Links to Exploration step
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Comparison of methods to Estimate Basic Reproduction Number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
) of influenza, Using Canada 2009 and 2017-18 A (H1N1) Data</title>
<author><name sortKey="Nikbakht, Roya" sort="Nikbakht, Roya" uniqKey="Nikbakht R" first="Roya" last="Nikbakht">Roya Nikbakht</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health Kerman, Iran</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Baneshi, Mohammad Reza" sort="Baneshi, Mohammad Reza" uniqKey="Baneshi M" first="Mohammad Reza" last="Baneshi">Mohammad Reza Baneshi</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bahrampour, Abbas" sort="Bahrampour, Abbas" uniqKey="Bahrampour A" first="Abbas" last="Bahrampour">Abbas Bahrampour</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hosseinnataj, Abolfazl" sort="Hosseinnataj, Abolfazl" uniqKey="Hosseinnataj A" first="Abolfazl" last="Hosseinnataj">Abolfazl Hosseinnataj</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">31523253</idno>
<idno type="pmc">6670001</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6670001</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:6670001</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.4103/jrms.JRMS_888_18</idno>
<date when="2019">2019</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000A14</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000A14</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Comparison of methods to Estimate Basic Reproduction Number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
) of influenza, Using Canada 2009 and 2017-18 A (H1N1) Data</title>
<author><name sortKey="Nikbakht, Roya" sort="Nikbakht, Roya" uniqKey="Nikbakht R" first="Roya" last="Nikbakht">Roya Nikbakht</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health Kerman, Iran</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Baneshi, Mohammad Reza" sort="Baneshi, Mohammad Reza" uniqKey="Baneshi M" first="Mohammad Reza" last="Baneshi">Mohammad Reza Baneshi</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bahrampour, Abbas" sort="Bahrampour, Abbas" uniqKey="Bahrampour A" first="Abbas" last="Bahrampour">Abbas Bahrampour</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hosseinnataj, Abolfazl" sort="Hosseinnataj, Abolfazl" uniqKey="Hosseinnataj A" first="Abolfazl" last="Hosseinnataj">Abolfazl Hosseinnataj</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Journal of Research in Medical Sciences : The Official Journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1735-1995</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1735-7136</idno>
<imprint><date when="2019">2019</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec id="st1"><title>Background:</title>
<p>The basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
) has a key role in epidemics and can be utilized for preventing epidemics. In this study, different methods are used for estimating <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
's and their vaccination coverage to find the formula with the best performance.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st2"><title>Materials and Methods:</title>
<p>We estimated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for cumulative cases count data from April 18 to July 6, 2009 and 35-2017 to 34-2018 weeks in Canada: maximum likelihood (ML), exponential growth rate (EG), time-dependent reproduction numbers (TD), attack rate (AR), gamma-distributed generation time (GT), and the final size of the epidemic. Gamma distribution with mean and standard deviation 3.6 ± 1.4 is used as GT.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st3"><title>Results:</title>
<p>The AR method obtained a <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0 (</sub>
95% confidence interval [CI]) value of 1.116 (1.1163, 1.1165) and an EG (95%CI) value of 1.46 (1.41, 1.52). The <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95%CI) estimate was 1.42 (1.27, 1.57) for the obtained ML, 1.71 (1.12, 2.03) for the obtained TD, 1.49 (1.0, 1.97) for the gamma-distributed GT, and 1.00 (0.91, 1.09) for the final size of the epidemic. The minimum and maximum vaccination coverage were related to AR and TD methods, respectively, where the TD method has minimum mean squared error (MSE). Finally, the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95%CI) for 2018 data was 1.52 (1.11, 1.94) by TD method, and vaccination coverage was estimated as 34.2%.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st4"><title>Conclusion:</title>
<p>For the purposes of our study, the estimation of TD was the most useful tool for computing the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
, because it has the minimum MSE. The estimation <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
> 1 indicating that the epidemic has occurred. Thus, it is required to vaccinate at least 41.5% to prevent and control the next epidemic.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
<back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kilbourne, Ed" uniqKey="Kilbourne E">ED Kilbourne</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Askarian, M" uniqKey="Askarian M">M Askarian</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Danaei, M" uniqKey="Danaei M">M Danaei</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Vakili, V" uniqKey="Vakili V">V Vakili</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Al Hajjar, S" uniqKey="Al Hajjar S">S Al Hajjar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mcintosh, K" uniqKey="Mcintosh K">K McIntosh</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Rahimirad, S" uniqKey="Rahimirad S">S RahimiRad</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alizadeh, A" uniqKey="Alizadeh A">A Alizadeh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alizadeh, E" uniqKey="Alizadeh E">E Alizadeh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hosseini, Sm" uniqKey="Hosseini S">SM Hosseini</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mubareka, S" uniqKey="Mubareka S">S Mubareka</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lowen, Ac" uniqKey="Lowen A">AC Lowen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Steel, J" uniqKey="Steel J">J Steel</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Coates, Al" uniqKey="Coates A">AL Coates</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Garcia Sastre, A" uniqKey="Garcia Sastre A">A García-Sastre</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Palese, P" uniqKey="Palese P">P Palese</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bridges, Cb" uniqKey="Bridges C">CB Bridges</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Harper, Sa" uniqKey="Harper S">SA Harper</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fukuda, K" uniqKey="Fukuda K">K Fukuda</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Uyeki, Tm" uniqKey="Uyeki T">TM Uyeki</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cox, Nj" uniqKey="Cox N">NJ Cox</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Singleton, Ja" uniqKey="Singleton J">JA Singleton</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Plans Rubi, P" uniqKey="Plans Rubi P">P Plans-Rubió</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alonso, Wj" uniqKey="Alonso W">WJ Alonso</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Saunders Hastings, Pr" uniqKey="Saunders Hastings P">PR Saunders-Hastings</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Krewski, D" uniqKey="Krewski D">D Krewski</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Shrestha, Ss" uniqKey="Shrestha S">SS Shrestha</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Swerdlow, Dl" uniqKey="Swerdlow D">DL Swerdlow</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Borse, Rh" uniqKey="Borse R">RH Borse</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Prabhu, Vs" uniqKey="Prabhu V">VS Prabhu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Finelli, L" uniqKey="Finelli L">L Finelli</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Atkins, Cy" uniqKey="Atkins C">CY Atkins</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wu, Km" uniqKey="Wu K">KM Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Becker, Ng" uniqKey="Becker N">NG Becker</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bahrampour, A" uniqKey="Bahrampour A">A Bahrampour</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Woolhouse, Me" uniqKey="Woolhouse M">ME Woolhouse</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hasibeder, G" uniqKey="Hasibeder G">G Hasibeder</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chandiwana, Sk" uniqKey="Chandiwana S">SK Chandiwana</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Yh" uniqKey="Hsieh Y">YH Hsieh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fisman, Dn" uniqKey="Fisman D">DN Fisman</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J Wu</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Svensson, A" uniqKey="Svensson A">A Svensson</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Dietz, K" uniqKey="Dietz K">K Dietz</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M Lipsitch</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Arruda, Ag" uniqKey="Arruda A">AG Arruda</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alkhamis, Ma" uniqKey="Alkhamis M">MA Alkhamis</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Vanderwaal, K" uniqKey="Vanderwaal K">K VanderWaal</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Morrison, Rb" uniqKey="Morrison R">RB Morrison</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Perez, Am" uniqKey="Perez A">AM Perez</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Roberts, Mg" uniqKey="Roberts M">MG Roberts</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Jackson, C" uniqKey="Jackson C">C Jackson</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Vynnycky, E" uniqKey="Vynnycky E">E Vynnycky</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mangtani, P" uniqKey="Mangtani P">P Mangtani</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Haghdoost, A" uniqKey="Haghdoost A">A Haghdoost</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Baneshi, Mr" uniqKey="Baneshi M">MR Baneshi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zolala, F" uniqKey="Zolala F">F Zolala</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Farvahari, S" uniqKey="Farvahari S">S Farvahari</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Safizadeh, H" uniqKey="Safizadeh H">H Safizadeh</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="White, Lf" uniqKey="White L">LF White</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Pagano, M" uniqKey="Pagano M">M Pagano</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mcbryde, E" uniqKey="Mcbryde E">E McBryde</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bergeri, I" uniqKey="Bergeri I">I Bergeri</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Van Gemert, C" uniqKey="Van Gemert C">C van Gemert</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Rotty, J" uniqKey="Rotty J">J Rotty</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Headley, E" uniqKey="Headley E">E Headley</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Simpson, K" uniqKey="Simpson K">K Simpson</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="White, Lf" uniqKey="White L">LF White</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Finelli, L" uniqKey="Finelli L">L Finelli</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Reed, C" uniqKey="Reed C">C Reed</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M Lipsitch</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bettencourt, Lm" uniqKey="Bettencourt L">LM Bettencourt</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lessler, J" uniqKey="Lessler J">J Lessler</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cummings, Da" uniqKey="Cummings D">DA Cummings</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fishman, S" uniqKey="Fishman S">S Fishman</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Vora, A" uniqKey="Vora A">A Vora</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Burke, Ds" uniqKey="Burke D">DS Burke</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Obadia, T" uniqKey="Obadia T">T Obadia</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Haneef, R" uniqKey="Haneef R">R Haneef</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Boelle, Py" uniqKey="Boelle P">PY Boëlle</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ajelli, M" uniqKey="Ajelli M">M Ajelli</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Merler, S" uniqKey="Merler S">S Merler</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ajelli, M" uniqKey="Ajelli M">M Ajelli</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Poletti, P" uniqKey="Poletti P">P Poletti</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Melegaro, A" uniqKey="Melegaro A">A Melegaro</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Merler, S" uniqKey="Merler S">S Merler</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Andreasen, V" uniqKey="Andreasen V">V Andreasen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Barakat, A" uniqKey="Barakat A">A Barakat</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ihazmad, H" uniqKey="Ihazmad H">H Ihazmad</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="El Falaki, F" uniqKey="El Falaki F">F El Falaki</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tempia, S" uniqKey="Tempia S">S Tempia</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cherkaoui, I" uniqKey="Cherkaoui I">I Cherkaoui</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="El Aouad, R" uniqKey="El Aouad R">R El Aouad</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Buckley, D" uniqKey="Buckley D">D Buckley</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bulger, D" uniqKey="Bulger D">D Bulger</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Caley, P" uniqKey="Caley P">P Caley</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Philp, Dj" uniqKey="Philp D">DJ Philp</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mccracken, K" uniqKey="Mccracken K">K McCracken</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bhattarai, A" uniqKey="Bhattarai A">A Bhattarai</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Marchbanks, Tl" uniqKey="Marchbanks T">TL Marchbanks</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fagan, Rp" uniqKey="Fagan R">RP Fagan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ostroff, S" uniqKey="Ostroff S">S Ostroff</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chen, Sc" uniqKey="Chen S">SC Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liao, Cm" uniqKey="Liao C">CM Liao</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chen, Sc" uniqKey="Chen S">SC Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liao, Cm" uniqKey="Liao C">CM Liao</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chen, Sc" uniqKey="Chen S">SC Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chio, Cp" uniqKey="Chio C">CP Chio</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jou, Lj" uniqKey="Jou L">LJ Jou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liao, Cm" uniqKey="Liao C">CM Liao</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chen, Sc" uniqKey="Chen S">SC Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Nh" uniqKey="Hsieh N">NH Hsieh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="You, Sh" uniqKey="You S">SH You</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, Ch" uniqKey="Wang C">CH Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liao, Cm" uniqKey="Liao C">CM Liao</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chen, Tm" uniqKey="Chen T">TM Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chen, Qp" uniqKey="Chen Q">QP Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, Rc" uniqKey="Liu R">RC Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Szot, A" uniqKey="Szot A">A Szot</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chen, Sl" uniqKey="Chen S">SL Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhao, J" uniqKey="Zhao J">J Zhao</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chen, T" uniqKey="Chen T">T Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chen, T" uniqKey="Chen T">T Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, R" uniqKey="Liu R">R Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Xu, C" uniqKey="Xu C">C Xu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, D" uniqKey="Wang D">D Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chen, F" uniqKey="Chen F">F Chen</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cheng, Yh" uniqKey="Cheng Y">YH Cheng</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liao, Cm" uniqKey="Liao C">CM Liao</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cheng, Yh" uniqKey="Cheng Y">YH Cheng</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, Ch" uniqKey="Wang C">CH Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="You, Sh" uniqKey="You S">SH You</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Nh" uniqKey="Hsieh N">NH Hsieh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chen, Wy" uniqKey="Chen W">WY Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chio, Cp" uniqKey="Chio C">CP Chio</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chong, Kc" uniqKey="Chong K">KC Chong</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, X" uniqKey="Wang X">X Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, S" uniqKey="Liu S">S Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cai, J" uniqKey="Cai J">J Cai</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Su, X" uniqKey="Su X">X Su</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zee, Bc" uniqKey="Zee B">BC Zee</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chong, Kc" uniqKey="Chong K">KC Chong</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zee, Bc" uniqKey="Zee B">BC Zee</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, Mh" uniqKey="Wang M">MH Wang</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ammon, Ce" uniqKey="Ammon C">CE Ammon</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hengartner, Nw" uniqKey="Hengartner N">NW Hengartner</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hyman, Jm" uniqKey="Hyman J">JM Hyman</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bettencourt, Lm" uniqKey="Bettencourt L">LM Bettencourt</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Johnson, N" uniqKey="Johnson N">N Johnson</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alonso, Wj" uniqKey="Alonso W">WJ Alonso</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Diaz Due As, P" uniqKey="Diaz Due As P">P Diaz-Dueñas</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Miller, Jc" uniqKey="Miller J">JC Miller</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alcazar Velazco, A" uniqKey="Alcazar Velazco A">A Alcazar-Velazco</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hyman, Jm" uniqKey="Hyman J">JM Hyman</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fenimore, Pw" uniqKey="Fenimore P">PW Fenimore</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bettencourt, Lm" uniqKey="Bettencourt L">LM Bettencourt</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Towers, S" uniqKey="Towers S">S Towers</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Miller, Ma" uniqKey="Miller M">MA Miller</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Towers, S" uniqKey="Towers S">S Towers</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fuentes, R" uniqKey="Fuentes R">R Fuentes</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Sotomayor, V" uniqKey="Sotomayor V">V Sotomayor</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Munayco, Cv" uniqKey="Munayco C">CV Munayco</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="G Mez, J" uniqKey="G Mez J">J Gómez</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Miller, Ma" uniqKey="Miller M">MA Miller</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Miller, M" uniqKey="Miller M">M Miller</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alonso, Wj" uniqKey="Alonso W">WJ Alonso</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cowling, Bj" uniqKey="Cowling B">BJ Cowling</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lau, Ms" uniqKey="Lau M">MS Lau</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ho, Lm" uniqKey="Ho L">LM Ho</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chuang, Sk" uniqKey="Chuang S">SK Chuang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tsang, T" uniqKey="Tsang T">T Tsang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, Sh" uniqKey="Liu S">SH Liu</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Dorigatti, I" uniqKey="Dorigatti I">I Dorigatti</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Pugliese, A" uniqKey="Pugliese A">A Pugliese</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Earn, Dj" uniqKey="Earn D">DJ Earn</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Andrews, Pw" uniqKey="Andrews P">PW Andrews</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bolker, Bm" uniqKey="Bolker B">BM Bolker</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ejima, K" uniqKey="Ejima K">K Ejima</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Aihara, K" uniqKey="Aihara K">K Aihara</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fielding, Je" uniqKey="Fielding J">JE Fielding</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kelly, Ha" uniqKey="Kelly H">HA Kelly</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Glass, K" uniqKey="Glass K">K Glass</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fierro, A" uniqKey="Fierro A">A Fierro</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liccardo, A" uniqKey="Liccardo A">A Liccardo</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cummings, Da" uniqKey="Cummings D">DA Cummings</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Klinkenberg, D" uniqKey="Klinkenberg D">D Klinkenberg</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Burke, Ds" uniqKey="Burke D">DS Burke</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Furuya, H" uniqKey="Furuya H">H Furuya</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Glass, K" uniqKey="Glass K">K Glass</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mercer, Gn" uniqKey="Mercer G">GN Mercer</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mcbryde, Es" uniqKey="Mcbryde E">ES McBryde</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Becker, Ng" uniqKey="Becker N">NG Becker</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gran, Jm" uniqKey="Gran J">JM Gran</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Iversen, B" uniqKey="Iversen B">B Iversen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hungnes, O" uniqKey="Hungnes O">O Hungnes</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Aalen, Oo" uniqKey="Aalen O">OO Aalen</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gurav, Yk" uniqKey="Gurav Y">YK Gurav</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chadha, Ms" uniqKey="Chadha M">MS Chadha</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tandale, Bv" uniqKey="Tandale B">BV Tandale</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Potdar, Va" uniqKey="Potdar V">VA Potdar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Pawar, Sd" uniqKey="Pawar S">SD Pawar</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Shil, P" uniqKey="Shil P">P Shil</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Haghdoost, A" uniqKey="Haghdoost A">A Haghdoost</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Baneshi, Mr" uniqKey="Baneshi M">MR Baneshi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zolala, F" uniqKey="Zolala F">F Zolala</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Farvahari, S" uniqKey="Farvahari S">S Farvahari</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Safizadeh, H" uniqKey="Safizadeh H">H Safizadeh</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hens, N" uniqKey="Hens N">N Hens</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Calatayud, L" uniqKey="Calatayud L">L Calatayud</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kurkela, S" uniqKey="Kurkela S">S Kurkela</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tamme, T" uniqKey="Tamme T">T Tamme</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hens, N" uniqKey="Hens N">N Hens</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Van Ranst, M" uniqKey="Van Ranst M">M Van Ranst</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Aerts, M" uniqKey="Aerts M">M Aerts</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Robesyn, E" uniqKey="Robesyn E">E Robesyn</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Van Damme, P" uniqKey="Van Damme P">P Van Damme</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Beutels, P" uniqKey="Beutels P">P Beutels</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Yh" uniqKey="Hsieh Y">YH