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School opening dates predict pandemic influenza A (H1N1) epidemics in the USA

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School opening dates predict pandemic influenza A (H1N1) epidemics in the USA

Auteurs : Dennis L. Chao [États-Unis] ; M. Elizabeth Halloran [États-Unis] ; Ira M. Longini [États-Unis]

Source :

The Journal of infectious diseases [ 0022-1899 ] ; 2010.

RBID : PMC:2939723

Abstract

The opening of schools in late summer of 2009 may have triggered the fall wave of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in the United States. We found that elevated percent of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI%) occurred an average of 14 days after schools opened in a state in the fall of 2009. The timing of these events was highly correlated (Spearman’s correlation coefficient=0.62, p < 1.0 × 10⁻⁵). This result provides evidence that transmission in schools catalyzes community-wide transmission. School opening dates can be useful for future pandemic planning, and influenza mitigation strategies should be targeted at school populations before the influenza season.

Url:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2939723

DOI: 10.1086/655810
PubMed: 20704486
PubMed Central: 2939723

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PMC:2939723

Le document en format XML

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 < 1.0 × 10<sup>−5</sup>
). This result provides evidence that transmission in schools catalyzes community-wide transmission. School opening dates can be useful for future pandemic planning, and influenza mitigation strategies should be targeted at school populations before the influenza season.</p>
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Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="CR1"><bold>Corresponding author:</bold>
 Dennis L. Chao., Center Stat. & Quant. Infect. Dis. (CSQUID), Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, M2-B167, Seattle, WA 98109-1024, USA, <email>dchao@fhcrc.org</email>
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<abstract><p id="P1">The opening of schools in late summer of 2009 may have triggered the fall wave of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in the United States. We found that elevated percent of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI%) occurred an average of 14 days after schools opened in a state in the fall of 2009. The timing of these events was highly correlated (Spearman’s correlation coefficient=0.62, <italic>p</italic>
 < 1.0 × 10<sup>−5</sup>
). This result provides evidence that transmission in schools catalyzes community-wide transmission. School opening dates can be useful for future pandemic planning, and influenza mitigation strategies should be targeted at school populations before the influenza season.</p>
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School opening dates predict pandemic influenza A (H1N1) epidemics in the USA

School opening dates predict pandemic influenza A (H1N1) epidemics in the USA

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Abstract

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