Real-Time Epidemic Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore
Identifieur interne : 000524 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 000523; suivant : 000525Real-Time Epidemic Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore
Auteurs : Jimmy Boon Som Ong [Singapour] ; Mark I-Cheng Chen [Singapour] ; Alex R. Cook [Singapour] ; Huey Chyi Lee [Singapour] ; Vernon J. Lee [Singapour, Australie] ; Raymond Tzer Pin Lin [Singapour] ; Paul Ananth Tambyah [Singapour] ; Lee Gan Goh [Singapour]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2010.
Abstract
Reporting of influenza-like illness (ILI) from general practice/family doctor (GPFD) clinics is an accurate indicator of real-time epidemic activity and requires little effort to set up, making it suitable for developing countries currently experiencing the influenza A (H1N1 -2009) pandemic or preparing for subsequent epidemic waves.
We established a network of GPFDs in Singapore. Participating GPFDs submitted returns via facsimile or e-mail on their work days using a simple, standard data collection format, capturing: gender; year of birth; “ethnicity”; residential status; body temperature (°C); and treatment (antiviral or not); for all cases with a clinical diagnosis of an acute respiratory illness (ARI). The operational definition of ILI in this study was an ARI with fever of 37.8°C or more. The data were processed daily by the study co-ordinator and fed into a stochastic model of disease dynamics, which was refitted daily using particle filtering, with data and forecasts uploaded to a website which could be publicly accessed. Twenty-three GPFD clinics agreed to participate. Data collection started on 2009-06-26 and lasted for the duration of the epidemic. The epidemic appeared to have peaked around 2009-08-03 and the ILI rates had returned to baseline levels by the time of writing.
This real-time surveillance system is able to show the progress of an epidemic and indicates when the peak is reached. The resulting information can be used to form forecasts, including how soon the epidemic wave will end and when a second wave will appear if at all.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0010036
PubMed: 20418945
PubMed Central: 2854682
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Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore</title><author><name sortKey="Ong, Jimmy Boon Som" sort="Ong, Jimmy Boon Som" uniqKey="Ong J" first="Jimmy Boon Som" last="Ong">Jimmy Boon Som Ong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Singapour</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Singapore</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Mark I Cheng" sort="Chen, Mark I Cheng" uniqKey="Chen M" first="Mark I-Cheng" last="Chen">Mark I-Cheng Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></nlm:aff><country 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Cook</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><addr-line>Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Singapour</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore, Singapore</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université nationale de Singapour</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Huey Chyi" sort="Lee, Huey Chyi" uniqKey="Lee H" first="Huey Chyi" last="Lee">Huey Chyi Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff4"><addr-line>Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Singapour</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore, Singapore</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université nationale de Singapour</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Vernon J" sort="Lee, Vernon J" uniqKey="Lee V" first="Vernon J." last="Lee">Vernon J. Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Singapour</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université nationale de Singapour</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5"><addr-line>Biodefence Centre, Ministry of Defence, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Singapour</country><wicri:regionArea>Biodefence Centre, Ministry of Defence, Singapore</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Singapore</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6"><addr-line>National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Canberra</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lin, Raymond Tzer Pin" sort="Lin, Raymond Tzer Pin" uniqKey="Lin R" first="Raymond Tzer Pin" last="Lin">Raymond Tzer Pin Lin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff7"><addr-line>National Public Health Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Singapour</country><wicri:regionArea>National Public Health Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Singapore</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Singapore</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tambyah, Paul Ananth" sort="Tambyah, Paul Ananth" uniqKey="Tambyah P" first="Paul Ananth" last="Tambyah">Paul Ananth Tambyah</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8"><addr-line>Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Singapour</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Singapore</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goh, Lee Gan" sort="Goh, Lee Gan" uniqKey="Goh L" first="Lee Gan" last="Goh">Lee Gan Goh</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8"><addr-line>Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Singapour</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Singapore</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff9"><addr-line>College of Family Physicians, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Singapour</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Family Physicians, Singapore</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Singapore</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2010">2010</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>Reporting of influenza-like illness (ILI) from general practice/family doctor (GPFD) clinics is an accurate indicator of real-time epidemic activity and requires little effort to set up, making it suitable for developing countries currently experiencing the influenza A (H1N1 -2009) pandemic or preparing for subsequent epidemic waves.