Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents.
Identifieur interne : 000333 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000332; suivant : 000334Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents.
Auteurs : Ira M. Longini [États-Unis] ; M Elizabeth Halloran ; Azhar Nizam ; Yang YangSource :
- American journal of epidemiology [ 0002-9262 ] ; 2004.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Antiviraux (usage thérapeutique), Bioterrorisme, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Flambées de maladies (), Grippe humaine (), Grippe humaine (mortalité), Grippe humaine (transmission), Humains, Modèles théoriques, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Processus stochastiques, Simulation numérique, Sujet âgé, Vaccins antigrippaux (usage thérapeutique), États-Unis d'Amérique (épidémiologie).
- MESH :
- mortalité : Grippe humaine.
- usage thérapeutique : Antiviraux, Grippe humaine, Vaccins antigrippaux.
- épidémiologie : États-Unis d'Amérique.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Bioterrorisme, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine, Humains, Modèles théoriques, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Processus stochastiques, Simulation numérique, Sujet âgé.
- Wicri :
- geographic : États-Unis.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Antiviral Agents (therapeutic use), Bioterrorism, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Influenza Vaccines (therapeutic use), Influenza, Human (mortality), Influenza, Human (prevention & control), Influenza, Human (transmission), Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Stochastic Processes, United States (epidemiology).
- MESH :
- chemical , therapeutic use : Antiviral Agents, Influenza Vaccines.
- geographic , epidemiology : United States.
- mortality : Influenza, Human.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks, Influenza, Human.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Bioterrorism, Child, Preschool, Computer Simulation, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Stochastic Processes.
Abstract
For the first wave of pandemic influenza or a bioterrorist influenza attack, antiviral agents would be one of the few options to contain the epidemic in the United States until adequate supplies of vaccine were available. The authors use stochastic epidemic simulations to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis to contain influenza. In this strategy, close contacts of suspected index influenza cases take antiviral agents prophylactically. The authors compare targeted antiviral prophylaxis with vaccination strategies. They model an influenza pandemic or bioterrorist attack for an agent similar to influenza A virus (H2N2) that caused the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958. In the absence of intervention, the model predicts an influenza illness attack rate of 33% of the population (95% confidence interval (CI): 30, 37) and an influenza death rate of 0.58 deaths/1,000 persons (95% Cl: 0.4, 0.8). With the use of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, if 80% of the exposed persons maintained prophylaxis for up to 8 weeks, the epidemic would be contained, and the model predicts a reduction to an illness attack rate of 2% (95% Cl: 0.2, 16) and a death rate of 0.04 deaths/1,000 persons (95% CI: 0.0003, 0.25). Such antiviral prophylaxis is nearly as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Vaccinating 80% of the children aged less than 19 years is almost as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Targeted antiviral prophylaxis has potential as an effective measure for containing influenza until adequate quantities of vaccine are available.
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwh092
PubMed: 15033640
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Longini</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, The Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA. longini@sph.emory.edu</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, The Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M Elizabeth Halloran</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nizam, Azhar" sort="Nizam, Azhar" uniqKey="Nizam A" first="Azhar" last="Nizam">Azhar Nizam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yang" sort="Yang, Yang" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yang" last="Yang">Yang Yang</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2004">2004</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:15033640</idno><idno type="pmid">15033640</idno><idno type="doi">10.1093/aje/kwh092</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000333</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000333</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000333</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000333</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents.</title><author><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M" last="Longini">Ira M. 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The authors use stochastic epidemic simulations to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis to contain influenza. In this strategy, close contacts of suspected index influenza cases take antiviral agents prophylactically. The authors compare targeted antiviral prophylaxis with vaccination strategies. They model an influenza pandemic or bioterrorist attack for an agent similar to influenza A virus (H2N2) that caused the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958. In the absence of intervention, the model predicts an influenza illness attack rate of 33% of the population (95% confidence interval (CI): 30, 37) and an influenza death rate of 0.58 deaths/1,000 persons (95% Cl: 0.4, 0.8). With the use of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, if 80% of the exposed persons maintained prophylaxis for up to 8 weeks, the epidemic would be contained, and the model predicts a reduction to an illness attack rate of 2% (95% Cl: 0.2, 16) and a death rate of 0.04 deaths/1,000 persons (95% CI: 0.0003, 0.25). Such antiviral prophylaxis is nearly as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Vaccinating 80% of the children aged less than 19 years is almost as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Targeted antiviral prophylaxis has potential as an effective measure for containing influenza until adequate quantities of vaccine are available.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">15033640</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2004</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>23</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2019</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>13</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">0002-9262</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>159</Volume><Issue>7</Issue><PubDate><Year>2004</Year><Month>Apr</Month><Day>01</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>American journal of epidemiology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Am. J. 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In the absence of intervention, the model predicts an influenza illness attack rate of 33% of the population (95% confidence interval (CI): 30, 37) and an influenza death rate of 0.58 deaths/1,000 persons (95% Cl: 0.4, 0.8). With the use of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, if 80% of the exposed persons maintained prophylaxis for up to 8 weeks, the epidemic would be contained, and the model predicts a reduction to an illness attack rate of 2% (95% Cl: 0.2, 16) and a death rate of 0.04 deaths/1,000 persons (95% CI: 0.0003, 0.25). Such antiviral prophylaxis is nearly as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. Vaccinating 80% of the children aged less than 19 years is almost as effective as vaccinating 80% of the population. 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