Confined Animal Feeding Operations as Amplifiers of Influenza
Identifieur interne : 000806 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000805; suivant : 000807Confined Animal Feeding Operations as Amplifiers of Influenza
Auteurs : Roberto A. Saenz [Royaume-Uni] ; Herbert W. Hethcote [États-Unis] ; Gregory C. Gray [États-Unis]Source :
- Vector borne and zoonotic diseases (Larchmont, N.Y.) [ 1530-3667 ] ; 2006.
Abstract
Influenza pandemics occur when a novel influenza strain, often of animal origin, becomes transmissible between humans. Domestic animal species such as poultry or swine in confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) could serve as local amplifiers for such a new strain of influenza. A mathematical model is used to examine the transmission dynamics of a new influenza virus among three sequentially linked populations: the CAFO species, the CAFO workers (the bridging population), and the rest of the local human population. Using parameters based on swine data, simulations showed that when CAFO workers comprised 15-45% of the community, human influenza cases increased by 42-86%. Successful vaccination of at least 50% of CAFO workers cancelled the amplification. A human influenza epidemic due to a new virus could be locally amplified by the presence of confined animal feeding operations in the community. Thus vaccination of CAFO workers would be an effective use of a pandemic vaccine.
Url:
DOI: 10.1089/vbz.2006.6.338
PubMed: 17187567
PubMed Central: 2042988
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="P1">Influenza pandemics occur when a novel influenza strain, often of animal origin, becomes transmissible between humans. Domestic animal species such as poultry or swine in confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) could serve as local amplifiers for such a new strain of influenza. A mathematical model is used to examine the transmission dynamics of a new influenza virus among three sequentially linked populations: the CAFO species, the CAFO workers (the bridging population), and the rest of the local human population. Using parameters based on swine data, simulations showed that when CAFO workers comprised 15-45% of the community, human influenza cases increased by 42-86%. Successful vaccination of at least 50% of CAFO workers cancelled the amplification. A human influenza epidemic due to a new virus could be locally amplified by the presence of confined animal feeding operations in the community. Thus vaccination of CAFO workers would be an effective use of a pandemic vaccine.</p>
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<aff id="A1"><label>1</label>
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.</aff>
<aff id="A2"><label>2</label>
Department of Mathematics, College of Public Health, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa.</aff>
<aff id="A3"><label>3</label>
Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases, Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa.</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="CR1">Address reprint requests to: <italic>Dr. Roberto A. Saenz, Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, UK, E-mail:</italic>
<email>ras93@cam.ac.uk</email>
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<pub-date pub-type="nihms-submitted"><day>11</day>
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<volume>6</volume>
<issue>4</issue>
<fpage>338</fpage>
<lpage>346</lpage>
<abstract><p id="P1">Influenza pandemics occur when a novel influenza strain, often of animal origin, becomes transmissible between humans. Domestic animal species such as poultry or swine in confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) could serve as local amplifiers for such a new strain of influenza. A mathematical model is used to examine the transmission dynamics of a new influenza virus among three sequentially linked populations: the CAFO species, the CAFO workers (the bridging population), and the rest of the local human population. Using parameters based on swine data, simulations showed that when CAFO workers comprised 15-45% of the community, human influenza cases increased by 42-86%. Successful vaccination of at least 50% of CAFO workers cancelled the amplification. A human influenza epidemic due to a new virus could be locally amplified by the presence of confined animal feeding operations in the community. Thus vaccination of CAFO workers would be an effective use of a pandemic vaccine.</p>
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<kwd-group><kwd>Influenza in birds</kwd>
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