Spread and Impact of COVID-19 in China: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Predictions From Transmission-Dynamic Models.
Identifieur interne : 002135 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 002134; suivant : 002136Spread and Impact of COVID-19 in China: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Predictions From Transmission-Dynamic Models.
Auteurs : Yi-Fan Lin ; Qibin Duan ; Yiguo Zhou ; Tanwei Yuan ; Peiyang Li ; Thomas Fitzpatrick ; Leiwen Fu ; Anping Feng ; Ganfeng Luo ; Yuewei Zhan ; Bowen Liang ; Song Fan ; Yong Lu ; Bingyi Wang ; Zhenyu Wang ; Heping Zhao ; Yanxiao Gao ; Meijuan Li ; Dahui Chen ; Xiaoting Chen ; Yunlong Ao ; Linghua Li ; Weiping Cai ; Xiangjun Du ; Yuelong Shu ; Huachun ZouSource :
- Frontiers in medicine [ 2296-858X ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and quickly spread throughout China and the rest of the world. Many mathematical models have been developed to understand and predict the infectiousness of COVID-19. We aim to summarize these models to inform efforts to manage the current outbreak. Methods: We searched PubMed, Web of science, EMBASE, bioRxiv, medRxiv, arXiv, Preprints, and National Knowledge Infrastructure (Chinese database) for relevant studies published between 1 December 2019 and 21 February 2020. References were screened for additional publications. Crucial indicators were extracted and analysed. We also built a mathematical model for the evolution of the epidemic in Wuhan that synthesised extracted indicators. Results: Fifty-two articles involving 75 mathematical or statistical models were included in our systematic review. The overall median basic reproduction number (R0) was 3.77 [interquartile range (IQR) 2.78-5.13], which dropped to a controlled reproduction number (Rc) of 1.88 (IQR 1.41-2.24) after city lockdown. The median incubation and infectious periods were 5.90 (IQR 4.78-6.25) and 9.94 (IQR 3.93-13.50) days, respectively. The median case-fatality rate (CFR) was 2.9% (IQR 2.3-5.4%). Our mathematical model showed that, in Wuhan, the peak time of infection is likely to be March 2020 with a median size of 98,333 infected cases (range 55,225-188,284). The earliest elimination of ongoing transmission is likely to be achieved around 7 May 2020. Conclusions: Our analysis found a sustained Rc and prolonged incubation/ infectious periods, suggesting COVID-19 is highly infectious. Although interventions in China have been effective in controlling secondary transmission, sustained global efforts are needed to contain an emerging pandemic. Alternative interventions can be explored using modelling studies to better inform policymaking as the outbreak continues.
DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2020.00321
PubMed: 32626719
PubMed Central: PMC7314927
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:32626719Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Spread and Impact of COVID-19 in China: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Predictions From Transmission-Dynamic Models.</title><author><name sortKey="Lin, Yi Fan" sort="Lin, Yi Fan" uniqKey="Lin Y" first="Yi-Fan" last="Lin">Yi-Fan Lin</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Duan, Qibin" sort="Duan, Qibin" uniqKey="Duan Q" first="Qibin" last="Duan">Qibin Duan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, Yiguo" sort="Zhou, Yiguo" uniqKey="Zhou Y" first="Yiguo" last="Zhou">Yiguo Zhou</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Tanwei" sort="Yuan, Tanwei" uniqKey="Yuan T" first="Tanwei" last="Yuan">Tanwei Yuan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Peiyang" sort="Li, Peiyang" uniqKey="Li P" first="Peiyang" last="Li">Peiyang Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fitzpatrick, Thomas" sort="Fitzpatrick, Thomas" uniqKey="Fitzpatrick T" first="Thomas" last="Fitzpatrick">Thomas Fitzpatrick</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Internal Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fu, Leiwen" sort="Fu, Leiwen" uniqKey="Fu L" first="Leiwen" last="Fu">Leiwen Fu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Feng, Anping" sort="Feng, Anping" uniqKey="Feng A" first="Anping" last="Feng">Anping Feng</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Luo, Ganfeng" sort="Luo, Ganfeng" uniqKey="Luo G" first="Ganfeng" last="Luo">Ganfeng Luo</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhan, Yuewei" sort="Zhan, Yuewei" uniqKey="Zhan Y" first="Yuewei" last="Zhan">Yuewei Zhan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liang, Bowen" sort="Liang, Bowen" uniqKey="Liang B" first="Bowen" last="Liang">Bowen Liang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fan, Song" sort="Fan, Song" uniqKey="Fan S" first="Song" last="Fan">Song Fan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lu, Yong" sort="Lu, Yong" uniqKey="Lu Y" first="Yong" last="Lu">Yong Lu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Bingyi" sort="Wang, Bingyi" uniqKey="Wang B" first="Bingyi" last="Wang">Bingyi Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Food Nutrition and Safety, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>College of Food Science and Technology, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Zhenyu" sort="Wang, Zhenyu" uniqKey="Wang Z" first="Zhenyu" last="Wang">Zhenyu Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, Heping" sort="Zhao, Heping" uniqKey="Zhao H" first="Heping" last="Zhao">Heping Zhao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Yanxiao" sort="Gao, Yanxiao" uniqKey="Gao Y" first="Yanxiao" last="Gao">Yanxiao Gao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Meijuan" sort="Li, Meijuan" uniqKey="Li M" first="Meijuan" last="Li">Meijuan Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Dahui" sort="Chen, Dahui" uniqKey="Chen D" first="Dahui" last="Chen">Dahui Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Xiaoting" sort="Chen, Xiaoting" uniqKey="Chen X" first="Xiaoting" last="Chen">Xiaoting Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ao, Yunlong" sort="Ao, Yunlong" uniqKey="Ao