Mortality and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona.
Identifieur interne : 000043 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000042; suivant : 000044Mortality and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona.
Auteurs : April J. Cobos [États-Unis] ; Clinton G. Nelson [États-Unis] ; Megan Jehn [États-Unis] ; Cécile Viboud [États-Unis] ; Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis]Source :
- BMC infectious diseases [ 1471-2334 ] ; 2016.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Arizona (épidémiologie), Bases de données factuelles, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Grippe humaine (histoire), Grippe humaine (mortalité), Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Histoire du 20ème siècle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Journaux, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Pandémies, Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A (isolement et purification), Sujet âgé, Taux de survie.
- MESH :
- histoire : Grippe humaine.
- isolement et purification : Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A.
- mortalité : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Arizona, Grippe humaine.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Bases de données factuelles, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Femelle, Histoire du 20ème siècle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Journaux, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Pandémies, Sujet âgé, Taux de survie.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Arizona (epidemiology), Child, Child, Preschool, Databases, Factual, Female, History, 20th Century, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype (isolation & purification), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (history), Influenza, Human (mortality), Influenza, Human (transmission), Middle Aged, Newspapers as Topic, Pandemics, Survival Rate, Young Adult.
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Arizona, Influenza, Human.
- history : Influenza, Human.
- isolation & purification : Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype.
- mortality : Influenza, Human.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Databases, Factual, Female, History, 20th Century, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Middle Aged, Newspapers as Topic, Pandemics, Survival Rate, Young Adult.
Abstract
While prior studies have quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic at broad geographic regions in the United States, little is known about the pandemic impact at a local level. Here we focus on analyzing the transmissibility and mortality burden of this pandemic in Arizona, a setting where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-016-1716-7
PubMed: 27516082
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Cobos</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nelson, Clinton G" sort="Nelson, Clinton G" uniqKey="Nelson C" first="Clinton G" last="Nelson">Clinton G. 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Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA. gchowell@gsu.edu.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">BMC infectious diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1471-2334</idno><imprint><date when="2016" type="published">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Arizona (epidemiology)</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Databases, Factual</term><term>Female</term><term>History, 20th Century</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infant</term><term>Infant, Newborn</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype (isolation & purification)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (history)</term><term>Influenza, Human (mortality)</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Newspapers as Topic</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Survival Rate</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Arizona (épidémiologie)</term><term>Bases de données factuelles</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Grippe humaine (histoire)</term><term>Grippe humaine (mortalité)</term><term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Histoire du 20ème siècle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Jeune adulte</term><term>Journaux</term><term>Nourrisson</term><term>Nouveau-né</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A (isolement et purification)</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Taux de survie</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Arizona</term><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="histoire" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="history" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolation & purification" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolement et purification" xml:lang="fr"><term>Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Arizona</term><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Aged</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Databases, Factual</term><term>Female</term><term>History, 20th Century</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infant</term><term>Infant, Newborn</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Newspapers as Topic</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Survival Rate</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Bases de données factuelles</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Histoire du 20ème siècle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Jeune adulte</term><term>Journaux</term><term>Nourrisson</term><term>Nouveau-né</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Taux de survie</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">While prior studies have quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic at broad geographic regions in the United States, little is known about the pandemic impact at a local level. Here we focus on analyzing the transmissibility and mortality burden of this pandemic in Arizona, a setting where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" IndexingMethod="Curated" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">27516082</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2017</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>06</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>02</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1471-2334</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>16</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2016</Year><Month>Aug</Month><Day>11</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>BMC infectious diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>BMC Infect. Dis.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Mortality and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>405</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1186/s12879-016-1716-7</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">While prior studies have quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic at broad geographic regions in the United States, little is known about the pandemic impact at a local level. Here we focus on analyzing the transmissibility and mortality burden of this pandemic in Arizona, a setting where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, we quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 H2N2 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and assumed generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles published during 1957-1958 were also examined.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 16.59 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups exhibit very low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, the standardized mortality ratio was greatest (4.06) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on mortality rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was estimated at 1.08-1.11, assuming 3- or 4-day generation intervals with exponential or fixed distributions.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Maricopa County exhibited very low mortality impact associated with the 1957 influenza pandemic. Understanding the relatively low excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County during this historic pandemic may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cobos</LastName><ForeName>April J</ForeName><Initials>AJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Barrett, the Honors College, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Nelson</LastName><ForeName>Clinton G</ForeName><Initials>CG</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Jehn</LastName><ForeName>Megan</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Viboud</LastName><ForeName>Cécile</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chowell</LastName><ForeName>Gerardo</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA. gchowell@gsu.edu.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA. gchowell@gsu.edu.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA. gchowell@gsu.edu.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016456">Historical Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2016</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>11</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>BMC Infect Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>100968551</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1471-2334</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000293" MajorTopicYN="N">Adolescent</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D001130" MajorTopicYN="N">Arizona</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002648" MajorTopicYN="N">Child</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002675" MajorTopicYN="N">Child, Preschool</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D016208" MajorTopicYN="N">Databases, Factual</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005260" MajorTopicYN="N">Female</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D049673" MajorTopicYN="N">History, 20th Century</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007223" MajorTopicYN="N">Infant</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007231" MajorTopicYN="N">Infant, Newborn</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D053121" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000302" MajorTopicYN="N">isolation & purification</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000266" MajorTopicYN="N">history</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="N">mortality</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009524" MajorTopicYN="N">Newspapers as Topic</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015996" MajorTopicYN="N">Survival Rate</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D055815" MajorTopicYN="N">Young Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">1957 influenza</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Arizona</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Asian influenza</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">H2N2 virus</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Maricopa County</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Mathematical epidemiology</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Mortality rates</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Reproduction number</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Transmissibility</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate 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