The purpose of the present article was to determine whether avian influenza (AI) is capable of causing a pandemic. Using research from a variety of medical journals, books and texts, the present paper evaluates the probability of the AI virus becoming sufficiently virulent to pose a global threat.

Previous influenza A pandemics from the past century are reviewed, focusing on the mortality rate and the qualities of the virus that distinguish it from other viruses. Each of the influenza A viruses reviewed were classified as pandemic because they met three key criteria: first, the viruses were highly pathogenic within the human population; second, the viruses were easily transmissible from person to person; and finally, the viruses were novel, such that a large proportion of the population was susceptible to infection. Information about the H5N1 subtype of AI has also been critically assessed. Evidence suggests that this AI subtype is both novel and highly pathogenic. The mortality rate from epidemics in Thailand in 2004 was as high as 66%. Clearly, this virus is aggressive. It causes a high death rate, proving that humans have a low immunity to the disease.

To date, there has been little evidence to suggest that AI can spread among humans. There have been cases where the virus has transferred from birds to humans, in settings such as farms or open markets with live animal vending. If AI were to undergo a genetic reassortment that allowed itself to transmit easily from person to person, then a serious pandemic could ensue, resulting in high morbidity and mortality. Experts at the World Health Organization and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention agree that AI has the potential to undergo an antigenic shift, thus triggering the next pandemic.