Hsieh</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Yh" uniqKey="Hsieh Y">YH Hsieh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cheng, Kf" uniqKey="Cheng K">KF Cheng</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, Tn" uniqKey="Wu T">TN Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Li, Tc" uniqKey="Li T">TC Li</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chen, Cy" uniqKey="Chen C">CY Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chen, Jh" uniqKey="Chen J">JH Chen</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Yh" uniqKey="Hsieh Y">YH Hsieh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fisman, Dn" uniqKey="Fisman D">DN Fisman</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J Wu</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Yh" uniqKey="Hsieh Y">YH Hsieh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Huang, Hm" uniqKey="Huang H">HM Huang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lan, Yc" uniqKey="Lan Y">YC Lan</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Yh" uniqKey="Hsieh Y">YH Hsieh</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ma, S" uniqKey="Ma S">S Ma</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Velasco Hernandez, Jx" uniqKey="Velasco Hernandez J">JX Velasco Hernandez</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lee, Vj" uniqKey="Lee V">VJ Lee</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lim, Wy" uniqKey="Lim W">WY Lim</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Yh" uniqKey="Hsieh Y">YH Hsieh</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Inaba, H" uniqKey="Inaba H">H Inaba</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Jackson, C" uniqKey="Jackson C">C Jackson</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Vynnycky, E" uniqKey="Vynnycky E">E Vynnycky</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mangtani, P" uniqKey="Mangtani P">P Mangtani</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kadi, As" uniqKey="Kadi A">AS Kadi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Avaradi, Sr" uniqKey="Avaradi S">SR Avaradi</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kelly, Ha" uniqKey="Kelly H">HA Kelly</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mercer, Gn" uniqKey="Mercer G">GN Mercer</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fielding, Je" uniqKey="Fielding J">JE Fielding</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dowse, Gk" uniqKey="Dowse G">GK Dowse</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Glass, K" uniqKey="Glass K">K Glass</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Carcione, D" uniqKey="Carcione D">D Carcione</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kelso, Jk" uniqKey="Kelso J">JK Kelso</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Halder, N" uniqKey="Halder N">N Halder</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Postma, Mj" uniqKey="Postma M">MJ Postma</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Milne, Gj" uniqKey="Milne G">GJ Milne</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kim, K" uniqKey="Kim K">K Kim</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Omori, R" uniqKey="Omori R">R Omori</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ito, K" uniqKey="Ito K">K Ito</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kucharski, Aj" uniqKey="Kucharski A">AJ Kucharski</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Edmunds, Wj" uniqKey="Edmunds W">WJ Edmunds</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lin, Cj" uniqKey="Lin C">CJ Lin</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Deger, Ka" uniqKey="Deger K">KA Deger</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tien, Jh" uniqKey="Tien J">JH Tien</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Liu, R" uniqKey="Liu R">R Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leung, Rk" uniqKey="Leung R">RK Leung</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chen, T" uniqKey="Chen T">T Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhang, X" uniqKey="Zhang X">X Zhang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chen, F" uniqKey="Chen F">F Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chen, S" uniqKey="Chen S">S Chen</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Liu, W" uniqKey="Liu W">W Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tang, S" uniqKey="Tang S">S Tang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Xiao, Y" uniqKey="Xiao Y">Y Xiao</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Marquetoux, N" uniqKey="Marquetoux N">N Marquetoux</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Paul, M" uniqKey="Paul M">M Paul</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wongnarkpet, S" uniqKey="Wongnarkpet S">S Wongnarkpet</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Poolkhet, C" uniqKey="Poolkhet C">C Poolkhet</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Thanapongtharm, W" uniqKey="Thanapongtharm W">W Thanapongtharm</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Roger, F" uniqKey="Roger F">F Roger</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Massad, E" uniqKey="Massad E">E Massad</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Burattini, Mn" uniqKey="Burattini M">MN Burattini</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Coutinho, Fa" uniqKey="Coutinho F">FA Coutinho</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lopez, Lf" uniqKey="Lopez L">LF Lopez</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mathews, Jd" uniqKey="Mathews J">JD Mathews</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mcbryde, Es" uniqKey="Mcbryde E">ES McBryde</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mcvernon, J" uniqKey="Mcvernon J">J McVernon</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Pallaghy, Pk" uniqKey="Pallaghy P">PK Pallaghy</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mccaw, Jm" uniqKey="Mccaw J">JM McCaw</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Meeyai, A" uniqKey="Meeyai A">A Meeyai</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cooper, B" uniqKey="Cooper B">B Cooper</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Coker, R" uniqKey="Coker R">R Coker</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Pan Ngum, W" uniqKey="Pan Ngum W">W Pan-Ngum</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Akarasewi, P" uniqKey="Akarasewi P">P Akarasewi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Iamsirithaworn, S" uniqKey="Iamsirithaworn S">S Iamsirithaworn</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Modchang, C" uniqKey="Modchang C">C Modchang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Iamsirithaworn, S" uniqKey="Iamsirithaworn S">S Iamsirithaworn</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Auewarakul, P" uniqKey="Auewarakul P">P Auewarakul</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Triampo" uniqKey="Triampo">Triampo</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mostaco Guidolin, Lc" uniqKey="Mostaco Guidolin L">LC Mostaço-Guidolin</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bowman, Cs" uniqKey="Bowman C">CS Bowman</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Greer, Al" uniqKey="Greer A">AL Greer</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fisman, Dn" uniqKey="Fisman D">DN Fisman</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Moghadas, Sm" uniqKey="Moghadas S">SM Moghadas</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Safan, M" uniqKey="Safan M">M Safan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Castillo Chavez, C" uniqKey="Castillo Chavez C">C Castillo-Chavez</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mizumoto, K" uniqKey="Mizumoto K">K Mizumoto</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ejima, K" uniqKey="Ejima K">K Ejima</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nyirenda, M" uniqKey="Nyirenda M">M Nyirenda</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Omori, R" uniqKey="Omori R">R Omori</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tessmer, Hl" uniqKey="Tessmer H">HL Tessmer</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Arimura, H" uniqKey="Arimura H">H Arimura</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ito, K" uniqKey="Ito K">K Ito</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Obadia, T" uniqKey="Obadia T">T Obadia</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Haneef, R" uniqKey="Haneef R">R Haneef</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Boelle, Py" uniqKey="Boelle P">PY Boëlle</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Pamaran, Rr" uniqKey="Pamaran R">RR Pamaran</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kamigaki, T" uniqKey="Kamigaki T">T Kamigaki</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hewe, Tt" uniqKey="Hewe T">TT Hewe</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Flores, Km" uniqKey="Flores K">KM Flores</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mercado, Es" uniqKey="Mercado E">ES Mercado</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alday, Pp" uniqKey="Alday P">PP Alday</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Rizzo, C" uniqKey="Rizzo C">C Rizzo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ajelli, M" uniqKey="Ajelli M">M Ajelli</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Merler, S" uniqKey="Merler S">S Merler</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Pugliese, A" uniqKey="Pugliese A">A Pugliese</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Barbetta, I" uniqKey="Barbetta I">I Barbetta</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Salmaso, S" uniqKey="Salmaso S">S Salmaso</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Roberts, Mg" uniqKey="Roberts M">MG Roberts</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Roll, U" uniqKey="Roll U">U Roll</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yaari, R" uniqKey="Yaari R">R Yaari</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Katriel, G" uniqKey="Katriel G">G Katriel</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Barnea, O" uniqKey="Barnea O">O Barnea</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Stone, L" uniqKey="Stone L">L Stone</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mendelson, E" uniqKey="Mendelson E">E Mendelson</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Sattenspiel, L" uniqKey="Sattenspiel L">L Sattenspiel</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Sertsou, G" uniqKey="Sertsou G">G Sertsou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wilson, N" uniqKey="Wilson N">N Wilson</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Baker, M" uniqKey="Baker M">M Baker</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nelson, P" uniqKey="Nelson P">P Nelson</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Roberts, Mg" uniqKey="Roberts M">MG Roberts</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ali, St" uniqKey="Ali S">ST Ali</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kadi, As" uniqKey="Kadi A">AS Kadi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Shil, P" uniqKey="Shil P">P Shil</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gurav, Yk" uniqKey="Gurav Y">YK Gurav</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chadha, Ms" uniqKey="Chadha M">MS Chadha</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mishra, A" uniqKey="Mishra A">A Mishra</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tan, X" uniqKey="Tan X">X Tan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yuan, L" uniqKey="Yuan L">L Yuan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhou, J" uniqKey="Zhou J">J Zhou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zheng, Y" uniqKey="Zheng Y">Y Zheng</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, F" uniqKey="Yang F">F Yang</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tang, S" uniqKey="Tang S">S Tang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Xiao, Y" uniqKey="Xiao Y">Y Xiao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y Yang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhou, Y" uniqKey="Zhou Y">Y Zhou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ma, Z" uniqKey="Ma Z">Z Ma</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tang, S" uniqKey="Tang S">S Tang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Xiao, Y" uniqKey="Xiao Y">Y Xiao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yuan, L" uniqKey="Yuan L">L Yuan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cheke, Ra" uniqKey="Cheke R">RA Cheke</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J Wu</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Truscott, J" uniqKey="Truscott J">J Truscott</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hinsley, W" uniqKey="Hinsley W">W Hinsley</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Donnelly, C" uniqKey="Donnelly C">C Donnelly</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ghani, A" uniqKey="Ghani A">A Ghani</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tsukui, S" uniqKey="Tsukui S">S Tsukui</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Van Kerckhove, K" uniqKey="Van Kerckhove K">K Van Kerckhove</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hens, N" uniqKey="Hens N">N Hens</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Edmunds, Wj" uniqKey="Edmunds W">WJ Edmunds</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Eames, Kt" uniqKey="Eames K">KT Eames</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ward, Mp" uniqKey="Ward M">MP Ward</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Maftei, D" uniqKey="Maftei D">D Maftei</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Apostu, C" uniqKey="Apostu C">C Apostu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Suru, A" uniqKey="Suru A">A Suru</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="White, Lf" uniqKey="White L">LF White</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Finelli, L" uniqKey="Finelli L">L Finelli</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Reed, C" uniqKey="Reed C">C Reed</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M Lipsitch</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Xiao, Y" uniqKey="Xiao Y">Y Xiao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Sun, X" uniqKey="Sun X">X Sun</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tang, S" uniqKey="Tang S">S Tang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J Wu</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y Yang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhang, Y" uniqKey="Zhang Y">Y Zhang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fang, L" uniqKey="Fang L">L Fang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Halloran, Me" uniqKey="Halloran M">ME Halloran</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ma, M" uniqKey="Ma M">M Ma</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liang, S" uniqKey="Liang S">S Liang</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yu, H" uniqKey="Yu H">H Yu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Ca" uniqKey="Donnelly C">CA Donnelly</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhou, L" uniqKey="Zhou L">L Zhou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Feng, L" uniqKey="Feng L">L Feng</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Xiang, N" uniqKey="Xiang N">N Xiang</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhang, S" uniqKey="Zhang S">S Zhang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yan, P" uniqKey="Yan P">P Yan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Winchester, B" uniqKey="Winchester B">B Winchester</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, J" uniqKey="Wang J">J Wang</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
</listBibl>
</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">J Res Med Sci</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">J Res Med Sci</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JRMS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of Research in Medical Sciences : The Official Journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="ppub">1735-1995</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1735-7136</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Wolters Kluwer - Medknow</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>India</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">31523253</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">6670001</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">JRMS-24-67</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.4103/jrms.JRMS_888_18</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Original Article</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group><article-title>Comparison of methods to Estimate Basic Reproduction Number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
) of influenza, Using Canada 2009 and 2017-18 A (H1N1) Data</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Nikbakht</surname>
<given-names>Roya</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Baneshi</surname>
<given-names>Mohammad Reza</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bahrampour</surname>
<given-names>Abbas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"></xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hosseinnataj</surname>
<given-names>Abolfazl</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">2</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="aff1"><label>1</label>
HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health Kerman, Iran</aff>
<aff id="aff2"><label>2</label>
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran</aff>
<author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><bold>Address for correspondence:</bold>
Prof. Abbas Bahrampour, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran. E-mail: <email xlink:href="abahrampour@yahoo.com">abahrampour@yahoo.com</email>
</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>24</day>
<month>7</month>
<year>2019</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>24</volume>
<elocation-id>67</elocation-id>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>18</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2018</year>
</date>
<date date-type="rev-recd"><day>13</day>
<month>3</month>
<year>2019</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted"><day>17</day>
<month>5</month>
<year>2019</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2019 Journal of Research in Medical Sciences</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2019</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0"><license-p>This is an open access journal, and articles are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License, which allows others to remix, tweak, and build upon the work non-commercially, as long as appropriate credit is given and the new creations are licensed under the identical terms.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract><sec id="st1"><title>Background:</title>
<p>The basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
) has a key role in epidemics and can be utilized for preventing epidemics. In this study, different methods are used for estimating <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
's and their vaccination coverage to find the formula with the best performance.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st2"><title>Materials and Methods:</title>
<p>We estimated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for cumulative cases count data from April 18 to July 6, 2009 and 35-2017 to 34-2018 weeks in Canada: maximum likelihood (ML), exponential growth rate (EG), time-dependent reproduction numbers (TD), attack rate (AR), gamma-distributed generation time (GT), and the final size of the epidemic. Gamma distribution with mean and standard deviation 3.6 ± 1.4 is used as GT.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st3"><title>Results:</title>
<p>The AR method obtained a <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0 (</sub>
95% confidence interval [CI]) value of 1.116 (1.1163, 1.1165) and an EG (95%CI) value of 1.46 (1.41, 1.52). The <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95%CI) estimate was 1.42 (1.27, 1.57) for the obtained ML, 1.71 (1.12, 2.03) for the obtained TD, 1.49 (1.0, 1.97) for the gamma-distributed GT, and 1.00 (0.91, 1.09) for the final size of the epidemic. The minimum and maximum vaccination coverage were related to AR and TD methods, respectively, where the TD method has minimum mean squared error (MSE). Finally, the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95%CI) for 2018 data was 1.52 (1.11, 1.94) by TD method, and vaccination coverage was estimated as 34.2%.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st4"><title>Conclusion:</title>
<p>For the purposes of our study, the estimation of TD was the most useful tool for computing the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
, because it has the minimum MSE. The estimation <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
> 1 indicating that the epidemic has occurred. Thus, it is required to vaccinate at least 41.5% to prevent and control the next epidemic.</p>
</sec>
</abstract>
<kwd-group><kwd>Basic reproduction number</kwd>
<kwd>influenza A virus</kwd>
<kwd>vaccination coverage</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body><sec sec-type="intro" id="sec1-1"><title>INTRODUCTION</title>
<p>Pandemic influenza, a global outbreak, defines as spreading influenza virus between peoples (with little or lack of immunity) over a wide geographic field.[<xref rid="ref1" ref-type="bibr">1</xref>
] In the 20<sup>th</sup>
century, three pandemics of influenza happened which were “Spanish flu,” “Asian flu,” and “Hong Kong flu” in the years “1918–1919,” “1957–1958,” and “1968–1969,” respectively.[<xref rid="ref2" ref-type="bibr">2</xref>
] In early 2009, H1N1 influenza at first occurred in Mexico and the United States and speared rapidly worldwide (>200 countries involved).[<xref rid="ref3" ref-type="bibr">3</xref>
<xref rid="ref4" ref-type="bibr">4</xref>
] The influenza virus can spread among people by direct contact (a cough, sneeze or talk), inhalation of virus-laden aerosols, and touch fomites (contaminated objects) that has the flu virus.[<xref rid="ref5" ref-type="bibr">5</xref>
<xref rid="ref6" ref-type="bibr">6</xref>
] The most affected groups for developing flu-related complications are children, pregnant women, elders (adults older than 64-year-old), and persons with a specific disease (chronic pulmonary disease, chronic heart disease, diabetes, etc.,).[<xref rid="ref7" ref-type="bibr">7</xref>
<xref rid="ref8" ref-type="bibr">8</xref>
] The mortality and morbidity related to the annual influenza in the worldwide estimated approximately one million people, a considerable number.[<xref rid="ref9" ref-type="bibr">9</xref>
] For example, the number of deaths for “United States flu (2009)” reported 12,469 and for “Asian flu” was 1–4 million.[<xref rid="ref10" ref-type="bibr">10</xref>
<xref rid="ref11" ref-type="bibr">11</xref>
] Therefore, controlling and preventing the epidemic of influenza is an important issue. The basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
) is an important metric that used for measuring the vaccination coverage (to prevent epidemic), eradicating an infectious disease, controlling and immunizing the disease which is defined the mean number of secondary infections generated by a single infectious individual in a fully susceptible population without immunity and interventions.[<xref rid="ref12" ref-type="bibr">12</xref>
] In particular, the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
determines whether an infection spreads through a population.[<xref rid="ref13" ref-type="bibr">13</xref>
] The basic reproduction number or threshold parameter applied for determining the critical immunity coverage can be a real number greater than, less than, or equal to one. The disease will fade out when <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
< 1 and an epidemic will occur (the infection will grow) if <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
≥ 1, showing an endemic in the population.[<xref rid="ref13" ref-type="bibr">13</xref>
<xref rid="ref14" ref-type="bibr">14</xref>
]</p>
<p>Since the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
has a key role in measuring the transmission of diseases and is crucial in preventing epidemics, thus it is important to know which methods and formulas to apply to estimate <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
and have better performance. We estimate the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
and its related vaccination coverage for Canadian influenza data during 2009 and 2017–2018.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="materials|methods" id="sec1-2"><title>MATERIALS AND METHODS</title>
<sec id="sec2-1"><title>Objectives</title>
