Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment
Identifieur interne : 000C54 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000C53; suivant : 000C55Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment
Auteurs : Marc Lipsitch [États-Unis] ; Wendy Barclay [Royaume-Uni] ; Rahul Raman [États-Unis] ; Charles J. Russell [États-Unis] ; Jessica A. Belser [États-Unis] ; Sarah Cobey [États-Unis] ; Peter M. Kasson [États-Unis] ; James O. Lloyd-Smith [États-Unis] ; Sebastian Maurer-Stroh [Singapour] ; Steven Riley [Royaume-Uni] ; Catherine Aa Beauchemin [Canada] ; Trevor Bedford [États-Unis] ; Thomas C. Friedrich [États-Unis] ; Andreas Handel [États-Unis] ; Sander Herfst [Pays-Bas] ; Pablo R. Murcia [Royaume-Uni] ; Benjamin Roche [France] ; Claus O. Wilke [États-Unis] ; Colin A. Russell [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- eLife [ 2050-084X ] ; ????.
Abstract
The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk.
Url:
DOI: 10.7554/eLife.18491
PubMed: 27834632
PubMed Central: 5156527
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</nlm:aff>
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</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
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<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff10"><institution content-type="dept">Department of Molecular Physiology and Biological Physics</institution>
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</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
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<author><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, James O" sort="Lloyd Smith, James O" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J" first="James O" last="Lloyd-Smith">James O. Lloyd-Smith</name>
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</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
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</nlm:aff>
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<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff15"><institution content-type="dept">School of Biological Sciences</institution>
,<institution>Nanyang Technological University</institution>
,<addr-line>Singapore</addr-line>
,<country>Singapore</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Singapour</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff16"><institution content-type="dept">MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling</institution>
,<institution>School of Public Health, Imperial College London</institution>
,<addr-line>London</addr-line>
,<country>United Kingdom</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff17"><institution content-type="dept">Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology</institution>
,<institution>School of Public Health, Imperial College London</institution>
,<addr-line>London</addr-line>
,<country>United Kingdom</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Beauchemin, Catherine Aa" sort="Beauchemin, Catherine Aa" uniqKey="Beauchemin C" first="Catherine Aa" last="Beauchemin">Catherine Aa Beauchemin</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff18"><institution content-type="dept">Department of Physics</institution>
,<institution>Ryerson University</institution>
,<addr-line>Toronto</addr-line>
,<country>Canada</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bedford, Trevor" sort="Bedford, Trevor" uniqKey="Bedford T" first="Trevor" last="Bedford">Trevor Bedford</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff19"><institution content-type="dept">Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division</institution>
,<institution>Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Seattle</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Friedrich, Thomas C" sort="Friedrich, Thomas C" uniqKey="Friedrich T" first="Thomas C" last="Friedrich">Thomas C. Friedrich</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff20"><institution content-type="dept">Department of Pathobiological Sciences</institution>
,<institution>University of Wisconsin School of Veterinary Medicine</institution>
,<addr-line>Madison</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Handel, Andreas" sort="Handel, Andreas" uniqKey="Handel A" first="Andreas" last="Handel">Andreas Handel</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff21"><institution content-type="dept">Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health</institution>
,<institution>University of Georgia</institution>
,<addr-line>Athens</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Herfst, Sander" sort="Herfst, Sander" uniqKey="Herfst S" first="Sander" last="Herfst">Sander Herfst</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff22"><institution content-type="dept">Department of Viroscience</institution>
,<institution>Erasmus Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Rotterdam</addr-line>
,<country>Netherlands</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Murcia, Pablo R" sort="Murcia, Pablo R" uniqKey="Murcia P" first="Pablo R" last="Murcia">Pablo R. Murcia</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff23"><institution>MRC-University of Glasgow Centre For Virus Research</institution>
,<addr-line>Glasgow</addr-line>
,<country>United Kingdom</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Roche, Benjamin" sort="Roche, Benjamin" uniqKey="Roche B" first="Benjamin" last="Roche">Benjamin Roche</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff24"><institution>IRD/UPMC UMMISCO</institution>
,<addr-line>Montpellier</addr-line>
,<country>France</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">France</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wilke, Claus O" sort="Wilke, Claus O" uniqKey="Wilke C" first="Claus O" last="Wilke">Claus O. Wilke</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff25"><institution content-type="dept">Center for Computational Biology and Bioinformatics</institution>
,<institution>Institute for Cellular and Molecular Biology, The University of Texas at Austin</institution>
,<addr-line>Austin</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff26"><institution content-type="dept">Department of Integrative Biology</institution>
,<institution>The University of Texas at Austin</institution>
,<addr-line>Austin</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Russell, Colin A" sort="Russell, Colin A" uniqKey="Russell C" first="Colin A" last="Russell">Colin A. Russell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff27"><institution content-type="dept">Department of Veterinary Medicine</institution>
,<institution>University of Cambridge</institution>
,<addr-line>Cambridge</addr-line>
,<country>United Kingdom</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">eLife</title>
<idno type="eISSN">2050-084X</idno>
<imprint><date when="????">????</date>
</imprint>
</series>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk.</p>
<p><bold>DOI:</bold>
<ext-link ext-link-type="doi" xlink:href="10.7554/eLife.18491.001">http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18491.001</ext-link>
</p>
</div>
</front>
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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">eLife</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Elife</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">eLife</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">eLife</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>eLife</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2050-084X</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">27834632</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">5156527</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">18491</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.7554/eLife.18491</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Epidemiology and Global Health</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Microbiology and Infectious Disease</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="sub-display-channel"><subject>Science Forum</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="display-channel"><subject>Feature Article</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib id="author-16032" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lipsitch</surname>
