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<title xml:lang="en">Lessons from the past: Familial aggregation analysis of fatal pandemic influenza (Spanish flu) in Iceland in 1918</title>
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<name sortKey="Gottfredsson, Magnus" sort="Gottfredsson, Magnus" uniqKey="Gottfredsson M" first="Magnús" last="Gottfredsson">Magnús Gottfredsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Halld Rsson, Bjarni V" sort="Halld Rsson, Bjarni V" uniqKey="Halld Rsson B" first="Bjarni V." last="Halld Rsson">Bjarni V. Halld Rsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
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<author>
<name sortKey="J Nsson, Stefan" sort="J Nsson, Stefan" uniqKey="J Nsson S" first="Stefán" last="J Nsson">Stefán J Nsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Kristjansson, Mar" sort="Kristjansson, Mar" uniqKey="Kristjansson M" first="Már" last="Kristjánsson">Már Kristjánsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kristjansson, Kristleifur" sort="Kristjansson, Kristleifur" uniqKey="Kristjansson K" first="Kristleifur" last="Kristjánsson">Kristleifur Kristjánsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Kristinsson, Karl G" sort="Kristinsson, Karl G" uniqKey="Kristinsson K" first="Karl G." last="Kristinsson">Karl G. Kristinsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
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<author>
<name sortKey="Love, Arthur" sort="Love, Arthur" uniqKey="Love A" first="Arthur" last="Löve">Arthur Löve</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Blondal, Thorsteinn" sort="Blondal, Thorsteinn" uniqKey="Blondal T" first="Thorsteinn" last="Blöndal">Thorsteinn Blöndal</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff4">Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Thorvaldsson, Sverrir" sort="Thorvaldsson, Sverrir" uniqKey="Thorvaldsson S" first="Sverrir" last="Thorvaldsson">Sverrir Thorvaldsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Helgason, Agnar" sort="Helgason, Agnar" uniqKey="Helgason A" first="Agnar" last="Helgason">Agnar Helgason</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Gulcher, Jeffrey R" sort="Gulcher, Jeffrey R" uniqKey="Gulcher J" first="Jeffrey R." last="Gulcher">Jeffrey R. Gulcher</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Stefansson, Kari" sort="Stefansson, Kari" uniqKey="Stefansson K" first="Kári" last="Stefánsson">Kári Stefánsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
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<name sortKey="J Nsd Ttir, Ingileif" sort="J Nsd Ttir, Ingileif" uniqKey="J Nsd Ttir I" first="Ingileif" last="J Nsd Ttir">Ingileif J Nsd Ttir</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
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<title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Lessons from the past: Familial aggregation analysis of fatal pandemic influenza (Spanish flu) in Iceland in 1918</title>
<author>
<name sortKey="Gottfredsson, Magnus" sort="Gottfredsson, Magnus" uniqKey="Gottfredsson M" first="Magnús" last="Gottfredsson">Magnús Gottfredsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Halld Rsson, Bjarni V" sort="Halld Rsson, Bjarni V" uniqKey="Halld Rsson B" first="Bjarni V." last="Halld Rsson">Bjarni V. Halld Rsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="J Nsson, Stefan" sort="J Nsson, Stefan" uniqKey="J Nsson S" first="Stefán" last="J Nsson">Stefán J Nsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kristjansson, Mar" sort="Kristjansson, Mar" uniqKey="Kristjansson M" first="Már" last="Kristjánsson">Már Kristjánsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kristjansson, Kristleifur" sort="Kristjansson, Kristleifur" uniqKey="Kristjansson K" first="Kristleifur" last="Kristjánsson">Kristleifur Kristjánsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kristinsson, Karl G" sort="Kristinsson, Karl G" uniqKey="Kristinsson K" first="Karl G." last="Kristinsson">Karl G. Kristinsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Love, Arthur" sort="Love, Arthur" uniqKey="Love A" first="Arthur" last="Löve">Arthur Löve</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Blondal, Thorsteinn" sort="Blondal, Thorsteinn" uniqKey="Blondal T" first="Thorsteinn" last="Blöndal">Thorsteinn Blöndal</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff4">Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Thorvaldsson, Sverrir" sort="Thorvaldsson, Sverrir" uniqKey="Thorvaldsson S" first="Sverrir" last="Thorvaldsson">Sverrir Thorvaldsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Helgason, Agnar" sort="Helgason, Agnar" uniqKey="Helgason A" first="Agnar" last="Helgason">Agnar Helgason</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Gulcher, Jeffrey R" sort="Gulcher, Jeffrey R" uniqKey="Gulcher J" first="Jeffrey R." last="Gulcher">Jeffrey R. Gulcher</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Stefansson, Kari" sort="Stefansson, Kari" uniqKey="Stefansson K" first="Kári" last="Stefánsson">Kári Stefánsson</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="J Nsd Ttir, Ingileif" sort="J Nsd Ttir, Ingileif" uniqKey="J Nsd Ttir I" first="Ingileif" last="J Nsd Ttir">Ingileif J Nsd Ttir</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="aff2">Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff3">deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series>