<p>In this study, we reviewed the investigated methods and formulas used for estimating the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
of influenza in various published research papers from 1954 to 2017. After a scientific systematic review on <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
, we found out that there are many basic reproduction formula which are applied for determining the vaccination coverage so it is necessary to characterize a formula which gives more accurate result to use in vaccination strategies which leads to optimize the costs. We extracted more commonly-utilized formulas [<xref rid="T5" ref-type="table">Appendix Table 1</xref>
]. We considered six common formulas and applied them to real data to determine which formula most closely approximates the real epidemic threshold parameter with high efficacy.</p>
<p>Then, <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
s and related vaccination coverage of these methods was estimated for a secondary real data of Canadian influenza (2009). The calculated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
was compared with <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
of the Canadian paper[<xref rid="ref15" ref-type="bibr">15</xref>
] and also simulations were performed. Finally, the best method was chosen based on mean squared error (MSE), then <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
calculated by selected method for the H1N1 Canadian data in the 35<sup>th</sup>
week in 2017–34<sup>th</sup>
week in 2018.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec2-2"><title>Data</title>
<p>In Canada, circulating of influenza A virus is very common. The data sets in this study were obtained from the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) website[<xref rid="ref16" ref-type="bibr">16</xref>
] and the last FluWatch weekly report of the 2017–2018 influenza surveillance season achieved from the Respiratory Virus Detections in Canada Report website.[<xref rid="ref17" ref-type="bibr">17</xref>
]</p>
<p>The total number of patients was 927 during the 2009 influenza season which were based on month/day and the number of new cases was 1280 for Canada 2017–2018 H1N1 data which report every Thursday in Canada. We fitted all the six models to Canadian 2009 pH 1N1 cumulative cases data.[<xref rid="ref16" ref-type="bibr">16</xref>
] Then, the best model was applied to the data of Canada (34<sup>th</sup>
week in 2017 to 34<sup>th</sup>
week in 2018).[<xref rid="ref17" ref-type="bibr">17</xref>
]</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec2-3"><title>Statistical analysis</title>
<p>The models used in this article included the Richard model, attack rate (AR), exponential growth rate (EG), maximum likelihood (ML), time-dependent reproduction numbers (TD), gamma-distributed generation time (GT), and <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
using the final size of the epidemic. The above mentioned methods were applied for estimating <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
using R software (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
package and programming). R software was created by Ross Ihaka and Robert Gentleman at the University of Auckland, New Zealand, and is currently developed by the R Development Core Team (of which Chambers is a member).</p>
<sec id="sec3-1"><title>Generation time</title>
<p>The time-gap between infection of a primary case and infection of a secondary case that is generated by the primary case.[<xref rid="ref18" ref-type="bibr">18</xref>
]</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec3-2"><title>The attack rate</title>
<p>The <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
can be described by the AR with the following formula:</p>
<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g001.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</p>
<p>where AR defines the ratio of the people generating an infection disease and <italic>S</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
show the initial susceptible ratio.[<xref rid="ref19" ref-type="bibr">19</xref>
]</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec3-3"><title>The exponential growth rate</title>
<p>The following formula was applied for computing the R:</p>
<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g002.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</p>
<p>In this formula, <italic>M</italic>
is the moment-generating function of the GT.[<xref rid="ref20" ref-type="bibr">20</xref>
] The parameter <italic>r</italic>
is determined by the Poisson regression. Furthermore, the parameter <italic>w</italic>
is GT.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec3-4"><title>The maximum likelihood</title>
<p>Let <italic>N</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
, <italic>N</italic>
<sub>1</sub>
,...., <italic>N</italic>
<sub>T</sub>
identify incident cases over sequential time. The log-likelihood function is:</p>
<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g003.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</p>
<p>where</p>
<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g004.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</p>
<p>and <italic>R</italic>
is the maximum value of the log-likelihood function.[<xref rid="ref21" ref-type="bibr">21</xref>
] Furthermore, the parameter w is estimated by maximizing log-likelihood is GT.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec3-5"><title>Time-dependent reproduction numbers</title>
<p>In this method, <italic>R</italic>
<sub>t</sub>
is computed by averaging <italic>R</italic>
<sub>j</sub>
, which is the mean of all transmission networks corresponding to the cases observed.[<xref rid="ref22" ref-type="bibr">22</xref>
]</p>
<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g005.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</p>
<p>where</p>
<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g006.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</p>
<p>And</p>
<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g007.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</p>
<p>Consider that person <italic>i</italic>
and person <italic>j</italic>
are in times <italic>t</italic>
<sub>i</sub>
and <italic>t</italic>
<sub>j</sub>
, respectively, then displays the probability of infection transmission from person <italic>j</italic>
to person i so <italic>R</italic>
<sub>t</sub>
compute by averaging all <italic>R</italic>
<sub>j</sub>
which is the mean of all transmission networks correspondent with the cases that observed.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec3-6"><title>The gamma-distributed generation time</title>
<p>The number of cases on the day “<italic>t</italic>
,” denoted by <italic>n</italic>
<sub>t</sub>
in (<italic>t</italic>
<sub>1</sub>
, <italic>t</italic>
<sub>2</sub>
) grows exponentially where</p>
<p><italic>n</italic>
<sub>t</sub>
= <italic>n</italic>
<sub>t1</sub>
exp (<italic>r</italic>
[<italic>t</italic>
– <italic>t</italic>
1]) (9)</p>
<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g008.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</p>
<p>And</p>
<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g009.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</p>
<p>The EG denotes by <italic>r</italic>
. The mean and standard deviation of the GT are μ and σ, respectively, where <italic>a</italic>
= μ<sup>2</sup>
/σ<sup>2</sup>
and <italic>b</italic>
= μ/σ<sup>2</sup>
.[<xref rid="ref23" ref-type="bibr">23</xref>
]</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec3-7"><title><italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
using the final size of the epidemic</title>
<p>The <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
can be estimated with the below formula:</p>
<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g010.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</p>
<p>where the total population at risk and total number of infections are denoted by <italic>N</italic>
and <italic>C</italic>
, respectively.[<xref rid="ref24" ref-type="bibr">24</xref>
]</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="sec2-4"><title>Vaccination coverage</title>
<p>The vaccination coverage is computed by the basic reproduction number with formula:</p>
<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g011.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</p>
<p>which shows the proportion of peoples who should be received the vaccine.[<xref rid="ref7" ref-type="bibr">7</xref>
]</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec2-5"><title>Comparison of methods</title>
<p>For exploring the closeness of the estimation of the mentioned methods to the actual <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
s and comparing them with each other, we applied 10000 times simulation for each formula based on the Canada data. The epidemics were simulated with the following properties. The distribution of the GT was considered gamma with the mean of 3.6 and standard deviation of 1.4. According to real data (the Canada data), the length of the epidemic was 80 days. Moreover, the peak value (the threshold value for the incidence before epidemics begin decreasing) for the Canada data occurred in the day 54. Therefore, we applied the value equal to 54 for the peak value in the simulation command [For details, see the simulation command under <xref rid="T1" ref-type="table">Table 1</xref>
in the results section]. Simulation of the basic reproduction number was made with above characteristics and the MSE was calculated for evaluating the performance of models with below formula. The lowest MSE value corresponds to the method which fitted the data best.</p>
<table-wrap id="T1" position="float"><label>Table 1</label>
<caption><p>The simulated R<sub>0</sub>
s and their 95% confidence interval for each method</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups"><thead><tr><th align="left" rowspan="3" colspan="1">Actual R<sub>0</sub>
</th>
<th align="center" colspan="6" rowspan="1">R<sub>0</sub>
(95% CI)</th>
</tr>
<tr><th align="center" colspan="6" rowspan="1"><hr></hr>
</th>
</tr>
<tr><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">ML</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">EG</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">TD</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">AR</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Gamma-distributed generation time</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">R<sub>0</sub>
using the final size of the epidemic</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.23 (1.03, 1.47)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.26 (1.19, 1.34)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.17 (0.93, 1.42)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.000003 (1.000003, 1.000004)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.25 (0.98, 1.52)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.91 (0.23, 1.58)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.116</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.27 (1.08, 1.49)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.33 (1.26, 1.40)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.24 (1.0, 1.47)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.000004 (1.000004, 1.000005)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.30 (1.03, 1.57)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.93 (0.39, 1.46)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.42</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.43 (1.28, 1.61)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.54 (1.48, 1.61)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.47 (1.29, 1.65)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.000009 (1.000008, 1.000009)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.48 (1.21, 1.75)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.97 (0.71, 1.23)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.46</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.47 (1.32, 1.63)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.59 (1.53, 1.66)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.51 (1.34, 1.69)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.000007 (1.000007, 1.000009)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.52 (1.26, 1.79)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.98 (0.75, 1.20)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.49</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.48 (1.33, 1.64)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.59 (1.53, 1.65)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.51 (1.33, 1.69)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.000008 (1.000008, 1.000009)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.54 (1.27, 1.81)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.98 (0.75, 1.21)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.68</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.60 (1.47, 1.73)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.75 (1.69, 1.81)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.64 (1.44, 1.84)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.000006 (1.000006, 1.000007)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.64 (1.37, 1.91)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.99 (0.80, 1.73)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.71</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.60 (1.48, 1.73)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.76 (1.71, 1.83)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.66 (1.44, 1.88)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.000006 (1.000005, 1.000006)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.64 (1.38, 1.91)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.99 (0.81, 1.17)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.56 (1.47, 1.66)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.80 (1.76, 1.85)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.83 (1.53, 2.13)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.000005 (1.000005, 1.000006)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.67 (1.41, 1.94)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.99 (0.83, 1.16)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.5</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.36 (1.29, 1.42)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.6 (1.57, 1.63)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.16 (1.71, 2.60)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.000004 (1.000003, 1.000004)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.62 (1.35, 1.89)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1 (0.82, 1.17)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.26 (1.21, 1.33)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.46 (1.43, 1.48)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.47 (1.87, 3.06)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.000003 (1.000003, 1.000004)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.56 (1.29, 1.82)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1 (0.81, 1.18)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot><fn><p>Sim.epid (epid.n b=10000, GT=Generation.time (“gamma”, c [3, 1.4]), R0 =r0, epid.length=80, family=“poisson”, peak.value=54). AR=Attack rate; R0 =Reproduction number; CI=Confidence interval; EG=Exponential growth rate; TD=Time dependent reproduction numbers; ML=Maximum likelihood; This is simulation command in R<sub>0</sub>
package of R software</p>
</fn>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<p><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g012.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="results" id="sec1-3"><title>RESULTS</title>
<sec id="sec2-6"><title>Canadian 2009 H1N1 influenza data</title>
<p>We fitted the six models to the daily dataset of Canada, throughout the 80-day period of the studies. All dates of the Canada data were based on month/day form 18 April, 2009 to 6 July, 2009. Moreover, the number of infected people was plotted as frequency [<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1">Figure 1</xref>
].</p>
<fig id="F1" position="float"><label>Figure 1</label>
<caption><p>The incidence case counts influenza data of Canada during 18 April, 2009–6 July, 2009</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g013"></graphic>
</fig>
<p>In order to demonstrate the difference in modeling with various formulas, the result of the Richard model (presented in Hsieh's study)[<xref rid="ref15" ref-type="bibr">15</xref>
] as well as the results of the other six models are presented in <xref rid="T2" ref-type="table">Table 2</xref>
. The reported <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95% confidence interval [CI]) (vaccination coverage%) using the Richard model was 1.68 (1.45, 1.91) (40.47) that means every person infected 1.68 other people on average during the infection period. Note that, <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95%CI) (vaccination coverage%) for the estimation of TD (1.71 [1.12, 2.03] [41.52]) was clearly close to <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for the Richard model. The second method with the closest <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95%CI) to that of the Richard model was the gamma-distributed GT (1.49 [1.0, 1.97] [32.88]). On the other hand, the computed <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95%CI) using the EG was 1.46 (1.41, 1.52) (31.51). The ML method revealed that the calculated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95% CI) for this model was different from that for the Richard model (1.42 [1.27, 1.57] [29.58]). In addition, the estimated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95% CI) (vaccination coverage%) by the AR with two approaches was 1.000388 (1.000383, 1.000392) (0.04) and 1.1164 (1.1163, 1.1165) (10.43). The minimum computed <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95% CI) was related to the estimation of the final size of the epidemic obtained as 1.0 (0.91, 1.09). The estimates of vaccination coverage for the six methods were vary. The lowest and highest vaccination coverage values in this setting were associated with AR and TD methods, respectively.</p>
<table-wrap id="T2" position="float"><label>Table 2</label>
<caption><p>The Reproduction number estimation by the different methods for the Canada data (2009)</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups"><thead><tr><th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Method</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">R<sub>0</sub>
(95% CI for R<sub>0</sub>
)</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Vaccination coverage (%)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Richard model</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.68 (1.45, 1.91)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">40.47</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="2" colspan="1">AR</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.000388 (1.000383, 1.000392)<sup>a</sup>
</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.04</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.1164 (1.1163, 1.1165)<sup>b</sup>
</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">10.43</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">EG</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.46 (1.41, 1.52)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">31.51</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">ML</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.42 (1.27, 1.57)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">29.58</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">TD</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.71 (1.12, 2.03)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">41.52</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Gamma-distributed generation time</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.49 (1.0, 1.97)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">32.88</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">R<sub>0</sub>
using the final size of the epidemic</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.0 (0.91, 1.09)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot><fn><p><sup>a</sup>
AR based on incidence (<italic>n</italic>
=33,630,000), <sup>b</sup>
AR based on reported AR=0.201. R<sub>0</sub>
: Reproduction number; TD=Time-dependent reproduction numbers; ML=Maximum likelihood; EG=Exponential growth rate; AR=Attack rate, CI=Confidence interval</p>
</fn>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<p>In order to compare the mentioned models to find the formula with better fit to the actual values, we conducted a simulation with R software and calculated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
based on the six models reported in <xref rid="T2" ref-type="table">Table 2</xref>
. We used gamma distribution for the GT with the mean of 3.6 and standard deviation of 1.4. The peak value determined right over the original data were equal to 54. Then, using the above parameters, the simulation was implemented and <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
was computed for each method. The simulation results for comparing the quality of the six methods are represented in <xref rid="T1" ref-type="table">Table 1</xref>
and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure 2</xref>
. In order to carry out the simulation, the number of runs to achieve the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
was 10000.</p>
<fig id="F2" position="float"><label>Figure 2</label>
<caption><p>The plots of the actual and simulated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
compared for each method</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g014"></graphic>
</fig>
<p>The results, given in <xref rid="T1" ref-type="table">Table 1</xref>
, indicated that there were differences between the actual and simulated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
; however, the TD method had the closest value to the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
calculated from the simulation compared to the other methods. Surprisingly, some variation was considered for the ML estimations when the actual values were equal to one, between one and two and greater than two. In the ML method, we found that the simulated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for small values was very close to that for the actual values when the actual values were between 1.42 and 1.71; while the simulated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for large values was very different from that for the actual values. For the gamma-distributed GT approach, the simulated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
grew out of the actual values for values close to one. In contrast, the results showed that the computed values for <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
in the simulated system were slightly greater than the actual values when we applied <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
between 1.42 and 2. By following the same interpretation, we can infer that the EG method had a small variation for small <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
values (1.4 < <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
< 2). On the other hand, the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
estimations using the EG diverged from the actual <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
but was not significant. Finally, the computed <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
by the AR and final size of the epidemic methods seemed likely to reflect stability for all <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
s. In particular, for the latest assumed <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
s, the estimated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
was equal to one.</p>
<p>We also plotted [<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2">Figure 2</xref>
] the actual <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
and simulated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
based on six methods with the parameters described in <xref rid="T1" ref-type="table">Table 1</xref>
. For evaluating the performance of models, we computed MSE for all methods [<xref rid="T3" ref-type="table">Table 3</xref>
]. The TD method had the lowest MSE value in comparison to other methods. The MSE of AR and final size of the epidemic methods was very varied. In addition, MSE of ML, EG, and gamma-distributed GT methods were also calculated. For ML, EG, and gamma-distributed GT, the mean of MSE of all points were 4.85, 3.81, and 3.31, respectively. As noted above, the TD introduced the approach with the nearest estimation to the actual <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
based on MSE criterion.</p>
<table-wrap id="T3" position="float"><label>Table 3</label>