<given-names>Marc</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1504-9213</contrib-id>
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<given-names>Peter M</given-names>
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<contrib id="author-16022" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lloyd-Smith</surname>
<given-names>James O</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7941-502X</contrib-id>
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</contrib>
<contrib id="author-16024" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Maurer-Stroh</surname>
<given-names>Sebastian</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">13</xref>
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<xref ref-type="fn" rid="conf2"></xref>
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<contrib id="author-9283" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Riley</surname>
<given-names>Steven</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">16</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff17">17</xref>
<xref ref-type="other" rid="par-7"></xref>
<xref ref-type="other" rid="par-8"></xref>
<xref ref-type="other" rid="par-9"></xref>
<xref ref-type="other" rid="par-10"></xref>
<xref ref-type="other" rid="par-11"></xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="con10"></xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="conf2"></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="author-61368" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Beauchemin</surname>
<given-names>Catherine AA</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-0069</contrib-id>
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<xref ref-type="other" rid="par-12"></xref>
<xref ref-type="other" rid="par-13"></xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="con11"></xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="conf2"></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="author-9070" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bedford</surname>
<given-names>Trevor</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff19">19</xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="con12"></xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="conf2"></xref>
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<contrib id="author-61370" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Friedrich</surname>
<given-names>Thomas C</given-names>
</name>
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</contrib>
<contrib id="author-66794" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Handel</surname>
<given-names>Andreas</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4622-1146</contrib-id>
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<xref ref-type="fn" rid="con14"></xref>
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</contrib>
<contrib id="author-16020" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Herfst</surname>
<given-names>Sander</given-names>
</name>
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<xref ref-type="other" rid="par-14"></xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="con15"></xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="conf2"></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="author-61372" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Murcia</surname>
<given-names>Pablo R</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4352-394X</contrib-id>
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<xref ref-type="fn" rid="conf2"></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="author-59099" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Roche</surname>
<given-names>Benjamin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff24">24</xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="con17"></xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="conf2"></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="author-12344" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wilke</surname>
<given-names>Claus O</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7470-9261</contrib-id>
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<xref ref-type="other" rid="par-16"></xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="con18"></xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="conf2"></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="author-4919" contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Russell</surname>
<given-names>Colin A</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2113-162X</contrib-id>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff27">27</xref>
<xref ref-type="other" rid="par-17"></xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="con19"></xref>
<xref ref-type="fn" rid="conf3"></xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="aff1"><label>1</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics</institution>
,<institution>Harvard T. H Chan School of Public Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Boston</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2"><label>2</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Epidemiology</institution>
,<institution>Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Boston</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3"><label>3</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases</institution>
,<institution>Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Boston</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4"><label>4</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Division of Infectious Disease, Faculty of Medicine</institution>
,<institution>Imperial College</institution>
,<addr-line>London</addr-line>
,<country>United Kingdom</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5"><label>5</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Biological Engineering, Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research</institution>
,<institution>Massachusetts Institute of Technology</institution>
,<addr-line>Cambridge</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6"><label>6</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Infectious Diseases</institution>
,<institution>St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital</institution>
,<addr-line>Memphis</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7"><label>7</label>
<institution>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>
,<addr-line>Atlanta</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8"><label>8</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology</institution>
,<institution>University of Chicago</institution>
,<addr-line>Chicago</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9"><label>9</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Biomedical Engineering</institution>
,<institution>University of Virginia</institution>
,<addr-line>Charlottesville</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10"><label>10</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Molecular Physiology and Biological Physics</institution>
,<institution>University of Virginia</institution>
,<addr-line>Charlottesville</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11"><label>11</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology</institution>
,<institution>University of California, Los Angeles</institution>
,<addr-line>Los Angeles</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12"><label>12</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Fogarty International Center</institution>
,<institution>National Institutes of Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Bethesda</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13"><label>13</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Bioinformatics Institute</institution>
,<institution>Agency for Science Technology and Research</institution>
,<addr-line>Singapore</addr-line>
,<country>Singapore</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14"><label>14</label>