Y" first="Yunlong" last="Ao">Yunlong Ao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Linghua" sort="Li, Linghua" uniqKey="Li L" first="Linghua" last="Li">Linghua Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cai, Weiping" sort="Cai, Weiping" uniqKey="Cai W" first="Weiping" last="Cai">Weiping Cai</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Du, Xiangjun" sort="Du, Xiangjun" uniqKey="Du X" first="Xiangjun" last="Du">Xiangjun Du</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shu, Yuelong" sort="Shu, Yuelong" uniqKey="Shu Y" first="Yuelong" last="Shu">Yuelong Shu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zou, Huachun" sort="Zou, Huachun" uniqKey="Zou H" first="Huachun" last="Zou">Huachun Zou</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32626719</idno><idno type="pmid">32626719</idno><idno type="doi">10.3389/fmed.2020.00321</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC7314927</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">002135</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">002135</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Spread and Impact of COVID-19 in China: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Predictions From Transmission-Dynamic Models.</title><author><name sortKey="Lin, Yi Fan" sort="Lin, Yi Fan" uniqKey="Lin Y" first="Yi-Fan" last="Lin">Yi-Fan Lin</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Duan, Qibin" sort="Duan, Qibin" uniqKey="Duan Q" first="Qibin" last="Duan">Qibin Duan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, Yiguo" sort="Zhou, Yiguo" uniqKey="Zhou Y" first="Yiguo" last="Zhou">Yiguo Zhou</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Tanwei" sort="Yuan, Tanwei" uniqKey="Yuan T" first="Tanwei" last="Yuan">Tanwei Yuan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Peiyang" sort="Li, Peiyang" uniqKey="Li P" first="Peiyang" last="Li">Peiyang Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fitzpatrick, Thomas" sort="Fitzpatrick, Thomas" uniqKey="Fitzpatrick T" first="Thomas" last="Fitzpatrick">Thomas Fitzpatrick</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Internal Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fu, Leiwen" sort="Fu, Leiwen" uniqKey="Fu L" first="Leiwen" last="Fu">Leiwen Fu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Feng, Anping" sort="Feng, Anping" uniqKey="Feng A" first="Anping" last="Feng">Anping Feng</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Luo, Ganfeng" sort="Luo, Ganfeng" uniqKey="Luo G" first="Ganfeng" last="Luo">Ganfeng Luo</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhan, Yuewei" sort="Zhan, Yuewei" uniqKey="Zhan Y" first="Yuewei" last="Zhan">Yuewei Zhan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liang, Bowen" sort="Liang, Bowen" uniqKey="Liang B" first="Bowen" last="Liang">Bowen Liang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fan, Song" sort="Fan, Song" uniqKey="Fan S" first="Song" last="Fan">Song Fan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lu, Yong" sort="Lu, Yong" uniqKey="Lu Y" first="Yong" last="Lu">Yong Lu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Bingyi" sort="Wang, Bingyi" uniqKey="Wang B" first="Bingyi" last="Wang">Bingyi Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Food Nutrition and Safety, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>College of Food Science and Technology, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Zhenyu" sort="Wang, Zhenyu" uniqKey="Wang Z" first="Zhenyu" last="Wang">Zhenyu Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, Heping" sort="Zhao, Heping" uniqKey="Zhao H" first="Heping" last="Zhao">Heping Zhao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Yanxiao" sort="Gao, Yanxiao" uniqKey="Gao Y" first="Yanxiao" last="Gao">Yanxiao Gao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Meijuan" sort="Li, Meijuan" uniqKey="Li M" first="Meijuan" last="Li">Meijuan Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Dahui" sort="Chen, Dahui" uniqKey="Chen D" first="Dahui" last="Chen">Dahui Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Xiaoting" sort="Chen, Xiaoting" uniqKey="Chen X" first="Xiaoting" last="Chen">Xiaoting Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ao, Yunlong" sort="Ao, Yunlong" uniqKey="Ao Y" first="Yunlong" last="Ao">Yunlong Ao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Linghua" sort="Li, Linghua" uniqKey="Li L" first="Linghua" last="Li">Linghua Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cai, Weiping" sort="Cai, Weiping" uniqKey="Cai W" first="Weiping" last="Cai">Weiping Cai</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Du, Xiangjun" sort="Du, Xiangjun" uniqKey="Du X" first="Xiangjun" last="Du">Xiangjun Du</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shu, Yuelong" sort="Shu, Yuelong" uniqKey="Shu Y" first="Yuelong" last="Shu">Yuelong Shu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zou, Huachun" sort="Zou, Huachun" uniqKey="Zou H" first="Huachun" last="Zou">Huachun Zou</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Frontiers in medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">2296-858X</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><b>Background:</b> Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and quickly spread throughout China and the rest of the world. Many mathematical models have been developed to understand and predict the infectiousness of COVID-19. We aim to summarize these models to inform efforts to manage the current outbreak. <b>Methods:</b> We searched PubMed, Web of science, EMBASE, bioRxiv, medRxiv, arXiv, Preprints, and National Knowledge Infrastructure (Chinese database) for relevant studies published between 1 December 2019 and 21 February 2020. References were screened for additional publications. Crucial indicators were extracted and analysed. We also built a mathematical model for the evolution of the epidemic in Wuhan that synthesised extracted indicators. <b>Results:</b> Fifty-two articles involving 