<caption><p>Mean squared error of reproduction number estimation for each method</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups"><thead><tr><th align="left" rowspan="3" colspan="1">R<sub>0</sub>
</th>
<th align="center" colspan="6" rowspan="1">Method</th>
</tr>
<tr><th align="center" colspan="6" rowspan="1"><hr></hr>
</th>
</tr>
<tr><th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">ML</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">EG</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">TD</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">AR</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Gamma-distributed generation time</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">The final size of the epidemic</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.061</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.090</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.042</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.036e-11</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.080</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.015</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.116</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.038</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.072</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.030</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.014</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.055</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.043</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.42</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.027</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.064</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.025</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.178</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.043</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.207</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.46</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.027</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.065</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.022</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.212</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.041</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.236</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.49</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.027</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.059</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.022</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.240</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.040</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.266</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.68</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.035</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.050</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.014</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.046</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.026</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.482</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.71</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.042</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.050</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.016</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.505</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.028</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.524</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.0</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.242</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.089</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.043</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.001</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.118</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.014</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.5</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.345</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.862</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.141</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.252</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.784</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.267</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3.0</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3.011</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.405</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.321</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">4.004</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.097</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">4.022</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Total mean</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">4.855</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3.806</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.676</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">8.452</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3.312</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">9.076</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot><fn><p>R<sub>0</sub>
=Reproduction number; TD=Time-dependent reproduction numbers; ML=Maximum likelihood; EG=Exponential growth rate; AR=Attack rate</p>
</fn>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<p>We also performed a sensitivity analysis with the incidence data of Canada on the GT with the gamma distribution [<xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3">Figure 3</xref>
]. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95% CI) for the mean GT (days) of 3.6 and 4.9 was estimated as 1.47 (1.41, 1.53) and 1.67 (1.58, 1.76). Thus, the computed <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
was approximately near that of the Richard and TD methods when the mean GT was equal to 4.9.</p>
<fig id="F3" position="float"><label>Figure 3</label>
<caption><p>Sensitivity of <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
to mean generation time to select the generation time</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g015"></graphic>
</fig>
</sec>
<sec id="sec2-7"><title>Canadian 2017–2018 H1N1 influenza data</title>
<p>The incidence data are reported based on week/year from the 35<sup>th</sup>
week in 2017 to the 34<sup>th</sup>
week in 2018. Peak value for this data has occurred in the 12<sup>th</sup>
week in 2018 after starting the epidemics. The number of infected cases is plotted in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4">Figure 4</xref>
.</p>
<fig id="F4" position="float"><label>Figure 4</label>
<caption><p>The incidence case counts influenza data of Canada from the 35<sup>th</sup>
week in 2017 to the 34<sup>th</sup>
week in 2018</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g016"></graphic>
</fig>
<p>For the given data, <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95% CI) and vaccination coverage based on TD method was computed. Indeed, we found that the estimated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
by TD method was (1.52 95% CI: 1.11, 1.94). In addition, the estimates of vaccination coverage were 34.2% for 2017–2018.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="discussion" id="sec1-4"><title>DISCUSSION</title>
<p>We implemented six methods (the ML, EG, TD, AR, gamma-distributed and final size of the epidemic), which permitted the estimation of the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
as key parameters of the epidemic based on the A/H1N1 Influenza cumulative case counts data in Canada (2009). The <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for the ML, EG, TD, AR, gamma-distributed and final size of the epidemic methods were estimated 1.42, 1.46, 1.71, 1.116, 1.49, and 1.0, respectively. In most cases, the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
was greater than unity; hence, the epidemic outbreak was observed. In addition, the computed <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for Canadian data (2018) by TD method was greater than one indicating that an epidemic occurred in Canada (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
> 1). Thus, it seems necessary to consider appropriate solutions in order to control, decrease and prevent the epidemic or pandemic of influenza. One of the most effective methods to protect people against influenza is vaccination that can be determined by using <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(vaccination coverage = 1 − 1/<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
). On the other hand, annual influenza vaccination in the high-risk groups such as elderly people, ill person, pregnant woman, and children can reduce mortality rate. In addition, vaccination can also reduce the incidence of disease, cost, exacerbations of the disease, and hospitalizations. The vaccination coverage for Canada (2009) ranged between 10.43 and 41.52 using various methods and this value was 34.2% for 2017–2018 influenza Canada data.</p>
<p>Moreover, we performed a simulation using R software for several <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
and obtained their estimates based on the epidemic data of Canada (2009) for the six methods. The computed <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
in the TD method was nearly the same as the actual <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
based on MSE criterion. Comparing the simulation results from the ML, gamma-distributed GT and EG methods showed variation for different values of the actual <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
; however, some of the calculated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
s applying the simulation were close to the actual values. For the most actual <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
, the simulated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
by the AR and final size of the epidemic methods was equal to one. Whereas these type of modeling approaches are not able to differentiate between various <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
. We believe that this may correspond to the small number of the infected cases compared to the susceptible cases.</p>
<p>Note that, our basic reproduction number estimated using the TD method was consistent with that derived from the Richard model in the Canadian papers.[<xref rid="ref15" ref-type="bibr">15</xref>
] Not only the simulated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for the value 1.68 almost agreed with that of the TD approach but also the other simulated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
by the TD method was nearly consistent with the actual <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
. In other words, the lowest MSE values were obtained for TD method.</p>
<p>From the methods reviewed in <xref rid="T6" ref-type="table">Appendix Table 2</xref>
, which can be applied to estimate the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
, the approaches presented in <xref rid="T1" ref-type="table">Table 1</xref>
fitted to the cumulative cases data. All the methods reviewed in this paper, as any modeling techniques, had advantageous and disadvantageous. One of the strengths of this study is to review all studies done related to influenza and then selected some of the frequently used model and determine their strengths and weaknesses; seven of them used for the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
estimation in the Canada data, as shown in <xref rid="T1" ref-type="table">Table 1</xref>
, are explained in details in <xref rid="T4" ref-type="table">Table 4</xref>
.</p>
<table-wrap id="T4" position="float"><label>Table 4</label>
<caption><p>Limitation and power of the methods used for the cumulative case counts data</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups"><thead><tr><th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Models</th>
<th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Advantageous</th>
<th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Disadvantageous</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">The Richard model</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">For cumulative case count, it gives simple means of fitting <break></break>
For modeling, it only needs cumulative case counts Initial estimation of R<sub>0</sub>
is fairly stable and credible</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Missing data provide problems (which may be nonrandom) <break></break>
Data quality (real-time modeling) is important</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">ML</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Serial interval estimates by this formulation and then details of the disease dynamics can be characterized <break></break>
The MLE and posterior mode (with uninformative gamma prior distribution) are equal when the serial interval is known[<xref rid="ref25" ref-type="bibr">25</xref>
] <break></break>
The MLE approach is the least biased <break></break>
The approach used for missing data in the ML method is similar to McBryde in Bayesian[<xref rid="ref26" ref-type="bibr">26</xref>
]</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Some of the assumptions of the models are: no imported cases, no missing data and uniformly-mixed population. <break></break>
Violation of any of these assumptions changes the results[<xref rid="ref27" ref-type="bibr">27</xref>
] <break></break>
In the long period for the aggregated data, the estimation of the reproduction number tends to be increasingly underestimated</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">EG</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Aggregated data and dispersion are least impressed on the estimation of reproduction</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">For the initial phase of the epidemic, this simple method may not be always powerful <break></break>
The assumptions should be checked and the method should be used with caution[<xref rid="ref28" ref-type="bibr">28</xref>
]</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">TD</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">It is the least biased <break></break>
Importation of the cases can be accounted within the epidemic</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">In the long period for the aggregated data, the estimation of the reproduction number tends to be increasingly underestimated <break></break>
In the TD approach, the R<sub>0</sub>
depends on time and changes with it and no solution exists for correcting this method</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">AR</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">The least information is needed for this approach[<xref rid="ref28" ref-type="bibr">28</xref>
] <break></break>
The AR method, unlike the other models, does not require the GT distribution (there may be no prior knowledge about the GT distribution)</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">It is useful when the epidemic ends <break></break>
No intervention is required to set up during outbreak <break></break>
This method is applied in particular limited settings such as army and schools[<xref rid="ref29" ref-type="bibr">29</xref>
] It does not require the GT distribution</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">The gamma-distributed generation time</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Only the number of cases on each day and generation time distribution are needed for modeling</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">The growth in case number over time should be specified; the violation of this condition can be problematic</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">R<sub>0</sub>
using the final size of the epidemic</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">For modeling, the total population at risk and total number of infections for a fully susceptible population are only required</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">It is useful when the epidemic ends <break></break>
It does not require the generation time distribution</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot><fn><p>GT=Generation time; R<sub>0</sub>
=Reproduction number; TD=Time-dependent reproduction numbers; ML=Maximum likelihood; MLE=ML estimation; EG=Exponential growth rate; AR=Attack rate</p>
</fn>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
<p>Regarding <xref rid="T4" ref-type="table">Table 4</xref>
, it seemed that the TD, ML and EG methods had superiority compared to the other methods. These models were used by researchers to estimate <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
of influenza.</p>
<p>Some studies estimated the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
from influenza data using different models and compared the results. Obadia <italic>et al.</italic>
obtained estimates of <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
from the “Germany 1918” epidemic data based on five approaches which including the AR, ML, sequential Bayesian and TD methods. In addition, comparing results from different methods showed that the biased ML and TD methods were least.[<xref rid="ref30" ref-type="bibr">30</xref>
] Another study applied four different methods (the EG, simple susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered [SEIR], more complex SEIR-type model, and ML model) in order to compare these estimation approaches. The EG had large uncertainty while ML had a consistent estimate with the estimate of the autumn wave.[<xref rid="ref20" ref-type="bibr">20</xref>
] In general, the TD had a good fit on the data as confirmed with the Richard model and MSE criterion.</p>
<p>A weakness of this study is that the 2009 Canada data have been used for comparing methods, which looks old. The reason for this, is comparing <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
with pervious article[<xref rid="ref15" ref-type="bibr">15</xref>
] and comparing the methods with the actual values which are exist on this data in the mentioned paper. Finally, a more comprehensive study for influenza as an annual national disaster using new method such as Bayesian is needed that we are going to do in the future research.</p>
</sec>
<sec sec-type="conclusion" id="sec1-5"><title>CONCLUSION</title>
<p>Awareness of the basic reproduction number of influenza is useful for calculating vaccination coverage and then applying vaccine strategy. Therefore, it is necessary to know the method which has better performance for influenza data that our results showed the TD method is preferred. One advantage of the TD method in compared to the other methods was that it was useful for computing the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
regarding the real cumulative case count data. Another advantage of the mentioned modeling was that it did not require extensive, detailed data as well as more parameters to calculate the basic reproduction number. Therefore, we recommend using this method in order to estimate the basic reproduction number.</p>
<sec id="sec2-8"><title>Financial support and sponsorship</title>
<p>Nil.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec2-9" sec-type="COI-statement"><title>Conflicts of interest</title>
<p>There are no conflicts of interest.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
</body>
<back><ack><title>Acknowledgments</title>
<p>This research is part of Roya Nikbakht's PhD dissertation. We are very grateful to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) website and the Respiratory Virus Detections in Canada Report website to provide online database and access to use their data.</p>
</ack>
<app-group><app id="App1"><title>APPENDIX</title>
<sec id="sec1-6"><title>SEARCH STRATEGY</title>
<p>In order to review the literature on basic reproduction number of influenza, we searched in the electronic databases such as the web of knowledge, PubMed, EMBASE, and Google Scholar to find published papers between 1954 and 2017. The medical subject heading was applied to find a wide range of keywords that had a maximum sensitivity. The following keywords were searched: influenza, human, and reproduction number. In detail searched keywords were (“influenza, human”[MeSH Terms] OR (“influenza”[All Fields] AND “human”[All Fields]) OR “human influenza”[All Fields] OR “influenza”[All Fields]) AND ((“reproduction”[MeSH Terms] OR “reproduction”[All Fields]) AND number [All Fields]).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="sec1-7"><title>STUDY SELECTION</title>
<p>Two reviewers independently extracted relevant studies from the keywords search. All types of original articles were investigated. The studies which included “influenza reproduction number” in their titles or abstracts were included. The irrelevant articles, based on the title and abstract evaluation, were excluded. Moreover, we eliminated the duplicated articles to determine unique studies. Animal studies and human studies that included special populations such as pregnant women and schizophrenia were excluded. We then extracted data and formulas from the full text of the included studies.</p>
<p><xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5">Figure 1</xref>
shows the search strategy, through which 1213 papers were obtained in the initial round. The number of the retained papers was 910, which estimated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for epidemic or pandemic influenza with A/H1N1, A/H1N5, H1N2, H1N3, H5N1, pH 1N1, A/H3N2, influenza B, A (H7N9), Spanish flu, H2N2, H3N2, AH1, AH3, A (H5N1), and Asian flu. The number of papers identified through other sources was 5. Overall, 89 papers presented the basic reproduction number estimation and its formula, as summarized in <xref rid="T1" ref-type="table">Table 1</xref>
.</p>
<fig id="F5" position="anchor"><label>Figure 1</label>
<caption><p>PRISMA flowchart of the article selection for the reproduction number and influenza literature review</p>
</caption>
<graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g017"></graphic>
</fig>
<p>In addition, detailed information of the study characteristics provided in the systematic review is given in <xref rid="T2" ref-type="table">Table 2</xref>
, of which 10 studies were taken into consideration. In some of the studies, p-H1N1, A (H1N1), A (H3N2), type B, and A (H7N9) were reported as types of influenza. The models used for estimating <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
in these 8 studies were the multi-control measure, growth rate of exponential, and multi-phase Richards. In several of the studies, laboratory-confirmed cases were investigated for determining the reproduction number of influenza. Maximum, minimum and median of the reproduction number were 10.03 (in Mainland China), 0.08 (in China) and 1.39, respectively. The reproduction number of the influenza type A (H1N1) in Taiwan (2013) and Mexico was reported 1.54 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.22–8.88) and 1.69 (95% CI: 1.65–1.73), respectively. For A (H7N9), the reproduction number and its 95% CI in China for the first wave was estimated 0.27 (0.14, 0.44).</p>
<table-wrap id="T5" position="anchor"><label>Appendix Table 1</label>
<caption><p>The formula which applied for calculating reproduction number in different studies</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups"><thead><tr><th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Id</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Formula</th>
<th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Reference</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Id</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Formula</th>
<th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Reference</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g018.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ajelli and Merler, 2012</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g019.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ajelli and Merler, 2012, Chowell <italic>et al</italic>
., 2008, Chowell <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012, Chowell <italic>et al</italic>
., 2011, Pamaran <italic>et al</italic>
., 2013</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g020.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ajelli <italic>et al</italic>
., 2014</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">4</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g021.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chowell <italic>et al</italic>
., 2007b</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">5</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g022.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chen and Liao, 2010, Chen and Liao, 2013, Chong <italic>et al</italic>
., 2016</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">6</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g023.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chowell <italic>et al</italic>
