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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">School opening dates predict pandemic influenza A (H1N1) epidemics in the USA</title><author><name sortKey="Chao, Dennis L" sort="Chao, Dennis L" uniqKey="Chao D" first="Dennis L." last="Chao">Dennis L. Chao</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M. Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M. Elizabeth Halloran</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M." last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">20704486</idno><idno type="pmc">2939723</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2939723</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2939723</idno><idno type="doi">10.1086/655810</idno><date when="2010">2010</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000536</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000536</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">School opening dates predict pandemic influenza A (H1N1) epidemics in the USA</title><author><name sortKey="Chao, Dennis L" sort="Chao, Dennis L" uniqKey="Chao D" first="Dennis L." last="Chao">Dennis L. Chao</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M. Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M. Elizabeth Halloran</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M." last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">The Journal of infectious diseases</title><idno type="ISSN">0022-1899</idno><idno type="eISSN">1537-6613</idno><imprint><date when="2010">2010</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="P1">The opening of schools in late summer of 2009 may have triggered the fall wave of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in the United States. We found that elevated percent of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI%) occurred an average of 14 days after schools opened in a state in the fall of 2009. The timing of these events was highly correlated (Spearman’s correlation coefficient=0.62, <italic>p</italic> < 1.0 × 10<sup>−5</sup>). This result provides evidence that transmission in schools catalyzes community-wide transmission. School opening dates can be useful for future pandemic planning, and influenza mitigation strategies should be targeted at school populations before the influenza season.</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article" xml:lang="EN"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<pmc-dir>properties manuscript</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-journal-id">0413675</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pubmed-jr-id">4830</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">J Infect Dis</journal-id><journal-title>The Journal of infectious diseases</journal-title><issn pub-type="ppub">0022-1899</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1537-6613</issn></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">20704486</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2939723</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1086/655810</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="manuscript">NIHMS214752</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>School opening dates predict pandemic influenza A (H1N1) epidemics in the USA</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chao</surname><given-names>Dennis L.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Halloran</surname><given-names>M. Elizabeth</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Longini</surname><given-names>Ira M.</given-names><suffix>Jr.</suffix></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="A1"><label>1</label>Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</aff><aff id="A2"><label>2</label>Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</aff><author-notes><corresp id="CR1"><bold>Corresponding author:</bold> Dennis L. Chao., Center Stat. & Quant. Infect. Dis. (CSQUID), Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, M2-B167, Seattle, WA 98109-1024, USA, <email>dchao@fhcrc.org</email>, Phone: 206-667-1186, Fax: 206-667-4378</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="nihms-submitted"><day>1</day><month>7</month><year>2010</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>15</day><month>9</month><year>2010</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>15</day><month>9</month><year>2011</year></pub-date><volume>202</volume><issue>6</issue><fpage>877</fpage><lpage>880</lpage><abstract><p id="P1">The opening of schools in late summer of 2009 may have triggered the fall wave of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in the United States. We found that elevated percent of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI%) occurred an average of 14 days after schools opened in a state in the fall of 2009. The timing of these events was highly correlated (Spearman’s correlation coefficient=0.62, <italic>p</italic> < 1.0 × 10<sup>−5</sup>). This result provides evidence that transmission in schools catalyzes community-wide transmission. School opening dates can be useful for future pandemic planning, and influenza mitigation strategies should be targeted at school populations before the influenza season.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>Children</kwd><kwd>Epidemics</kwd><kwd>Human Influenza</kwd><kwd>Pandemics</kwd></kwd-group><contract-num rid="GM1">U01 GM070749-01
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