The Coupled Impact of Emergency Responses and Population Flows on the COVID-19 Pandemic in China.
Identifieur interne : 000660 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 000659; suivant : 000661The Coupled Impact of Emergency Responses and Population Flows on the COVID-19 Pandemic in China.
Auteurs : Changxiu Cheng ; Tianyuan Zhang ; Changqing Song ; Shi Shen ; Yifan Jiang ; Xiangxue ZhangSource :
- GeoHealth [ 2471-1403 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread around the world and requires effective control measures. Like the human-to-human transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the distribution of COVID-19 was driven by population flow and required emergency response measures to slow down its spread and degrade the epidemic risk. The local epidemic risk of COVID-19 is a combination of emergency response measures and population flow. Because of the spatial heterogeneity, the different impacts of coupled emergency responses and population flow on the COVID-19 epidemic during the outbreak period and a control period are unclear. We examined and compared the impact of emergency response measures and population flow on China's epidemic risk after the Wuhan lockdown during the outbreak period and a control period. We found that the population flow out of Wuhan had a long-term impact on the epidemic's spread. In the outbreak period, a large population flow out of Wuhan led to nationwide migration mobility, which directly increased the epidemic in each province. Meanwhile, quick emergency responses mitigated the spread. Although low population flow to provinces far from Hubei delayed the outbreak in those provinces, relatively delayed emergency response increased the epidemic in the control period. Consequently, due to the strong transmission ability of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, no region correctly estimated the epidemic, and the relaxed emergency response raised the epidemic risks in the context of the outbreak.
DOI: 10.1029/2020GH000332
PubMed: 33344872
PubMed Central: PMC7735864
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uniqKey="Zhang T" first="Tianyuan" last="Zhang">Tianyuan Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Song, Changqing" sort="Song, Changqing" uniqKey="Song C" first="Changqing" last="Song">Changqing Song</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shen, Shi" sort="Shen, Shi" uniqKey="Shen S" first="Shi" last="Shen">Shi Shen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jiang, Yifan" sort="Jiang, Yifan" uniqKey="Jiang Y" first="Yifan" last="Jiang">Yifan Jiang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Xiangxue" sort="Zhang, Xiangxue" uniqKey="Zhang X" first="Xiangxue" last="Zhang">Xiangxue Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:33344872</idno><idno type="pmid">33344872</idno><idno type="doi">10.1029/2020GH000332</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC7735864</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000660</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000660</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">The Coupled Impact of Emergency Responses and Population Flows on the COVID-19 Pandemic in China.</title><author><name sortKey="Cheng, Changxiu" sort="Cheng, Changxiu" uniqKey="Cheng C" first="Changxiu" last="Cheng">Changxiu Cheng</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>National Tibetan Plateau Data Center Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Tianyuan" sort="Zhang, Tianyuan" uniqKey="Zhang T" first="Tianyuan" last="Zhang">Tianyuan Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Song, Changqing" sort="Song, Changqing" uniqKey="Song C" first="Changqing" last="Song">Changqing Song</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shen, Shi" sort="Shen, Shi" uniqKey="Shen S" first="Shi" last="Shen">Shi Shen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jiang, Yifan" sort="Jiang, Yifan" uniqKey="Jiang Y" first="Yifan" last="Jiang">Yifan Jiang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Xiangxue" sort="Zhang, Xiangxue" uniqKey="Zhang X" first="Xiangxue" last="Zhang">Xiangxue Zhang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">GeoHealth</title><idno type="eISSN">2471-1403</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread around the world and requires effective control measures. Like the human-to-human transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the distribution of COVID-19 was driven by population flow and required emergency response measures to slow down its spread and degrade the epidemic risk. The local epidemic risk of COVID-19 is a combination of emergency response measures and population flow. Because of the spatial heterogeneity, the different impacts of coupled emergency responses and population flow on the COVID-19 epidemic during the outbreak period and a control period are unclear. We examined and compared the impact of emergency response measures and population flow on China's epidemic risk after the Wuhan lockdown during the outbreak period and a control period. We found that the population flow out of Wuhan had a long-term impact on the epidemic's spread. In the outbreak period, a large population flow out of Wuhan led to nationwide migration mobility, which directly increased the epidemic in each province. Meanwhile, quick emergency responses mitigated the spread. Although low population flow to provinces far from Hubei delayed the outbreak in those provinces, relatively delayed emergency response increased the epidemic in the control period. Consequently, due to the strong transmission ability of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, no region correctly estimated the epidemic, and the relaxed emergency response raised the epidemic risks in the context of the outbreak.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">33344872</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>22</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2471-1403</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>4</Volume><Issue>12</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Dec</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>GeoHealth</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Geohealth</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>The Coupled Impact of Emergency Responses and Population Flows on the COVID-19 Pandemic in China.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e2020GH000332</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1029/2020GH000332</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread around the world and requires effective control measures. Like the human-to-human transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the distribution of COVID-19 was driven by population flow and required emergency response measures to slow down its spread and degrade the epidemic risk. The local epidemic risk of COVID-19 is a combination of emergency response measures and population flow. Because of the spatial heterogeneity, the different impacts of coupled emergency responses and population flow on the COVID-19 epidemic during the outbreak period and a control period are unclear. We examined and compared the impact of emergency response measures and population flow on China's epidemic risk after the Wuhan lockdown during the outbreak period and a control period. We found that the population flow out of Wuhan had a long-term impact on the epidemic's spread. In the outbreak period, a large population flow out of Wuhan led to nationwide migration mobility, which directly increased the epidemic in each province. Meanwhile, quick emergency responses mitigated the spread. Although low population flow to provinces far from Hubei delayed the outbreak in those provinces, relatively delayed emergency response increased the epidemic in the control period. Consequently, due to the strong transmission ability of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, no region correctly estimated the epidemic, and the relaxed emergency response raised the epidemic risks in the context of the outbreak.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>©2020. The Authors.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cheng</LastName><ForeName>Changxiu</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2988-8915</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>National Tibetan Plateau Data Center Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName><ForeName>Tianyuan</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2337-6209</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Song</LastName><ForeName>Changqing</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8449-4911</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shen</LastName><ForeName>Shi</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9126-229X</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Jiang</LastName><ForeName>Yifan</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName><ForeName>Xiangxue</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Geodata and Analysis, Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>14</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Geohealth</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101706476</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2471-1403</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID‐19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">GWR</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">infectious disease</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">spatial heterogeneity</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>The authors declare no conflict of interest relevant to this study.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>08</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>12</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>18</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>21</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>10</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>22</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>22</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">33344872</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1029/2020GH000332</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">GH2203</ArticleId><ArticleId 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