75 mathematical or statistical models were included in our systematic review. The overall median basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) was 3.77 [interquartile range (IQR) 2.78-5.13], which dropped to a controlled reproduction number (R<sub>c</sub>) of 1.88 (IQR 1.41-2.24) after city lockdown. The median incubation and infectious periods were 5.90 (IQR 4.78-6.25) and 9.94 (IQR 3.93-13.50) days, respectively. The median case-fatality rate (CFR) was 2.9% (IQR 2.3-5.4%). Our mathematical model showed that, in Wuhan, the peak time of infection is likely to be March 2020 with a median size of 98,333 infected cases (range 55,225-188,284). The earliest elimination of ongoing transmission is likely to be achieved around 7 May 2020. <b>Conclusions:</b> Our analysis found a sustained R<sub>c</sub> and prolonged incubation/ infectious periods, suggesting COVID-19 is highly infectious. Although interventions in China have been effective in controlling secondary transmission, sustained global efforts are needed to contain an emerging pandemic. Alternative interventions can be explored using modelling studies to better inform policymaking as the outbreak continues.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32626719</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>28</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2296-858X</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>7</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Frontiers in medicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Front Med (Lausanne)</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Spread and Impact of COVID-19 in China: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Predictions From Transmission-Dynamic Models.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>321</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3389/fmed.2020.00321</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText><b>Background:</b> Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and quickly spread throughout China and the rest of the world. Many mathematical models have been developed to understand and predict the infectiousness of COVID-19. We aim to summarize these models to inform efforts to manage the current outbreak. <b>Methods:</b> We searched PubMed, Web of science, EMBASE, bioRxiv, medRxiv, arXiv, Preprints, and National Knowledge Infrastructure (Chinese database) for relevant studies published between 1 December 2019 and 21 February 2020. References were screened for additional publications. Crucial indicators were extracted and analysed. We also built a mathematical model for the evolution of the epidemic in Wuhan that synthesised extracted indicators. <b>Results:</b> Fifty-two articles involving 75 mathematical or statistical models were included in our systematic review. The overall median basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) was 3.77 [interquartile range (IQR) 2.78-5.13], which dropped to a controlled reproduction number (R<sub>c</sub>) of 1.88 (IQR 1.41-2.24) after city lockdown. The median incubation and infectious periods were 5.90 (IQR 4.78-6.25) and 9.94 (IQR 3.93-13.50) days, respectively. The median case-fatality rate (CFR) was 2.9% (IQR 2.3-5.4%). Our mathematical model showed that, in Wuhan, the peak time of infection is likely to be March 2020 with a median size of 98,333 infected cases (range 55,225-188,284). The earliest elimination of ongoing transmission is likely to be achieved around 7 May 2020. <b>Conclusions:</b> Our analysis found a sustained R<sub>c</sub> and prolonged incubation/ infectious periods, suggesting COVID-19 is highly infectious. Although interventions in China have been effective in controlling secondary transmission, sustained global efforts are needed to contain an emerging pandemic. Alternative interventions can be explored using modelling studies to better inform policymaking as the outbreak continues.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 Lin, Duan, Zhou, Yuan, Li, Fitzpatrick, Fu, Feng, Luo, Zhan, Liang, Fan, Lu, Wang, Wang, Zhao, Gao, Li, Chen, Chen, Ao, Li, Cai, Du, Shu and Zou.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lin</LastName><ForeName>Yi-Fan</ForeName><Initials>YF</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Duan</LastName><ForeName>Qibin</ForeName><Initials>Q</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhou</LastName><ForeName>Yiguo</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yuan</LastName><ForeName>Tanwei</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Peiyang</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fitzpatrick</LastName><ForeName>Thomas</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Internal Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fu</LastName><ForeName>Leiwen</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Feng</LastName><ForeName>Anping</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Luo</LastName><ForeName>Ganfeng</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhan</LastName><ForeName>Yuewei</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liang</LastName><ForeName>Bowen</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fan</LastName><ForeName>Song</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lu</LastName><ForeName>Yong</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName><ForeName>Bingyi</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Food Nutrition and Safety, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Food Science and