., 2007c</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g024.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Andreasen <italic>et al</italic>
., 2008, Haghdoost <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012, Jackson <italic>et al</italic>
., 2009</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">8</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g025.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chowell <italic>et al</italic>
., 2013</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">9</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g026.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Andreasen <italic>et al</italic>
., 2008, Barakat <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012, Buckley and Bulger, 2011, Jackson <italic>et al</italic>
., 2009</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">10</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g027.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chowell <italic>et al</italic>
., 2010</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">11</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g028.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Caley <italic>et al</italic>
., 2008</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">12</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g029.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Cowling <italic>et al</italic>
., 2010</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">13</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g030.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chen <italic>et al</italic>
., 2009</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">14</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g031.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Dorigatti <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">15</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g032.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chen <italic>et al</italic>
., 2015</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">16</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic>f<sub>p</sub>
</italic>
=(1–<italic>p</italic>
).1+<italic>p.f<sub>i</sub>
</italic>
=1+<italic>p</italic>
(<italic>f<sub>i</sub>
</italic>
–1)<break></break>
<italic>R</italic>
=<italic>S<sub>init</sub>
</italic>
×<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Earn <italic>et al</italic>
., 2014</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">17</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g033.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Sheikh Taslim <italic>et al</italic>
., 2013</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">18</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
=<italic>kR</italic>
<sub>3</sub>
+(1–<italic>k</italic>
)<italic>R</italic>
<sub>4</sub>
<break></break>
<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
=<italic>R</italic>
<sub>1</sub>
+<italic>αR</italic>
<sub>2</sub>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ejima <italic>et al</italic>
., 2013</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">19</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g034.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chen <italic>et al</italic>
., 2016</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">20</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g035.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Fielding <italic>et al</italic>
., 2015</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">21</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic>R</italic>
=1+<italic>rT</italic>
<sub>c</sub>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chen <italic>et al</italic>
., 2017</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">22</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g036.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Fierro and Liccardo, 2011</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">23</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g037.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Cheng <italic>et al</italic>
., 2016</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">24</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic>R<sub>A</sub>
</italic>
=(<italic>n</italic>
–1)<italic>P</italic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Furuya, 2007</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">25</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g038.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Fraser <italic>et al</italic>
., 2011</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> </td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g039.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Hsieh, 2010a</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">27</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g040.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chong <italic>et al</italic>
., 2016</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">28</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g041.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Nishiura, 2007</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">29</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g042.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chong <italic>et al</italic>
., 2017</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">30</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g043.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Glass <italic>et al</italic>
., 2011</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">31</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g044.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chowell <italic>et al</italic>
., 2007a</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">32</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g045.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Gran <italic>et al</italic>
., 2010</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">33</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g046.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Gurav <italic>et al</italic>
., 2017</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">34</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g047.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Meeyai <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">35</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g048.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Hens <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">36</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g049.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Modchang <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">37</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g050.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Hens <italic>et al</italic>
., 2011</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">38</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g051.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Mostaco-Guidolin <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">39</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
=exp(<italic>rT</italic>
)</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Hsieh, 2010b, Hsieh <italic>et al</italic>
., 2011a, Hsieh <italic>et al</italic>
., 2010, Hsieh <italic>et al</italic>
., 2016, Hsieh <italic>et al</italic>
., 2011b, Liu <italic>et al</italic>
., 2015b, Mostaco-Guidolin <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">40</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic>R<sub>ij</sub>
</italic>
=<italic>Rs<sub>i</sub>
m<sub>ij</sub>
</italic>
<break></break>
R is defined as the dominant eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Nishiura <italic>et al</italic>
., 2010</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">41</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g052.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Inaba and Nishiura, 2008</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">42</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g053.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Nishiura <italic>et al</italic>
., 2013</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">43</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g054.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Obadia <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">44</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g055.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Nyirenda <italic>et al</italic>
., 2016</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">45</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g056.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Kadi and Avaradi, 2015</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">46</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g057.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Kelso <italic>et al</italic>
., 2013</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">47</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g058.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Lin <italic>et al</italic>
., 2016</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">48</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
=(1+rT<sub>I</sub>
)(1+rT<sub>L</sub>
)</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Rizzo <italic>et al</italic>
., 2011</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">49</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g059.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Kim <italic>et al</italic>
., 2017</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">50</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g060.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Roberts and Nishiura, 2011</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">51</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g061.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Kucharski and Edmunds, 2015</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">52</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g062.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Roll <italic>et al</italic>
., 2011</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">53</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g063.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Liu <italic>et al</italic>
., 2015a</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">54</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g064.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Sattenspiel, 2011, Sertsou <italic>et al</italic>
., 2006</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">55</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g065.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Marquetoux <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">56</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g066.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Shil <italic>et al</italic>
., 2011</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">57</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g067.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Massad <italic>et al</italic>
., 2007</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">58</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g068.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Tan <italic>et al</italic>
., 2013</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">59</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic>R</italic>
=<italic>Z</italic>
(<italic>t</italic>
)<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Mathews <italic>et al</italic>
., 2010</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">60</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g069.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Tang <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">61</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g070.jpg"></inline-graphic>
and <inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g071.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Truscott <italic>et al</italic>
., 2009</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">62</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g072.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Tsukui, 2012</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">63</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g073.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Van Kerckhove <italic>et al</italic>
., 2013</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">64</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g074.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Ward <italic>et al</italic>
., 2009</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">65</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g075.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">White <italic>et al</italic>
., 2009</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">66</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g076.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Xiao <italic>et al</italic>
., 2014</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">67</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g077.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Yang <italic>et al</italic>
., 2015</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">68</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g078.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Yu <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">69</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g079.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Zhang <italic>et al</italic>
., 2010</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">70</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic>P</italic>
(z,θ|<italic>y</italic>
)∝<italic>P</italic>
(y|z)<italic>P</italic>
(z|θ)<italic>P</italic>
(θ)</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Cauchemez <italic>et al</italic>
., 2011</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">71</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic>b</italic>
(<italic>R</italic>
)=exp(<italic>τγ</italic>
(<italic>R</italic>
–1))</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Kelly <italic>et al</italic>
., 2010</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">72</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g080.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Tang <italic>et al</italic>
., 2010</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<table-wrap id="T6" position="anchor"><label>Appendix Table 2</label>
<caption><p>Characteristics of several included studies</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups"><thead><tr><th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Id</th>
<th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Author (published date)</th>
<th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Place of study</th>
<th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Subject</th>
<th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Type of influenza</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">R0 (95% CI)</th>
<th align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Formula</th>
<th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Method</th>
<th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Model</th>
<th align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Refrence</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody><tr><td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">1</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">Y. H. Cheng (2013)</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">Taiwan</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">Elementary school</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">p-H1N1</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3.30 (0.75, 11.47)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="4" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g081.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">Branching process</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">Multi-control measure model</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">Cheng and Liao, 2013</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">A (H1N1)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.54 (0.22, 8.88)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">A (H3N2)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.11 (0.18, 6.20)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Type B</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.11 (0.12, 8.52)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="3" colspan="1">2</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="3" colspan="1">K. C. Chong (2016)</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="3" colspan="1">Zhejiang Province, China</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="3" colspan="1">Laboratory- confirmed patients</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">A (H7N9) first wave</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.27 (0.14, 0.44)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="3" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g082.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="3" colspan="1">MCMC</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="3" colspan="1">Susceptible (S [t]), infectious (I [t]), or recovered</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="3" colspan="1">Chong <italic>et al</italic>
., 2016</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">A (H7N9) second wave</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.15 (0.09, 0.24)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">A (H7N9) third wave</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.15 (0.06, 0.26)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">K. C. Chong (2017)</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Mexico</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">New influenza pandemic</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">A/H1N1</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.69 (1.65, 1.73)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"><italic>I</italic>
(<italic>t</italic>
)=<italic>I</italic>
(0)exp[(<italic>β–γ</italic>
)<italic>t</italic>
]=exp[(<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
–1)<italic>γt</italic>
]</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">A likelihood- based method</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">SIR</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Chong <italic>et al</italic>
., 2017</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="6" colspan="1">5</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="6" colspan="1">G. Chowell (2012)</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="6" colspan="1">Chile- Northern area</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="6" colspan="1">All hospitalizations</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="6" colspan="1">A/H1N1</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.19 (1.13, 1.24)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="6" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g083.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="6" colspan="1">Maximum likelihood</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="6" colspan="1">Growth rate of the exponential pandemic</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="6" colspan="1">Chowell <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.25 (1.18, 1.32)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.32 (1.27, 1.37)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.43 (1.36, 1.50)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.58 (1.45, 1.72)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.81 (1.62, 2.0)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">6</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">I. Dorigatti (2012)</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">Italy</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">Surveillance data</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">A/H1N1</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.42 (1.41, 1.424)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="4" colspan="1"><inline-graphic xlink:href="JRMS-24-67-g084.jpg"></inline-graphic>
</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">MCMC, Bayesian</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">SEIR</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="4" colspan="1">Dorigatti <italic>et al</italic>
., 2012</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.38 (1.37, 1.39)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.32 (1.30, 1.34)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.31 (1.282, 1.35)</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="left" rowspan="2" colspan="1">7</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="2" colspan="1">Y. H. Hsieh (2011)</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="2" colspan="1">Taiwan</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="2" colspan="1">Confirmed cases and hospitalizations</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="2" colspan="1">pH1N1</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.14 (1.04, 1.25)</td>
<td align="center" rowspan="2" colspan="1"><italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
=exp(<italic>rT</italic>
)</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="2" colspan="1">-</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="2" colspan="1">The multi-phase Richards model</td>
<td align="left" rowspan="2" colspan="1">Hsieh <italic>et al</italic>
., 2011a</td>
</tr>
<tr><td align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.02 (1.01, 1.02)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot><fn><p>CI=Confidence interval; MCMC=Monte carlo markov chain; SEIR=Susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered; SIR=Susceptible-infectious-recovered</p>
</fn>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
</sec>
</app>
</app-group>
<ref-list><title>REFERENCES</title>
<ref id="ref1"><label>1</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><collab>World Health Organization</collab>
<source>Pandemic H1N1 2009. WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia</source>
<year>2009</year>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref2"><label>2</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Kilbourne</surname>
<given-names>ED</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Influenza pandemics of the 20th century</article-title>
<source>Emerg Infect Dis</source>
<year>2006</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<fpage>9</fpage>
<lpage>14</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">16494710</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref3"><label>3</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Askarian</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Danaei</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Vakili</surname>
<given-names>V</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding pandemic H1N1 influenza among medical and dental residents and fellowships in Shiraz, Iran</article-title>
<source>Int J Prev Med</source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<fpage>396</fpage>
<lpage>403</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23671770</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref4"><label>4</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Al Hajjar</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>McIntosh</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>The first influenza pandemic of the 21st century</article-title>
<source>Ann Saudi Med</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>30</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>10</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20103951</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref5"><label>5</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>RahimiRad</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Alizadeh</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Alizadeh</surname>
<given-names>E</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Hosseini</surname>
<given-names>SM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>The avian influenza H9N2 at avian-human interface: A possible risk for the future pandemics</article-title>
<source>J Res Med Sci</source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>21</volume>
<fpage>51</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">28083072</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref6"><label>6</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Mubareka</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Lowen</surname>