<institution content-type="dept">National Public Health Laboratory, Communicable Diseases Division</institution>
,<institution>Ministry of Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Singapore</addr-line>
,<country>Singapore</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff15"><label>15</label>
<institution content-type="dept">School of Biological Sciences</institution>
,<institution>Nanyang Technological University</institution>
,<addr-line>Singapore</addr-line>
,<country>Singapore</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff16"><label>16</label>
<institution content-type="dept">MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling</institution>
,<institution>School of Public Health, Imperial College London</institution>
,<addr-line>London</addr-line>
,<country>United Kingdom</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff17"><label>17</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology</institution>
,<institution>School of Public Health, Imperial College London</institution>
,<addr-line>London</addr-line>
,<country>United Kingdom</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff18"><label>18</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Physics</institution>
,<institution>Ryerson University</institution>
,<addr-line>Toronto</addr-line>
,<country>Canada</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff19"><label>19</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division</institution>
,<institution>Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Seattle</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff20"><label>20</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Pathobiological Sciences</institution>
,<institution>University of Wisconsin School of Veterinary Medicine</institution>
,<addr-line>Madison</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff21"><label>21</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health</institution>
,<institution>University of Georgia</institution>
,<addr-line>Athens</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff22"><label>22</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Viroscience</institution>
,<institution>Erasmus Medical Center</institution>
,<addr-line>Rotterdam</addr-line>
,<country>Netherlands</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff23"><label>23</label>
<institution>MRC-University of Glasgow Centre For Virus Research</institution>
,<addr-line>Glasgow</addr-line>
,<country>United Kingdom</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff24"><label>24</label>
<institution>IRD/UPMC UMMISCO</institution>
,<addr-line>Montpellier</addr-line>
,<country>France</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff25"><label>25</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Center for Computational Biology and Bioinformatics</institution>
,<institution>Institute for Cellular and Molecular Biology, The University of Texas at Austin</institution>
,<addr-line>Austin</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff26"><label>26</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Integrative Biology</institution>
,<institution>The University of Texas at Austin</institution>
,<addr-line>Austin</addr-line>
,<country>United States</country>
</aff>
<aff id="aff27"><label>27</label>
<institution content-type="dept">Department of Veterinary Medicine</institution>
,<institution>University of Cambridge</institution>
,<addr-line>Cambridge</addr-line>
,<country>United Kingdom</country>
</aff>
</contrib-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Guan</surname>
<given-names>Yi</given-names>
</name>
<aff id="aff28"><institution>University of Hong Kong</institution>
,<country>Hong Kong</country>
</aff>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><email>mlipsitc@hsph.harvard.edu</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date date-type="pub" publication-format="electronic"><day>11</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>5</volume>
<elocation-id>e18491</elocation-id>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>09</day>
<month>6</month>
<year>2016</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>03</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2016</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/"><license-p>This is an open-access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication</ext-link>
.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="elife-18491.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract><p>The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk.</p>
<p><bold>DOI:</bold>
<ext-link ext-link-type="doi" xlink:href="10.7554/eLife.18491.001">http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18491.001</ext-link>
</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group kwd-group-type="author-keywords"><title>Author Keywords</title>
<kwd>pandemic</kwd>
<kwd>risk prediction</kwd>
<kwd>influenza A</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<kwd-group kwd-group-type="research-organism"><title>Research Organism</title>
<kwd>Human</kwd>
<kwd>Virus</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group><award-group id="par-1"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="FundRef">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000002</institution-id>
<institution>National Institutes of Health</institution>
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</funding-source>
<award-id>U54 GM088558</award-id>
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<institution>National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases</institution>
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<award-id>Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance (Contract HHSN272201400006C)</award-id>
<principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Russell</surname>
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<principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Riley</surname>
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</funding-source>
<award-id>VIDI grant 91715372</award-id>
<principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Herfst</surname>
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</name>
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<institution>Medical Research Council</institution>
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</funding-source>
<award-id>G0801822</award-id>
<principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Murcia</surname>
<given-names>Pablo R</given-names>
</name>
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<institution>National Institutes of Health</institution>
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</funding-source>
<award-id>R01 GM088344</award-id>
<principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Wilke</surname>
<given-names>Claus O</given-names>
</name>
</principal-award-recipient>
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<award-group id="par-17"><funding-source><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="FundRef">http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000288</institution-id>
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</funding-source>
<award-id>University Research Fellowship</award-id>
<principal-award-recipient><name><surname>Russell</surname>
<given-names>Colin A</given-names>
</name>
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</award-group>
<funding-statement>The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.</funding-statement>
</funding-group>
<custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>elife-xml-version</meta-name>
<meta-value>2.5</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
<custom-meta specific-use="meta-only"><meta-name>Author impact statement</meta-name>
<meta-value>We identify key strengths and limitations in use of viral genotyping and phenotyping to estimate pandemic risk from influenza A viruses, focusing on 3 traits, hemagglutinin binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency.</meta-value>
</custom-meta>
</custom-meta-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
</record>
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