Technology, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName><ForeName>Zhenyu</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhao</LastName><ForeName>Heping</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gao</LastName><ForeName>Yanxiao</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Meijuan</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chen</LastName><ForeName>Dahui</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chen</LastName><ForeName>Xiaoting</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ao</LastName><ForeName>Yunlong</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Linghua</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cai</LastName><ForeName>Weiping</ForeName><Initials>W</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Du</LastName><ForeName>Xiangjun</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shu</LastName><ForeName>Yuelong</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zou</LastName><ForeName>Huachun</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D000078182">Systematic Review</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>18</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Switzerland</Country><MedlineTA>Front Med (Lausanne)</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101648047</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2296-858X</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">fatality</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">incubation</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">infectious period</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">mathematical model</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">the reproduction number</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>26</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>02</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>7</Month><Day>7</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>7</Month><Day>7</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>7</Month><Day>7</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32626719</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.3389/fmed.2020.00321</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7314927</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Euro Surveill. 2020 Feb;25(5):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32046819</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS Med. 2009 Jul 21;6(7):e1000097</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19621072</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Glob Health. 2020 Jun;10(1):011002</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32257174</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS One. 2020 Mar 31;15(3):e0230405</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32231374</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Clin Infect Dis. 2020 Apr 17;:</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32302377</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Infect. 2020 May;80(5):578-606</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32112887</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2020 Feb 29;395(10225):689-697</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32014114</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Ann Intern Med. 2020 May 5;172(9):577-582</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32150748</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 01;9(2):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32024089</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet Infect Dis. 2017 Dec;17(12):e420-e428</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">28757186</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 07;9(2):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32046137</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2016 Nov;12(11):2813-2832</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">27448625</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Evid Based Med. 2020 Feb;13(1):3-7</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32048815</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Adv Virol. 2011;2011:734690</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">22312351</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Euro Surveill. 2020 Jan;25(4):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32019669</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2020 May;41(5):594-596</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32183920</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Mar;92:214-217</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32007643</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>PLoS Curr. 2014 Dec 18;6:</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">25685622</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 17;9(2):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32079150</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 May;20(5):553-558</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32171059</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Value Health. 2003 Jan-Feb;6(1):9-17</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">12535234</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Epidemiol Infect. 2006 Apr;134(2):223-30</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16490124</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Front Med (Lausanne). 2020 Feb 27;7:9</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32175321</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 14;9(2):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32075152</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/LockdownV1/Data/Main/Corpus
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 002135 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 002135 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= LockdownV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Corpus
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:32626719
|texte= Spread and Impact of COVID-19 in China: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Predictions From Transmission-Dynamic Models.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Corpus/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:32626719" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Corpus/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a LockdownV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.38. |  |