<title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2008">2008</date>
</imprint>
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<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>The pandemic influenza of 1918 (Spanish flu) killed 21–50 million people globally, including in Iceland, where the characteristics and spread of the epidemic were well documented. It has been postulated that genetic host factors may have contributed to this high mortality. We identified 455 individuals who died of the Spanish flu in Iceland during a 6-week period during the winter of 1918, representing >92% of all fatal domestic cases mentioned by historical accounts. The highest case fatality proportion was 2.8%, and peak excess mortality was 162/100,000/week. Fatality proportions were highest among infants, young adults, and the elderly. A genealogical database was used to study relatedness and relative risk (RR) of the fatal influenza victims and relatives of their unaffected mates. The significance of these RR computations was assessed by drawing samples randomly from the genealogical database matched for age, sex, and geographical distribution. Familial aggregation of fatalities was seen, with RRs for death ranging from 3.75 for first-degree relatives (
<italic>P</italic>
< 0.0001) to 1.82 (
<italic>P</italic>
= 0.005), 1.12 (
<italic>P</italic>
= 0.252), and 1.47 (
<italic>P</italic>
= 0.0001) for second- to fourth-degree relatives of fatal influenza victims, respectively. The RRs within the families of unaffected mates of fatal influenza victims were 2.95 (
<italic>P</italic>
< 0.0001), 1.27 (
<italic>P</italic>
= 0.267), 1.35 (
<italic>P</italic>
= 0.04), and 1.42 (
<italic>P</italic>
= 0.001), for first- to fourth-degree relatives, respectively. In conclusion, the risk of death from the Spanish flu was similar within families of patients who succumbed to the illness and within families of their mates who survived. Our data do not provide conclusive evidence for the role of genetic factors in susceptibility to the Spanish flu.</p>
</div>
</front>
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<pmc article-type="research-article">
<pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">pnas</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">pnas</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">PNAS</journal-id>
<journal-title>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</journal-title>
<issn pub-type="ppub">0027-8424</issn>
<issn pub-type="epub">1091-6490</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>National Academy of Sciences</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmid">18216264</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2234133</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">8920</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1073/pnas.0707659105</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Biological Sciences</subject>
<subj-group>
<subject>Medical Sciences</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
<series-title>From the Cover</series-title>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Lessons from the past: Familial aggregation analysis of fatal pandemic influenza (Spanish flu) in Iceland in 1918</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Gottfredsson</surname>
<given-names>Magnús</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">*</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup></sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">
<sup></sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Halldórsson</surname>
<given-names>Bjarni V.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>§</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Jónsson</surname>
<given-names>Stefán</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>§</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="FN1">
<sup></sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Kristjánsson</surname>
<given-names>Már</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">*</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Kristjánsson</surname>
<given-names>Kristleifur</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>§</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Kristinsson</surname>
<given-names>Karl G.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">*</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup></sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Löve</surname>
<given-names>Arthur</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">*</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup></sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Blöndal</surname>
<given-names>Thorsteinn</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">*</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Viboud</surname>
<given-names>Cécile</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup></sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Thorvaldsson</surname>
<given-names>Sverrir</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>§</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Helgason</surname>