<given-names>AC</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Steel</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Coates</surname>
<given-names>AL</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>García-Sastre</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Palese</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmission of influenza virus via aerosols and fomites in the Guinea pig model</article-title>
<source>J Infect Dis</source>
<year>2009</year>
<volume>199</volume>
<fpage>858</fpage>
<lpage>65</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">19434931</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref7"><label>7</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Bridges</surname>
<given-names>CB</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Harper</surname>
<given-names>SA</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Fukuda</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Uyeki</surname>
<given-names>TM</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Cox</surname>
<given-names>NJ</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Singleton</surname>
<given-names>JA</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Prevention and control of influenza. Recommendations of the advisory committee on immunization practices (ACIP)</article-title>
<source>MMWR Recomm Rep</source>
<year>2003</year>
<volume>52</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>34</lpage>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref8"><label>8</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Plans-Rubió</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Prevention and control of influenza in persons with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease</article-title>
<source>Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis</source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>2</volume>
<fpage>41</fpage>
<lpage>53</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">18044065</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref9"><label>9</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Viboud</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Alonso</surname>
<given-names>WJ</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Simonsen</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Influenza in tropical regions</article-title>
<source>PLoS Med</source>
<year>2006</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<fpage>e89</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">16509764</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref10"><label>10</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Saunders-Hastings</surname>
<given-names>PR</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Krewski</surname>
<given-names>D</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Reviewing the history of pandemic influenza: Understanding patterns of emergence and transmission</article-title>
<source>Pathogens</source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<comment>pii: E66</comment>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref11"><label>11</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Shrestha</surname>
<given-names>SS</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Swerdlow</surname>
<given-names>DL</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Borse</surname>
<given-names>RH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Prabhu</surname>
<given-names>VS</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Finelli</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Atkins</surname>
<given-names>CY</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimating the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the United States (April 2009-April 2010)</article-title>
<source>Clin Infect Dis</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>52</volume>
<issue>Suppl 1</issue>
<fpage>S75</fpage>
<lpage>82</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21342903</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref12"><label>12</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>KM</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Riley</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimation of the basic reproductive number and mean serial interval of a novel pathogen in a small, well-observed discrete population</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<fpage>e0148061</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">26849644</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref13"><label>13</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Becker</surname>
<given-names>NG</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Bahrampour</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Preventing epidemics with age-specific vaccination schedules</article-title>
<source>Math Biosci</source>
<year>1997</year>
<volume>142</volume>
<fpage>63</fpage>
<lpage>77</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">9159058</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref14"><label>14</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Woolhouse</surname>
<given-names>ME</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Hasibeder</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chandiwana</surname>
<given-names>SK</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>On estimating the basic reproduction number for schistosoma haematobium</article-title>
<source>Trop Med Int Health</source>
<year>1996</year>
<volume>1</volume>
<fpage>456</fpage>
<lpage>63</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">8765453</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref15"><label>15</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Hsieh</surname>
<given-names>YH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Fisman</surname>
<given-names>DN</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>On epidemic modeling in real time: An application to the 2009 novel A (H1N1) influenza outbreak in Canada</article-title>
<source>BMC Res Notes</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<fpage>283</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21050494</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref16"><label>16</label>
<element-citation publication-type="webpage"><source>Public Health Agency of Canada, Cases of H1N1 Flu Virus in Canada. Flu (influenza): Symptoms and Treatment</source>
<year>2009</year>
<date-in-citation>Last accessed on 2009 Jul 16</date-in-citation>
<comment>Available from: <uri xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/alert-alerte/h1n1/surveillance-archive/20090715-eng.php">http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/alert-alerte/h1n1/surveillance-archive/20090715-eng.php</uri>
</comment>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref17"><label>17</label>
<element-citation publication-type="webpage"><source>Public Health Agency of Canada. FluWatch Report: July 22, 2018 to August 25, 2018 (Weeks 30-34). Public Health Agency of Canada</source>
<year>2018</year>
<comment>2009 Canadian data link address: <uri xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="https://bmcresnotes.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1756-0500-3-283;2017-18">https://bmcresnotes.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1756-0500-3-283;2017-18</uri>
</comment>
<comment>Canadian data link address: <uri xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2017-2018/week30-34-july-22-august-25-2018.html#a2">https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/diseases-conditions/fluwatch/2017-2018/week30-34-july-22-august-25-2018.html#a2</uri>
</comment>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref18"><label>18</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Svensson</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>A note on generation times in epidemic models</article-title>
<source>Math Biosci</source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>208</volume>
<fpage>300</fpage>
<lpage>11</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">17174352</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref19"><label>19</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Dietz</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases</article-title>
<source>Stat Methods Med Res</source>
<year>1993</year>
<volume>2</volume>
<fpage>23</fpage>
<lpage>41</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">8261248</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref20"><label>20</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Wallinga</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Lipsitch</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers</article-title>
<source>Proc Biol Sci</source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>274</volume>
<fpage>599</fpage>
<lpage>604</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">17476782</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref21"><label>21</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Arruda</surname>
<given-names>AG</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Alkhamis</surname>
<given-names>MA</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>VanderWaal</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Morrison</surname>
<given-names>RB</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Perez</surname>
<given-names>AM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimation of time-dependent reproduction numbers for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome across different regions and production systems of the US</article-title>
<source>Front Vet Sci</source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<fpage>46</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">28424778</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref22"><label>22</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Roberts</surname>
<given-names>MG</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Nishiura</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Early estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: Pandemic influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>6</volume>
<fpage>e17835</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21637342</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref23"><label>23</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Jackson</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Vynnycky</surname>
<given-names>E</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Mangtani</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimates of the transmissibility of the 1968 (Hong Kong) influenza pandemic: Evidence of increased transmissibility between successive waves</article-title>
<source>Am J Epidemiol</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>171</volume>
<fpage>465</fpage>
<lpage>78</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20007674</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref24"><label>24</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Haghdoost</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Baneshi</surname>
<given-names>MR</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Zolala</surname>
<given-names>F</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Farvahari</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Safizadeh</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimation of basic reproductive number of flu-like syndrome in a primary school in Iran</article-title>
<source>Int J Prev Med</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<fpage>408</fpage>
<lpage>13</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">22783467</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref25"><label>25</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>White</surname>
<given-names>LF</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Pagano</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>A likelihood-based method for real-time estimation of the serial interval and reproductive number of an epidemic</article-title>
<source>Stat Med</source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>27</volume>
<fpage>2999</fpage>
<lpage>3016</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">18058829</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref26"><label>26</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>McBryde</surname>
<given-names>E</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Bergeri</surname>
<given-names>I</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>van Gemert</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Rotty</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Headley</surname>
<given-names>E</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Simpson</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Early transmission characteristics of influenza A (H1N1) v in Australia: Victorian state, 16 May – 3 June 2009</article-title>
<source>Euro Surveill</source>
<year>2009</year>
<volume>14</volume>
<comment>pii: 19363</comment>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref27"><label>27</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>White</surname>
<given-names>LF</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wallinga</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Finelli</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Reed</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Riley</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Lipsitch</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA</article-title>
<source>Influenza Other Respir Viruses</source>
<year>2009</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<fpage>267</fpage>
<lpage>76</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">19903209</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref28"><label>28</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Nishiura</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Bettencourt</surname>
<given-names>LM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data</article-title>
<source>J R Soc Interface</source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<fpage>155</fpage>
<lpage>66</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">17254982</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref29"><label>29</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Lessler</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Cummings</surname>
<given-names>DA</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Fishman</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Vora</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Burke</surname>
<given-names>DS</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmissibility of swine flu at Fort Dix, 1976</article-title>
<source>J R Soc Interface</source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<fpage>755</fpage>
<lpage>62</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">17412677</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref30"><label>30</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Obadia</surname>
<given-names>T</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Haneef</surname>
<given-names>R</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Boëlle</surname>
<given-names>PY</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>The R0 package: A toolbox to estimate reproduction numbers for epidemic outbreaks</article-title>
<source>BMC Med Inform Decis Mak</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<fpage>147</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23249562</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref31"><label>1</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Ajelli</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Merler</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmission potential and design of adequate control measures for marburg hemorrhagic fever</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>7</volume>
<fpage>e50948</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23251407</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref32"><label>2</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Ajelli</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Poletti</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Melegaro</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Merler</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>The role of different social contexts in shaping influenza transmission during the 2009 pandemic</article-title>
<source>Sci Rep</source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<fpage>7218</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">25427621</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref33"><label>3</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Andreasen</surname>
<given-names>V</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Viboud</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Simonsen</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Epidemiologic characterization of the 1918 influenza pandemic summer wave in Copenhagen: Implications for pandemic control strategies</article-title>
<source>J Infect Dis</source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>197</volume>
<fpage>270</fpage>
<lpage>8</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">18194088</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref34"><label>4</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Barakat</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ihazmad</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>El Falaki</surname>
<given-names>F</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Tempia</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Cherkaoui</surname>
<given-names>I</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>El Aouad</surname>
<given-names>R</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 in Morocco, 2009-2010: Epidemiology, transmissibility, and factors associated with fatal cases</article-title>
<source>J Infect Dis</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>206</volume>
<issue>Suppl 1</issue>
<fpage>S94</fpage>
<lpage>100</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23169979</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref35"><label>5</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Buckley</surname>
<given-names>D</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Bulger</surname>
<given-names>D</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimation of the reproductive number for the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in rural and metropolitan New South Wales</article-title>
<source>Aust J Rural Health</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>19</volume>
<fpage>59</fpage>
<lpage>63</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21438946</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref36"><label>6</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Caley</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Philp</surname>
<given-names>DJ</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>McCracken</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Quantifying social distancing arising from pandemic influenza</article-title>
<source>J R Soc Interface</source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<fpage>631</fpage>
<lpage>9</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">17916550</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref37"><label>7</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Cauchemez</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Bhattarai</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Marchbanks</surname>
<given-names>TL</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Fagan</surname>
<given-names>RP</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ostroff</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ferguson</surname>
<given-names>NM</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Role of social networks in shaping disease transmission during a community outbreak of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza</article-title>
<source>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>108</volume>
<fpage>2825</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21282645</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref38"><label>8</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>SC</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Liao</surname>
<given-names>CM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Probabilistic indoor transmission modeling for influenza (sub) type viruses</article-title>
<source>J Infect</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>60</volume>
<fpage>26</fpage>
<lpage>35</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">19818365</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref39"><label>9</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>SC</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Liao</surname>
<given-names>CM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Cost-effectiveness of influenza control measures: A dynamic transmission model-based analysis</article-title>
<source>Epidemiol Infect</source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>141</volume>
<fpage>2581</fpage>
<lpage>94</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23481024</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref40"><label>10</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>SC</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chio</surname>
<given-names>CP</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Jou</surname>
<given-names>LJ</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Liao</surname>
<given-names>CM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Viral kinetics and exhaled droplet size affect indoor transmission dynamics of influenza infection</article-title>
<source>Indoor Air</source>
<year>2009</year>
<volume>19</volume>
<fpage>401</fpage>
<lpage>13</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">19659895</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref41"><label>11</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>SC</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Hsieh</surname>
<given-names>NH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>You</surname>
<given-names>SH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>CH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Liao</surname>
<given-names>CM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Behavioural response in educated young adults towards influenza A (H1N1) pdm09</article-title>
<source>Epidemiol Infect</source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>143</volume>
<fpage>1846</fpage>
<lpage>57</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">25359684</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref42"><label>12</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>TM</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>QP</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>RC</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Szot</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>SL</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Zhao</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>The transmissibility estimation of influenza with early stage data of small-scale outbreaks in Changsha, China, 2005-2013</article-title>
<source>Epidemiol Infect</source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>145</volume>
<fpage>424</fpage>
<lpage>33</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">27834157</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref43"><label>13</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>T</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>T</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>R</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Xu</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>D</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>F</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmissibility of the influenza virus during influenza outbreaks and related asymptomatic infection in Mainland China, 2005-2013</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<fpage>e0166180</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">27880774</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref44"><label>14</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Cheng</surname>
<given-names>YH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Liao</surname>
<given-names>CM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Modeling control measure effects to reduce indoor transmission of pandemic H1N1 2009 virus</article-title>
<source>Build Environ</source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>63</volume>
<fpage>11</fpage>
<lpage>9</lpage>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref45"><label>15</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Cheng</surname>
