Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959-1999.
Identifieur interne : 000327 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000326; suivant : 000328Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959-1999.
Auteurs : Thomas A. Reichert ; Lone Simonsen ; Ashutosh Sharma ; Scott A. Pardo ; David S. Fedson ; Mark A. MillerSource :
- American journal of epidemiology [ 0002-9262 ] ; 2004.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : United States.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- mortality : Cardiovascular Diseases, Diabetes Mellitus, Influenza, Human, Myocardial Ischemia.
- Aged, Death Certificates, Epidemiologic Methods, Humans, Seasons.
Abstract
In economically developed countries, mortality increases distinctly during winter. Many causes have been suggested, including light-dark cycles, temperature/weather, and infectious agents. The authors analyzed monthly mortality in the United States during the period 1959-1999 for four major disease classes. The authors isolated the seasonal component of mortality by removing trends and standardizing the time series. They evaluated four properties: coincidence in mortality peaks, autocorrelation structure and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, magnitude, and age distribution. Peak months of mortality for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus coincided appropriately with peaks in pneumonia and influenza, and coefficients of autocorrelation and ARIMA models were essentially indistinguishable. The magnitude of the seasonal component was highly correlated with traditional measures of excess mortality and was significantly larger in seasons dominated by influenza A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) viruses than in seasons dominated by A(H1N1) or B viruses. There was an age shift in mortality during and after the 1968/69 pandemic in each disease class, with features specific to influenza A(H3N2). These findings suggest that the cause of the winter increase in US mortality is singular and probably influenza. Weather and other factors may determine the timing and modulate the magnitude of the winter-season increase in mortality, but the primary determinant appears to be the influenza virus.
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwh227
PubMed: 15321847
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:15321847Le document en format XML
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Pardo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fedson, David S" sort="Fedson, David S" uniqKey="Fedson D" first="David S" last="Fedson">David S. Fedson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Miller, Mark A" sort="Miller, Mark A" uniqKey="Miller M" first="Mark A" last="Miller">Mark A. Miller</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2004">2004</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:15321847</idno><idno type="pmid">15321847</idno><idno type="doi">10.1093/aje/kwh227</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000327</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000327</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959-1999.</title><author><name sortKey="Reichert, Thomas A" sort="Reichert, Thomas A" uniqKey="Reichert T" first="Thomas A" last="Reichert">Thomas A. Reichert</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Entropy Research Institute, 262 West Saddle River Road, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458, USA. treichert@entropylimited.com</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, Lone" sort="Simonsen, Lone" uniqKey="Simonsen L" first="Lone" last="Simonsen">Lone Simonsen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sharma, Ashutosh" sort="Sharma, Ashutosh" uniqKey="Sharma A" first="Ashutosh" last="Sharma">Ashutosh Sharma</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pardo, Scott A" sort="Pardo, Scott A" uniqKey="Pardo S" first="Scott A" last="Pardo">Scott A. Pardo</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fedson, David S" sort="Fedson, David S" uniqKey="Fedson D" first="David S" last="Fedson">David S. Fedson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Miller, Mark A" sort="Miller, Mark A" uniqKey="Miller M" first="Mark A" last="Miller">Mark A. Miller</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">American journal of epidemiology</title><idno type="ISSN">0002-9262</idno><imprint><date when="2004" type="published">2004</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Aged</term><term>Cardiovascular Diseases (mortality)</term><term>Death Certificates</term><term>Diabetes Mellitus (mortality)</term><term>Epidemiologic Methods</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (mortality)</term><term>Myocardial Ischemia (mortality)</term><term>Seasons</term><term>United States (epidemiology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>United States</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Cardiovascular Diseases</term><term>Diabetes Mellitus</term><term>Influenza, Human</term><term>Myocardial Ischemia</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Aged</term><term>Death Certificates</term><term>Epidemiologic Methods</term><term>Humans</term><term>Seasons</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">In economically developed countries, mortality increases distinctly during winter. Many causes have been suggested, including light-dark cycles, temperature/weather, and infectious agents. The authors analyzed monthly mortality in the United States during the period 1959-1999 for four major disease classes. The authors isolated the seasonal component of mortality by removing trends and standardizing the time series. They evaluated four properties: coincidence in mortality peaks, autocorrelation structure and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, magnitude, and age distribution. Peak months of mortality for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus coincided appropriately with peaks in pneumonia and influenza, and coefficients of autocorrelation and ARIMA models were essentially indistinguishable. The magnitude of the seasonal component was highly correlated with traditional measures of excess mortality and was significantly larger in seasons dominated by influenza A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) viruses than in seasons dominated by A(H1N1) or B viruses. There was an age shift in mortality during and after the 1968/69 pandemic in each disease class, with features specific to influenza A(H3N2). These findings suggest that the cause of the winter increase in US mortality is singular and probably influenza. Weather and other factors may determine the timing and modulate the magnitude of the winter-season increase in mortality, but the primary determinant appears to be the influenza virus.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">15321847</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2004</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>21</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2005</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>22</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">0002-9262</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>160</Volume><Issue>5</Issue><PubDate><Year>2004</Year><Month>Sep</Month><Day>01</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>American journal of epidemiology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Am. J. Epidemiol.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959-1999.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>492-502</MedlinePgn></Pagination><Abstract><AbstractText>In economically developed countries, mortality increases distinctly during winter. Many causes have been suggested, including light-dark cycles, temperature/weather, and infectious agents. The authors analyzed monthly mortality in the United States during the period 1959-1999 for four major disease classes. The authors isolated the seasonal component of mortality by removing trends and standardizing the time series. They evaluated four properties: coincidence in mortality peaks, autocorrelation structure and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, magnitude, and age distribution. Peak months of mortality for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus coincided appropriately with peaks in pneumonia and influenza, and coefficients of autocorrelation and ARIMA models were essentially indistinguishable. The magnitude of the seasonal component was highly correlated with traditional measures of excess mortality and was significantly larger in seasons dominated by influenza A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) viruses than in seasons dominated by A(H1N1) or B viruses. There was an age shift in mortality during and after the 1968/69 pandemic in each disease class, with features specific to influenza A(H3N2). These findings suggest that the cause of the winter increase in US mortality is singular and probably influenza. Weather and other factors may determine the timing and modulate the magnitude of the winter-season increase in mortality, but the primary determinant appears to be the influenza virus.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Reichert</LastName><ForeName>Thomas A</ForeName><Initials>TA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Entropy Research Institute, 262 West Saddle River Road, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458, USA. treichert@entropylimited.com</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Simonsen</LastName><ForeName>Lone</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sharma</LastName><ForeName>Ashutosh</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pardo</LastName><ForeName>Scott A</ForeName><Initials>SA</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Fedson</LastName><ForeName>David S</ForeName><Initials>DS</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Miller</LastName><ForeName>Mark A</ForeName><Initials>MA</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Am J Epidemiol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>7910653</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0002-9262</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002318" MajorTopicYN="N">Cardiovascular Diseases</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="N">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003644" MajorTopicYN="N">Death Certificates</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003920" MajorTopicYN="N">Diabetes Mellitus</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="N">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004812" MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemiologic Methods</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D017202" MajorTopicYN="N">Myocardial Ischemia</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="N">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012621" MajorTopicYN="N">Seasons</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014481" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">United States</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2004</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>5</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2004</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>5</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2004</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>5</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15321847</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1093/aje/kwh227</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">160/5/492</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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