</p></sec><sec><title>Methodology/Principal Findings</title><p>We established a network of GPFDs in Singapore. Participating GPFDs submitted returns via facsimile or e-mail on their work days using a simple, standard data collection format, capturing: gender; year of birth; “ethnicity”; residential status; body temperature (°C); and treatment (antiviral or not); for all cases with a clinical diagnosis of an acute respiratory illness (ARI). The operational definition of ILI in this study was an ARI with fever of 37.8°C or more. The data were processed daily by the study co-ordinator and fed into a stochastic model of disease dynamics, which was refitted daily using particle filtering, with data and forecasts uploaded to a website which could be publicly accessed. Twenty-three GPFD clinics agreed to participate. Data collection started on 2009-06-26 and lasted for the duration of the epidemic. The epidemic appeared to have peaked around 2009-08-03 and the ILI rates had returned to baseline levels by the time of writing.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions/Significance</title><p>This real-time surveillance system is able to show the progress of an epidemic and indicates when the peak is reached. The resulting information can be used to form forecasts, including how soon the epidemic wave will end and when a second wave will appear if at all.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lee, Vj" uniqKey="Lee V">VJ Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Mi" uniqKey="Chen M">MI Chen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chan, Sp" uniqKey="Chan S">SP Chan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, Cs" uniqKey="Wong C">CS Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cutter, J" uniqKey="Cutter J">J Cutter</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lee, Vj" uniqKey="Lee V">VJ Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, Cs" uniqKey="Wong C">CS Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tambyah, Pa" uniqKey="Tambyah P">PA Tambyah</name></author><author><name 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS One</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS ONE</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosone</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS ONE</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1932-6203</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name><publisher-loc>San Francisco, USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">20418945</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2854682</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">09-PONE-RA-12778R2</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0010036</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline"><subject>Mathematics/Statistics</subject><subject>Infectious Diseases/Epidemiology and Control of Infectious Diseases</subject><subject>Infectious Diseases/Respiratory Infections</subject><subject>Public Health and Epidemiology/Infectious Diseases</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Real-Time Epidemic Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">H1N1 Monitoring in Singapore</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Ong</surname><given-names>Jimmy Boon Som</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chen</surname><given-names>Mark I-Cheng</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cook</surname><given-names>Alex R.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>4</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lee</surname><given-names>Huey Chyi</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>4</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lee</surname><given-names>Vernon J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>5</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6"><sup>6</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lin</surname><given-names>Raymond Tzer Pin</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7"><sup>7</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tambyah</surname><given-names>Paul Ananth</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8"><sup>8</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Goh</surname><given-names>Lee Gan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8"><sup>8</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9"><sup>9</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><addr-line>Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><addr-line>Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff4"><label>4</label><addr-line>Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff5"><label>5</label><addr-line>Biodefence Centre, Ministry of Defence, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff6"><label>6</label><addr-line>National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff7"><label>7</label><addr-line>National Public Health Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff8"><label>8</label><addr-line>Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff9"><label>9</label><addr-line>College of Family Physicians, Singapore, Singapore</addr-line></aff><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Yang</surname><given-names>Yang</given-names></name><role>Editor</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="edit1">Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, United States of America</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail: <email>stacar@nus.edu.sg</email></corresp><fn fn-type="con"><p>Conceived and designed the experiments: JO MIC ARC VJL LGG. Performed the experiments: JO MIC. Analyzed the data: ARC HCL. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: ARC HCL. Wrote the paper: JO MIC ARC HCL VJL RTPL PT LGG. Set up the surveillance network: ARC. Wrote the statistical software used to form predictions: ARC HCL. Wrote the software that automated the procedures: ARC JO. Contributed to writing the paper: ARC JO HCL. Set up the network: JO MC VL LGG. Managed the running of the project: JO. Devised the model used in predictions: ARC MC HCL. Provided medical and epidemiological insight, and contributed to writing the paper: MC VL LGG. Provided medical, epidemiological and national policy insights and contributed to writing the paper: RTPL PAT.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2010</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>14</day><month>4</month><year>2010</year></pub-date><volume>5</volume><issue>4</issue><elocation-id>e10036</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>9</day><month>9</month><year>2009</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>15</day><month>3</month><year>2010</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>Ong et al.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2010</copyright-year><license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><sec><title>Background</title><p>Reporting of influenza-like illness (ILI) from general practice/family doctor (GPFD) clinics is an accurate indicator of real-time epidemic activity and requires little effort to set up, making it suitable for developing countries currently experiencing the influenza A (H1N1 -2009) pandemic or preparing for subsequent epidemic waves.</p></sec><sec><title>Methodology/Principal Findings</title><p>We established a network of GPFDs in Singapore. Participating GPFDs submitted returns via facsimile or e-mail on their work days using a simple, standard data collection format, capturing: gender; year of birth; “ethnicity”; residential status; body temperature (°C); and treatment (antiviral or not); for all cases with a clinical diagnosis of an acute respiratory illness (ARI). The operational definition of ILI in this study was an ARI with fever of 37.8°C or more. The data were processed daily by the study co-ordinator and fed into a stochastic model of disease dynamics, which was refitted daily using particle filtering, with data and forecasts uploaded to a website which could be publicly accessed. Twenty-three GPFD clinics agreed to participate. Data collection started on 2009-06-26 and lasted for the duration of the epidemic. The epidemic appeared to have peaked around 2009-08-03 and the ILI rates had returned to baseline levels by the time of writing.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions/Significance</title><p>This real-time surveillance system is able to show the progress of an epidemic and indicates when the peak is reached. The resulting information can be used to form forecasts, including how soon the epidemic wave will end and when a second wave will appear if at all.</p></sec></abstract><counts><page-count count="11"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>Singapour</li></country><orgName><li>Université nationale de Singapour</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Singapour"><noRegion><name sortKey="Ong, Jimmy Boon Som" sort="Ong, Jimmy Boon Som" uniqKey="Ong J" first="Jimmy Boon Som" last="Ong">Jimmy Boon Som Ong</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Chen, Mark I Cheng" sort="Chen, Mark I Cheng" uniqKey="Chen M" first="Mark I-Cheng" last="Chen">Mark I-Cheng Chen</name><name sortKey="Chen, Mark I Cheng" sort="Chen, Mark I Cheng" uniqKey="Chen M" first="Mark I-Cheng" last="Chen">Mark I-Cheng Chen</name><name sortKey="Chen, Mark I Cheng" sort="Chen, Mark I Cheng" uniqKey="Chen M" first="Mark I-Cheng" last="Chen">Mark I-Cheng Chen</name><name sortKey="Cook, Alex R" sort="Cook, Alex R" uniqKey="Cook A" first="Alex R." last="Cook">Alex R. Cook</name><name sortKey="Goh, Lee Gan" sort="Goh, Lee Gan" uniqKey="Goh L" first="Lee Gan" last="Goh">Lee Gan Goh</name><name sortKey="Goh, Lee Gan" sort="Goh, Lee Gan" uniqKey="Goh L" first="Lee Gan" last="Goh">Lee Gan Goh</name><name sortKey="Lee, Huey Chyi" sort="Lee, Huey Chyi" uniqKey="Lee H" first="Huey Chyi" last="Lee">Huey Chyi Lee</name><name sortKey="Lee, Vernon J" sort="Lee, Vernon J" uniqKey="Lee V" first="Vernon J." last="Lee">Vernon J. Lee</name><name sortKey="Lee, Vernon J" sort="Lee, Vernon J" uniqKey="Lee V" first="Vernon J." last="Lee">Vernon J. Lee</name><name sortKey="Lin, Raymond Tzer Pin" sort="Lin, Raymond Tzer Pin" uniqKey="Lin R" first="Raymond Tzer Pin" last="Lin">Raymond Tzer Pin Lin</name><name sortKey="Tambyah, Paul Ananth" sort="Tambyah, Paul Ananth" uniqKey="Tambyah P" first="Paul Ananth" last="Tambyah">Paul Ananth Tambyah</name></country><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Lee, Vernon J" sort="Lee, Vernon J" uniqKey="Lee V" first="Vernon J." last="Lee">Vernon J. Lee</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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