<given-names>YH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>CH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>You</surname>
<given-names>SH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Hsieh</surname>
<given-names>NH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>WY</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chio</surname>
<given-names>CP</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Assessing coughing-induced influenza droplet transmission and implications for infection risk control</article-title>
<source>Epidemiol Infect</source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>144</volume>
<fpage>333</fpage>
<lpage>45</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">26211781</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref46"><label>16</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chong</surname>
<given-names>KC</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>X</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Cai</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Su</surname>
<given-names>X</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Zee</surname>
<given-names>BC</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Interpreting the transmissibility of the avian influenza A (H7N9) infection from 2013 to 2015 in Zhejiang province, China</article-title>
<source>Epidemiol Infect</source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>144</volume>
<fpage>1584</fpage>
<lpage>91</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">26645357</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref47"><label>17</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chong</surname>
<given-names>KC</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Zee</surname>
<given-names>BC</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>MH</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>A statistical method utilizing information of imported cases to estimate the transmissibility for an influenza pandemic</article-title>
<source>BMC Med Res Methodol</source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>17</volume>
<fpage>31</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">28222682</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref48"><label>18</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ammon</surname>
<given-names>CE</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Hengartner</surname>
<given-names>NW</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Hyman</surname>
<given-names>JM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland</article-title>
<source>Math Biosci Eng</source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<fpage>457</fpage>
<lpage>70</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">17658935</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref49"><label>19</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Bettencourt</surname>
<given-names>LM</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Johnson</surname>
<given-names>N</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Alonso</surname>
<given-names>WJ</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Viboud</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>The 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and wales: Spatial patterns in transmissibility and mortality impact</article-title>
<source>Proc Biol Sci</source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>275</volume>
<fpage>501</fpage>
<lpage>9</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">18156123</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref50"><label>20</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Diaz-Dueñas</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Miller</surname>
<given-names>JC</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Alcazar-Velazco</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Hyman</surname>
<given-names>JM</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Fenimore</surname>
<given-names>PW</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimation of the reproduction number of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data</article-title>
<source>Math Biosci</source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>208</volume>
<fpage>571</fpage>
<lpage>89</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">17303188</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref51"><label>21</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Nishiura</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Bettencourt</surname>
<given-names>LM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data</article-title>
<source>J R Soc Interface</source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<fpage>155</fpage>
<lpage>66</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">17254982</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref52"><label>22</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Simonsen</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Towers</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Miller</surname>
<given-names>MA</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Viboud</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9, February to May 2013, China</article-title>
<source>BMC Med</source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<fpage>214</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">24083506</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref53"><label>23</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Towers</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Viboud</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Fuentes</surname>
<given-names>R</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Sotomayor</surname>
<given-names>V</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Simonsen</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>The influence of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile</article-title>
<source>BMC Infect Dis</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<fpage>298</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23148597</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref54"><label>24</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Viboud</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Munayco</surname>
<given-names>CV</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Gómez</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Simonsen</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Miller</surname>
<given-names>MA</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Peru</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>6</volume>
<fpage>e21287</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21712984</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref55"><label>25</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Viboud</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Simonsen</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Miller</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Alonso</surname>
<given-names>WJ</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>The reproduction number of seasonal influenza epidemics in Brazil, 1996-2006</article-title>
<source>Proc Biol Sci</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>277</volume>
<fpage>1857</fpage>
<lpage>66</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20150218</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref56"><label>26</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Cowling</surname>
<given-names>BJ</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Lau</surname>
<given-names>MS</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ho</surname>
<given-names>LM</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chuang</surname>
<given-names>SK</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Tsang</surname>
<given-names>T</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>SH</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>The effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: Prospective estimation</article-title>
<source>Epidemiology</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>21</volume>
<fpage>842</fpage>
<lpage>6</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20805752</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref57"><label>27</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Dorigatti</surname>
<given-names>I</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Cauchemez</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Pugliese</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ferguson</surname>
<given-names>NM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>A new approach to characterising infectious disease transmission dynamics from sentinel surveillance: Application to the Italian 2009-2010 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic</article-title>
<source>Epidemics</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<fpage>9</fpage>
<lpage>21</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">22325010</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref58"><label>28</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Earn</surname>
<given-names>DJ</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Andrews</surname>
<given-names>PW</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Bolker</surname>
<given-names>BM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Population-level effects of suppressing fever</article-title>
<source>Proc Biol Sci</source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>281</volume>
<fpage>20132570</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">24452021</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref59"><label>29</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Ejima</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Aihara</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Nishiura</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>The impact of model building on the transmission dynamics under vaccination: Observable (symptom-based) versus unobservable (contagiousness-dependent) approaches</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>8</volume>
<fpage>e62062</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23593507</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref60"><label>30</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Fielding</surname>
<given-names>JE</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Kelly</surname>
<given-names>HA</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Glass</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmission of the first influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 pandemic wave in Australia was driven by undetected infections: Pandemic response implications</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<fpage>e0144331</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">26692335</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref61"><label>31</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Fierro</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Liccardo</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>A simple stochastic lattice gas model for H1N1 pandemic. Application to the Italian epidemiological data</article-title>
<source>Eur Phys J E Soft Matter</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>34</volume>
<fpage>11</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21337015</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref62"><label>32</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Fraser</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Cummings</surname>
<given-names>DA</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Klinkenberg</surname>
<given-names>D</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Burke</surname>
<given-names>DS</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ferguson</surname>
<given-names>NM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Influenza transmission in households during the 1918 pandemic</article-title>
<source>Am J Epidemiol</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>174</volume>
<fpage>505</fpage>
<lpage>14</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21749971</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref63"><label>33</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Furuya</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Risk of transmission of airborne infection during train commute based on mathematical model</article-title>
<source>Environ Health Prev Med</source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<fpage>78</fpage>
<lpage>83</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21431823</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref64"><label>34</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Glass</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Mercer</surname>
<given-names>GN</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Nishiura</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>McBryde</surname>
<given-names>ES</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Becker</surname>
<given-names>NG</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from case data</article-title>
<source>J R Soc Interface</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>8</volume>
<fpage>1248</fpage>
<lpage>59</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21345858</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref65"><label>35</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Gran</surname>
<given-names>JM</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Iversen</surname>
<given-names>B</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Hungnes</surname>
<given-names>O</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Aalen</surname>
<given-names>OO</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimating influenza-related excess mortality and reproduction numbers for seasonal influenza in Norway, 1975-2004</article-title>
<source>Epidemiol Infect</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>138</volume>
<fpage>1559</fpage>
<lpage>68</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20334732</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref66"><label>36</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Gurav</surname>
<given-names>YK</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chadha</surname>
<given-names>MS</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Tandale</surname>
<given-names>BV</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Potdar</surname>
<given-names>VA</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Pawar</surname>
<given-names>SD</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Shil</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 outbreak detected in inter-seasonal months during the surveillance of influenza-like illness in Pune, India, 2012-2015</article-title>
<source>Epidemiol Infect</source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>145</volume>
<fpage>1898</fpage>
<lpage>909</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">28367767</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref67"><label>37</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Haghdoost</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Baneshi</surname>
<given-names>MR</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Zolala</surname>
<given-names>F</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Farvahari</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Safizadeh</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimation of basic reproductive number of flu-like syndrome in a primary school in Iran</article-title>
<source>Int J Prev Med</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<fpage>408</fpage>
<lpage>13</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">22783467</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref68"><label>38</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Hens</surname>
<given-names>N</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Calatayud</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Kurkela</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Tamme</surname>
<given-names>T</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wallinga</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Robust reconstruction and analysis of outbreak data: Influenza A (H1N1) v transmission in a school-based population</article-title>
<source>Am J Epidemiol</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>176</volume>
<fpage>196</fpage>
<lpage>203</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">22791742</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref69"><label>39</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Hens</surname>
<given-names>N</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Van Ranst</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Aerts</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Robesyn</surname>
<given-names>E</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Van Damme</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Beutels</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimating the effective reproduction number for pandemic influenza from notification data made publicly available in real time: A multi-country analysis for influenza A/H1N1v 2009</article-title>
<source>Vaccine</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>29</volume>
<fpage>896</fpage>
<lpage>904</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20580742</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref70"><label>40</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Hsieh</surname>
<given-names>YH</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Age groups and spread of influenza: Implications for vaccination strategy</article-title>
<source>BMC Infect Dis</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<fpage>106</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20429954</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref71"><label>41</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Hsieh</surname>
<given-names>YH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Cheng</surname>
<given-names>KF</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>TN</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>TC</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>CY</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>JH</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmissibility and temporal changes of 2009 pH 1N1 pandemic during summer and fall/winter waves</article-title>
<source>BMC Infect Dis</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<fpage>332</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">22136530</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref72"><label>42</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Hsieh</surname>
<given-names>YH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Fisman</surname>
<given-names>DN</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>On epidemic modeling in real time: An application to the 2009 novel A (H1N1) influenza outbreak in Canada</article-title>
<source>BMC Res Notes</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<fpage>283</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21050494</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref73"><label>43</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Hsieh</surname>
<given-names>YH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Huang</surname>
<given-names>HM</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Lan</surname>
<given-names>YC</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>On temporal patterns and circulation of influenza virus strains in Taiwan, 2008-2014: Implications of 2009 pH 1N1 pandemic</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<fpage>e0154695</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">27139905</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref74"><label>44</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Hsieh</surname>
<given-names>YH</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ma</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Velasco Hernandez</surname>
<given-names>JX</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Lee</surname>
<given-names>VJ</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Lim</surname>
<given-names>WY</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Early outbreak of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico prior to identification of pH 1N1 virus</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>6</volume>
<fpage>e23853</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21909366</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref75"><label>45</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Hsieh</surname>
<given-names>YH</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) during winter influenza season in the Southern hemisphere</article-title>
<source>Influenza Other Respir Viruses</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<fpage>187</fpage>
<lpage>97</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20629772</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref76"><label>46</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Inaba</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Nishiura</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>The state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and its application to the asymptomatic transmission model</article-title>
<source>Math Biosci</source>
<year>2008</year>
<volume>216</volume>
<fpage>77</fpage>
<lpage>89</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">18768142</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref77"><label>47</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Jackson</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Vynnycky</surname>
<given-names>E</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Mangtani</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimates of the transmissibility of the 1968 (Hong Kong) influenza pandemic: Evidence of increased transmissibility between successive waves</article-title>
<source>Am J Epidemiol</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>171</volume>
<fpage>465</fpage>
<lpage>78</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20007674</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref78"><label>48</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Kadi</surname>
<given-names>AS</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Avaradi</surname>
<given-names>SR</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>A bayesian inferential approach to quantify the transmission intensity of disease outbreak</article-title>
<source>Comput Math Methods Med</source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>2015</volume>
<fpage>256319</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">25784956</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref79"><label>49</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Kelly</surname>
<given-names>HA</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Mercer</surname>
<given-names>GN</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Fielding</surname>
<given-names>JE</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Dowse</surname>
<given-names>GK</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Glass</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Carcione</surname>
<given-names>D</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza community transmission was established in one Australian state when the virus was first identified in North America</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<fpage>e11341</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20596536</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref80"><label>50</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Kelso</surname>
<given-names>JK</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Halder</surname>
<given-names>N</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Postma</surname>
<given-names>MJ</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Milne</surname>
<given-names>GJ</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories</article-title>
<source>BMC Public Health</source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>13</volume>
<fpage>211</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23496898</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref81"><label>51</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Kim</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Omori</surname>
<given-names>R</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ito</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Inferring epidemiological dynamics of infectious diseases using Tajima's D statistic on nucleotide sequences of pathogens</article-title>
