An exploratory method for estimating the changing speed of epidemic waves from historical data.
Identifieur interne : 000249 ( PubMed/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000248; suivant : 000250An exploratory method for estimating the changing speed of epidemic waves from historical data.
Auteurs : Andrew D. Cliff [Royaume-Uni] ; Peter Haggett ; Matthew Smallman-RaynorSource :
- International journal of epidemiology [ 1464-3685 ] ; 2008.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Analyse de survie, Espagne (épidémiologie), Femelle, Flambées de maladies, Grippe humaine (diagnostic), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Hong Kong (épidémiologie), Humains, Islande (épidémiologie), Modèles théoriques, Morbidité (tendances), Mâle, Prévalence, Royaume-Uni (épidémiologie), Sensibilité et spécificité, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A, Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A, Sous-type H3N2 du virus de la grippe A, Surveillance sentinelle, Valeur prédictive des tests, Études de cohortes.
- MESH :
- diagnostic : Grippe humaine.
- tendances : Morbidité.
- épidémiologie : Espagne, Grippe humaine, Hong Kong, Islande, Royaume-Uni.
- Analyse de survie, Femelle, Flambées de maladies, Humains, Modèles théoriques, Mâle, Prévalence, Sensibilité et spécificité, Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A, Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A, Sous-type H3N2 du virus de la grippe A, Surveillance sentinelle, Valeur prédictive des tests, Études de cohortes.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Cohort Studies, Disease Outbreaks, Female, Hong Kong (epidemiology), Humans, Iceland (epidemiology), Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype, Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype, Influenza, Human (diagnosis), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Male, Models, Theoretical, Morbidity (trends), Predictive Value of Tests, Prevalence, Sensitivity and Specificity, Sentinel Surveillance, Spain (epidemiology), Survival Analysis, United Kingdom (epidemiology).
- MESH :
- diagnosis : Influenza, Human.
- epidemiology : Hong Kong, Iceland, Influenza, Human, Spain, United Kingdom.
- trends : Morbidity.
- Cohort Studies, Disease Outbreaks, Female, Humans, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype, Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype, Male, Models, Theoretical, Predictive Value of Tests, Prevalence, Sensitivity and Specificity, Sentinel Surveillance, Survival Analysis.
Abstract
Historical data are necessary to establish long-term trends in disease incidence but pose analytical problems since their accuracy and reliability may be poorly specified.
DOI: 10.1093/ije/dym240
PubMed: 18056121
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
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pubmed:18056121Le document en format XML
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<term>Royaume-Uni</term>
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<term>Predictive Value of Tests</term>
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<term>Flambées de maladies</term>
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<term>Mâle</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Historical data are necessary to establish long-term trends in disease incidence but pose analytical problems since their accuracy and reliability may be poorly specified.</div>
</front>
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<pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">18056121</PMID>
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<Month>03</Month>
<Day>27</Day>
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<Title>International journal of epidemiology</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>Int J Epidemiol</ISOAbbreviation>
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<ArticleTitle>An exploratory method for estimating the changing speed of epidemic waves from historical data.</ArticleTitle>
<Pagination><MedlinePgn>106-12</MedlinePgn>
</Pagination>
<Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">Historical data are necessary to establish long-term trends in disease incidence but pose analytical problems since their accuracy and reliability may be poorly specified.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">A robust measure of the spatial velocity, R(0A), of epidemic waves from space-time series is proposed using binary data. The method was applied to the historical records of influenza morbidity for the island of Iceland over a 61-year period of influenza seasons from 1915-16 to 1975-76.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">The onset of influenza waves tended to speed up over the period studied and the three pandemic waves associated with viral shifts in influenza A [Spanish influenza H1N1 (1918-19), Asian influenza H2N2 (1957-58) and Hong Kong influenza H3N2 (1968-69)] spread more rapidly around the island and struck earlier in the influenza season than did inter-pandemic waves, even when the latter were equally intensive as measured by total number of cases and case incidence.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="DISCUSSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The potential for using R(0A) in a real-time context is explored using French influenza data.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The new measure of wave velocity appears to be applicable to those historical time series where breakdown into regional or local areas is available. The study is being extended to (i) other countries where similar influenza time series are available and (ii) to other diseases within Iceland.</AbstractText>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cliff</LastName>
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<ForeName>Matthew</ForeName>
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