<given-names>Agnar</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup></sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>§</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Gulcher</surname>
<given-names>Jeffrey R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>§</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Stefánsson</surname>
<given-names>Kári</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup></sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>§</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Jónsdóttir</surname>
<given-names>Ingileif</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">*</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup></sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>§</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">
<sup></sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="aff1">*Landspitali University Hospital, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland;</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<sup></sup>
Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland;</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<sup>§</sup>
deCODE Genetics, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland; and</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<sup></sup>
Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892</aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1">
<sup></sup>
To whom correspondence may be addressed. E-mail:
<email>magnusgo@landspitali.is</email>
or
<email>ingileif.jonsdottir@decode.is</email>
</corresp>
<fn fn-type="edited-by">
<p>Edited by Burton H. Singer, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, and approved November 21, 2007</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="con">
<p>Author contributions: M.G., B.V.H., K.S., and I.J. designed research; M.G. and B.V.H. performed research; M.G., B.V.H., C.V., A.H., K.S., and I.J. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; M.G., B.V.H., S.J., C.V., S.T., A.H., and I.J. analyzed data; and M.G., B.V.H., S.J., M.K., K.K., K.G.K., A.L., T.B., C.V., A.H., J.R.G., K.S., and I.J. wrote the paper.</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="deceased" id="FN1">
<p>
<sup></sup>
Deceased July 27, 2007.</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="conflict">
<p>The authors declare no conflict of interest.</p>
</fn>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub">
<day>29</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2008</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>23</day>
<month>1</month>
<year>2008</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>105</volume>
<issue>4</issue>
<fpage>1303</fpage>
<lpage>1308</lpage>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>14</day>
<month>8</month>
<year>2007</year>
</date>
</history>
<copyright-statement>© 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2008</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<p>Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.</p>
</license>
<self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="zpq00408001303.pdf"></self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The pandemic influenza of 1918 (Spanish flu) killed 21–50 million people globally, including in Iceland, where the characteristics and spread of the epidemic were well documented. It has been postulated that genetic host factors may have contributed to this high mortality. We identified 455 individuals who died of the Spanish flu in Iceland during a 6-week period during the winter of 1918, representing >92% of all fatal domestic cases mentioned by historical accounts. The highest case fatality proportion was 2.8%, and peak excess mortality was 162/100,000/week. Fatality proportions were highest among infants, young adults, and the elderly. A genealogical database was used to study relatedness and relative risk (RR) of the fatal influenza victims and relatives of their unaffected mates. The significance of these RR computations was assessed by drawing samples randomly from the genealogical database matched for age, sex, and geographical distribution. Familial aggregation of fatalities was seen, with RRs for death ranging from 3.75 for first-degree relatives (
<italic>P</italic>
< 0.0001) to 1.82 (
<italic>P</italic>
= 0.005), 1.12 (
<italic>P</italic>
= 0.252), and 1.47 (
<italic>P</italic>
= 0.0001) for second- to fourth-degree relatives of fatal influenza victims, respectively. The RRs within the families of unaffected mates of fatal influenza victims were 2.95 (
<italic>P</italic>
< 0.0001), 1.27 (
<italic>P</italic>
= 0.267), 1.35 (
<italic>P</italic>
= 0.04), and 1.42 (
<italic>P</italic>
= 0.001), for first- to fourth-degree relatives, respectively. In conclusion, the risk of death from the Spanish flu was similar within families of patients who succumbed to the illness and within families of their mates who survived. Our data do not provide conclusive evidence for the role of genetic factors in susceptibility to the Spanish flu.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>heritability</kwd>
<kwd>host factors</kwd>
<kwd>medical history</kwd>
<kwd>mortality</kwd>
<kwd>transmission</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
</pmc>
</record>

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