<source>Epidemics</source>
<year>2017</year>
<volume>21</volume>
<fpage>21</fpage>
<lpage>9</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">28552262</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref82"><label>52</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Kucharski</surname>
<given-names>AJ</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Edmunds</surname>
<given-names>WJ</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Characterizing the transmission potential of zoonotic infections from minor outbreaks</article-title>
<source>PLoS Comput Biol</source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<fpage>e1004154</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">25860289</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref83"><label>53</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Lin</surname>
<given-names>CJ</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Deger</surname>
<given-names>KA</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Tien</surname>
<given-names>JH</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Modeling the trade-off between transmissibility and contact in infectious disease dynamics</article-title>
<source>Math Biosci</source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>277</volume>
<fpage>15</fpage>
<lpage>24</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">27102055</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref84"><label>54</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>R</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Leung</surname>
<given-names>RK</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>T</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>X</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>F</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>The effectiveness of age-specific isolation policies on epidemics of influenza A (H1N1) in a large city in central South China</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<fpage>e0132588</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">26161740</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref85"><label>55</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>W</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Tang</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Xiao</surname>
<given-names>Y</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Model selection and evaluation based on emerging infectious disease data sets including A/H1N1 and Ebola</article-title>
<source>Comput Math Methods Med</source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>2015</volume>
<fpage>207105</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">26451161</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref86"><label>56</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Marquetoux</surname>
<given-names>N</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Paul</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wongnarkpet</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Poolkhet</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Thanapongtharm</surname>
<given-names>W</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Roger</surname>
<given-names>F</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimating spatial and temporal variations of the reproduction number for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 epidemic in Thailand</article-title>
<source>Prev Vet Med</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>106</volume>
<fpage>143</fpage>
<lpage>51</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">22365379</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref87"><label>57</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Massad</surname>
<given-names>E</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Burattini</surname>
<given-names>MN</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Coutinho</surname>
<given-names>FA</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Lopez</surname>
<given-names>LF</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>The 1918 influenza A epidemic in the city of São Paulo, Brazil</article-title>
<source>Med Hypotheses</source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>68</volume>
<fpage>442</fpage>
<lpage>5</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">17011139</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref88"><label>58</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Mathews</surname>
<given-names>JD</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>McBryde</surname>
<given-names>ES</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>McVernon</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Pallaghy</surname>
<given-names>PK</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>McCaw</surname>
<given-names>JM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Prior immunity helps to explain wave-like behaviour of pandemic influenza in 1918-9</article-title>
<source>BMC Infect Dis</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<fpage>128</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20497585</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref89"><label>59</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Meeyai</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Cooper</surname>
<given-names>B</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Coker</surname>
<given-names>R</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Pan-Ngum</surname>
<given-names>W</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Akarasewi</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Iamsirithaworn</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in Thailand</article-title>
<source>WHO South East Asia J Public Health</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>1</volume>
<fpage>59</fpage>
<lpage>68</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">28612779</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref90"><label>60</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Modchang</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Iamsirithaworn</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Auewarakul</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Triampo</surname>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>A modeling study of school closure to reduce influenza transmission: A case study of an influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in a private Thai school</article-title>
<source>Math Comput Model</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>55</volume>
<fpage>1021</fpage>
<lpage>33</lpage>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref91"><label>61</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Mostaço-Guidolin</surname>
<given-names>LC</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Bowman</surname>
<given-names>CS</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Greer</surname>
<given-names>AL</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Fisman</surname>
<given-names>DN</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Moghadas</surname>
<given-names>SM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in remote and isolated Canadian communities: A modelling study</article-title>
<source>BMJ Open</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>2</volume>
<comment>pii: e001614</comment>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref92"><label>62</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Nishiura</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19</article-title>
<source>Theor Biol Med Model</source>
<year>2007</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<fpage>20</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">17547753</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref93"><label>63</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Nishiura</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Safan</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Castillo-Chavez</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009</article-title>
<source>Theor Biol Med Model</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>7</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20056004</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref94"><label>64</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Nishiura</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Mizumoto</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ejima</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>How to interpret the transmissibility of novel influenza A (H7N9): An analysis of initial epidemiological data of human cases from China</article-title>
<source>Theor Biol Med Model</source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>10</volume>
<fpage>30</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23642092</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref95"><label>65</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Nyirenda</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Omori</surname>
<given-names>R</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Tessmer</surname>
<given-names>HL</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Arimura</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ito</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimating the lineage dynamics of human influenza B viruses</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<fpage>e0166107</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">27829058</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref96"><label>66</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Obadia</surname>
<given-names>T</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Haneef</surname>
<given-names>R</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Boëlle</surname>
<given-names>PY</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>The R0 package: A toolbox to estimate reproduction numbers for epidemic outbreaks</article-title>
<source>BMC Med Inform Decis Mak</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>12</volume>
<fpage>147</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23249562</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref97"><label>67</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Pamaran</surname>
<given-names>RR</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Kamigaki</surname>
<given-names>T</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Hewe</surname>
<given-names>TT</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Flores</surname>
<given-names>KM</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Mercado</surname>
<given-names>ES</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Alday</surname>
<given-names>PP</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Epidemiological characterization of influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 cases from 2009 to 2010 in Baguio city, the Philippines</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>8</volume>
<fpage>e79916</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">24244578</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref98"><label>68</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Rizzo</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ajelli</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Merler</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Pugliese</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Barbetta</surname>
<given-names>I</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Salmaso</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the 1918-19 pandemic influenza in florence, Italy</article-title>
<source>Vaccine</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>29</volume>
<issue>Suppl 2</issue>
<fpage>B27</fpage>
<lpage>32</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21757100</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref99"><label>69</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Roberts</surname>
<given-names>MG</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Nishiura</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Early estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: Pandemic influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>6</volume>
<fpage>e17835</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21637342</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref100"><label>70</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Roll</surname>
<given-names>U</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Yaari</surname>
<given-names>R</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Katriel</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Barnea</surname>
<given-names>O</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Stone</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Mendelson</surname>
<given-names>E</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Onset of a pandemic: Characterizing the initial phase of the swine flu (H1N1) epidemic in Israel</article-title>
<source>BMC Infect Dis</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>11</volume>
<fpage>92</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21492430</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref101"><label>71</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Sattenspiel</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Regional patterns of mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Newfoundland</article-title>
<source>Vaccine</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>29</volume>
<issue>Suppl 2</issue>
<fpage>B33</fpage>
<lpage>7</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">21757101</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref102"><label>72</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Sertsou</surname>
<given-names>G</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wilson</surname>
<given-names>N</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Baker</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Nelson</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Roberts</surname>
<given-names>MG</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modelling</article-title>
<source>Theor Biol Med Model</source>
<year>2006</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<fpage>38</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">17137517</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref103"><label>73</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Ali</surname>
<given-names>ST</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Kadi</surname>
<given-names>AS</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ferguson</surname>
<given-names>NM</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmission dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in India: The impact of holiday-related school closure</article-title>
<source>Epidemics</source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<fpage>157</fpage>
<lpage>63</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">24267871</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref104"><label>74</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Shil</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Gurav</surname>
<given-names>YK</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Chadha</surname>
<given-names>MS</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Mishra</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmission dynamics of novel influenza A/H1N1 2009 outbreak in a residential school in India</article-title>
<source>Curr Sci</source>
<year>2011</year>
<volume>100</volume>
<fpage>1177</fpage>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref105"><label>75</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Tan</surname>
<given-names>X</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Yuan</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Zhou</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Zheng</surname>
<given-names>Y</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>F</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Modeling the initial transmission dynamics of influenza A H1N1 in Guangdong province, China</article-title>
<source>Int J Infect Dis</source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>17</volume>
<fpage>e479</fpage>
<lpage>84</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">23276487</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref106"><label>76</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Tang</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Xiao</surname>
<given-names>Y</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Y</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Zhou</surname>
<given-names>Y</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ma</surname>
<given-names>Z</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Community-based measures for mitigating the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in China</article-title>
<source>PLoS One</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>5</volume>
<fpage>e10911</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20585565</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref107"><label>77</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Tang</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Xiao</surname>
<given-names>Y</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Yuan</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Cheke</surname>
<given-names>RA</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Campus quarantine (Fengxiao) for curbing emergent infectious diseases: Lessons from mitigating A/H1N1 in Xi’an, China</article-title>
<source>J Theor Biol</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>295</volume>
<fpage>47</fpage>
<lpage>58</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">22079943</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref108"><label>78</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Truscott</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Fraser</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Hinsley</surname>
<given-names>W</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Cauchemez</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Donnelly</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ghani</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Quantifying the transmissibility of human influenza and its seasonal variation in temperate regions</article-title>
<source>PLoS Curr</source>
<year>2009</year>
<volume>1</volume>
<fpage>RRN1125</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20029663</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref109"><label>79</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Tsukui</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Case-based surveillance of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Maebashi city, Japan</article-title>
<source>Jpn J Infect Dis</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>65</volume>
<fpage>132</fpage>
<lpage>7</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">22446120</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref110"><label>80</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Van Kerckhove</surname>
<given-names>K</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Hens</surname>
<given-names>N</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Edmunds</surname>
<given-names>WJ</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Eames</surname>
<given-names>KT</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>The impact of illness on social networks: Implications for transmission and control of influenza</article-title>
<source>Am J Epidemiol</source>
<year>2013</year>
<volume>178</volume>
<fpage>1655</fpage>
<lpage>62</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">24100954</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref111"><label>81</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Ward</surname>
<given-names>MP</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Maftei</surname>
<given-names>D</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Apostu</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Suru</surname>
<given-names>A</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimation of the basic reproductive number (R0) for epidemic, highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 spread</article-title>
<source>Epidemiol Infect</source>
<year>2009</year>
<volume>137</volume>
<fpage>219</fpage>
<lpage>26</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">18559127</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref112"><label>82</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>White</surname>
<given-names>LF</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wallinga</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Finelli</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Reed</surname>
<given-names>C</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Riley</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Lipsitch</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA</article-title>
<source>Influenza Other Respir Viruses</source>
<year>2009</year>
<volume>3</volume>
<fpage>267</fpage>
<lpage>76</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">19903209</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref113"><label>83</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Xiao</surname>
<given-names>Y</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Sun</surname>
<given-names>X</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Tang</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A (H7N9) infection in Mainland China</article-title>
<source>J Theor Biol</source>
<year>2014</year>
<volume>352</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>5</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">24607746</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref114"><label>84</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Y</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Y</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Fang</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Halloran</surname>
<given-names>ME</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Ma</surname>
<given-names>M</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Liang</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Household transmissibility of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus, China, February to May 2013 and October 2013 to March 2014</article-title>
<source>Euro Surveill</source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>20</volume>
<fpage>21056</fpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">25788253</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref115"><label>85</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Yu</surname>
<given-names>H</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Cauchemez</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Donnelly</surname>
<given-names>CA</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Zhou</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Feng</surname>
<given-names>L</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Xiang</surname>
<given-names>N</given-names>
</name>
<etal></etal>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmission dynamics, border entry screening, and school holidays during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, China</article-title>
<source>Emerg Infect Dis</source>
<year>2012</year>
<volume>18</volume>
<fpage>758</fpage>
<lpage>66</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">22515989</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref116"><label>86</label>
<element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>S</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Yan</surname>
<given-names>P</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Winchester</surname>
<given-names>B</given-names>
</name>
<name><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>J</given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title>Transmissibility of the 1918 pandemic influenza in Montreal and Winnipeg of Canada</article-title>
<source>Influenza Other Respir Viruses</source>
<year>2010</year>
<volume>4</volume>
<fpage>27</fpage>
<lpage>31</lpage>
<pub-id pub-id-type="pmid">20021504</pub-id>
</element-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</pmc>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/H2N2V1/Data/Pmc/Corpus
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000A14 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Pmc/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 000A14 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= H2N2V1 |flux= Pmc |étape= Corpus |type= RBID |clé= |texte= }}
![]() | This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. | ![]() |