The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza
Identifieur interne : 000B02 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000B01; suivant : 000B03The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza
Auteurs : Shweta Bansal [États-Unis] ; Babak Pourbohloul [Canada] ; Nathaniel Hupert [États-Unis] ; Bryan Grenfell [États-Unis] ; Lauren Ancel Meyers [États-Unis]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2010.
Abstract
As Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.
Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.
Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0009360
PubMed: 20195468
PubMed Central: 2829076
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wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pourbohloul, Babak" sort="Pourbohloul, Babak" uniqKey="Pourbohloul B" first="Babak" last="Pourbohloul">Babak Pourbohloul</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Division of Mathematical Modeling, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Mathematical Modeling, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><addr-line>School of Population and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Population and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hupert, Nathaniel" sort="Hupert, Nathaniel" uniqKey="Hupert N" first="Nathaniel" last="Hupert">Nathaniel Hupert</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5"><addr-line>Department of Public Health, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Public Health, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6"><addr-line>Preparedness Modeling Unit, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Preparedness Modeling Unit, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Grenfell, Bryan" sort="Grenfell, Bryan" uniqKey="Grenfell B" first="Bryan" last="Grenfell">Bryan Grenfell</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff7"><addr-line>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Meyers, Lauren Ancel" sort="Meyers, Lauren Ancel" uniqKey="Meyers L" first="Lauren Ancel" last="Meyers">Lauren Ancel Meyers</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8"><addr-line>Section of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Section of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff9"><addr-line>Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2010">2010</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>As Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods and Findings</title><p>Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chan, M" uniqKey="Chan M">M Chan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Greenberg, M" uniqKey="Greenberg M">M Greenberg</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lai, M" uniqKey="Lai M">M Lai</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hartel, G" uniqKey="Hartel G">G Hartel</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wichems, C" uniqKey="Wichems C">C Wichems</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gittleson, C" uniqKey="Gittleson C">C Gittleson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Garcia Garcia, L" uniqKey="Garcia Garcia L">L Garcia-Garcia</name></author><author><name sortKey="Valdespino Gomez, J" uniqKey="Valdespino Gomez J">J 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS One</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS ONE</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosone</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS ONE</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1932-6203</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name><publisher-loc>San Francisco, USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">20195468</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2829076</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">09-PONE-RA-13268R1</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0009360</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline"><subject>Mathematics</subject><subject>Infectious Diseases/Epidemiology and Control of Infectious Diseases</subject><subject>Public Health and Epidemiology/Immunization</subject><subject>Public Health and Epidemiology/Infectious Diseases</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">The Shifting Landscape of Flu</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bansal</surname><given-names>Shweta</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Pourbohloul</surname><given-names>Babak</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>4</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hupert</surname><given-names>Nathaniel</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>5</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6"><sup>6</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Grenfell</surname><given-names>Bryan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7"><sup>7</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Meyers</surname><given-names>Lauren Ancel</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8"><sup>8</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9"><sup>9</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><addr-line>Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><addr-line>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><addr-line>Division of Mathematical Modeling, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff4"><label>4</label><addr-line>School of Population and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff5"><label>5</label><addr-line>Department of Public Health, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff6"><label>6</label><addr-line>Preparedness Modeling Unit, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff7"><label>7</label><addr-line>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff8"><label>8</label><addr-line>Section of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff9"><label>9</label><addr-line>Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States of America</addr-line></aff><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Douglas</surname><given-names>Christopher L.</given-names></name><role>Editor</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="edit1">University of California, United States of America</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail: <email>shweta@sbansal.com</email></corresp><fn fn-type="con"><p>Conceived and designed the experiments: LAM. Analyzed the data: SB. Wrote the paper: SB. Performed modeling and simulation: SB. Edited the manuscript: BP NH BTG LAM.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2010</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>26</day><month>2</month><year>2010</year></pub-date><volume>5</volume><issue>2</issue><elocation-id>e9360</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>30</day><month>9</month><year>2009</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>21</day><month>1</month><year>2010</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Public Domain declaration which stipulates that, once placed in the public domain, this work may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2010</copyright-year><license xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/"><license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Public Domain declaration, which stipulates that, once placed in the public domain, this work may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose.</license-p></license></permissions><related-article id="d35e260" related-article-type="updated-article" xlink:href="2762811" ext-link-type="pmcid"></related-article><abstract><sec><title>Background</title><p>As Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods and Findings</title><p>Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.</p></sec></abstract><counts><page-count count="8"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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