma to estimate tumor growth between patient-reported onset and surgical excision at different time points.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="Results" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Data from 200 patients with SCC of the head and neck and 1000 patients with cutaneous melanoma were included. An exponential growth curve was calculated for each tumor type and we estimated tumor size after 1, 2, and 3 months of potential surgical delay. The proportion of patients with T3 SCC (diameter >4cm or thickness >6 mm) increased from 41.5% (83 patients) in the initial study group to an estimated 58.5%, 70.5%, and 72% after 1, 2, and 3 months of delay. Disease-specific survival at 2, 5, and 10 years in patients whose surgery was delayed by 3 months decreased by 6.2%, 8.2%, and 5.2%, respectively. The proportion of patients with ultrathick melanoma (>6 mm) increased from 6.9% in the initial study group to 21.9%, 30.2%, and 30.2% at 1, 2, and 3 months. Five- and 10-year disease-specific survival both decreased by 14.4% in patients treated after a potential delay of 3 months.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="Conclusions" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">In the absence of adequate diagnosis and treatment of SCC and melanoma in the current lockdown situation in Spain, we can expect to see to a considerable increase in large and thick SCCs and melanomas. Efforts must be taken to encourage self-examination and facilitate access to dermatologists in order to prevent further delays.</AbstractText>
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