Estimates of the Transmissibility of the 1968 (Hong Kong) Influenza Pandemic: Evidence of Increased Transmissibility Between Successive Waves
Identifieur interne : 000453 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 000452; suivant : 000454Estimates of the Transmissibility of the 1968 (Hong Kong) Influenza Pandemic: Evidence of Increased Transmissibility Between Successive Waves
Auteurs : Charlotte Jackson ; Emilia Vynnycky ; Punam MangtaniSource :
- American Journal of Epidemiology [ 0002-9262 ] ; 2009.
Abstract
The transmissibility of the strain of influenza virus which caused the 1968 influenza pandemic is poorly understood. Increases in outbreak size between the first and second waves suggest that it may even have increased between successive waves. The authors estimated basic and effective reproduction numbers for both waves of the 1968 influenza pandemic. Epidemic curves and overall attack rates for the 1968 pandemic, based on clinical and serologic data, were retrieved from published literature. The basic and effective reproduction numbers were estimated from 46 and 17 data sets for the first and second waves, respectively, based on the growth rate and/or final size of the epidemic. Estimates of the basic reproduction number (
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DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwp394
PubMed: 20007674
PubMed Central: 2816729
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Estimates of the Transmissibility of the 1968 (Hong Kong) Influenza Pandemic: Evidence of Increased Transmissibility Between Successive Waves</title><author><name sortKey="Jackson, Charlotte" sort="Jackson, Charlotte" uniqKey="Jackson C" first="Charlotte" last="Jackson">Charlotte Jackson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Vynnycky, Emilia" sort="Vynnycky, Emilia" uniqKey="Vynnycky E" first="Emilia" last="Vynnycky">Emilia Vynnycky</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mangtani, Punam" sort="Mangtani, Punam" uniqKey="Mangtani P" first="Punam" last="Mangtani">Punam Mangtani</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">20007674</idno><idno type="pmc">2816729</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2816729</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2816729</idno><idno type="doi">10.1093/aje/kwp394</idno><date when="2009">2009</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000897</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000897</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000897</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000897</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000A62</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000A62</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000453</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Estimates of the Transmissibility of the 1968 (Hong Kong) Influenza Pandemic: Evidence of Increased Transmissibility Between Successive Waves</title><author><name sortKey="Jackson, Charlotte" sort="Jackson, Charlotte" uniqKey="Jackson C" first="Charlotte" last="Jackson">Charlotte Jackson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Vynnycky, Emilia" sort="Vynnycky, Emilia" uniqKey="Vynnycky E" first="Emilia" last="Vynnycky">Emilia Vynnycky</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mangtani, Punam" sort="Mangtani, Punam" uniqKey="Mangtani P" first="Punam" last="Mangtani">Punam Mangtani</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">American Journal of Epidemiology</title><idno type="ISSN">0002-9262</idno><idno type="eISSN">1476-6256</idno><imprint><date when="2009">2009</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The transmissibility of the strain of influenza virus which caused the 1968 influenza pandemic is poorly understood. Increases in outbreak size between the first and second waves suggest that it may even have increased between successive waves. The authors estimated basic and effective reproduction numbers for both waves of the 1968 influenza pandemic. Epidemic curves and overall attack rates for the 1968 pandemic, based on clinical and serologic data, were retrieved from published literature. The basic and effective reproduction numbers were estimated from 46 and 17 data sets for the first and second waves, respectively, based on the growth rate and/or final size of the epidemic. Estimates of the basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>) were in the range of 1.06–2.06 for the first wave and, assuming cross-protection, 1.21–3.58 in the second. Within each wave, there was little geographic variation in transmissibility. In the 10 settings for which data were available for both waves, <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> was estimated to be higher during the second wave than during the first. This might partly explain the larger outbreaks in the second wave as compared with the first. This potential for change in viral behavior may have consequences for future pandemic mitigation strategies.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Taylor, Mp" uniqKey="Taylor M">MP Taylor</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Miller, Dl" uniqKey="Miller D">DL Miller</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pereira, Ms" uniqKey="Pereira M">MS Pereira</name></author><author><name sortKey="Clarke, M" uniqKey="Clarke M">M Clarke</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Miller, Dl" uniqKey="Miller D">DL Miller</name></author><author><name sortKey="Reid, D" uniqKey="Reid D">D Reid</name></author><author><name sortKey="Daimond, Jr" uniqKey="Daimond J">JR Daimond</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Candeias, Ja" uniqKey="Candeias J">JA Candeias</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pereira, Ms" 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Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Eubank, S" uniqKey="Eubank S">S Eubank</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Ca" uniqKey="Donnelly C">CA Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hope Simpson, Re" uniqKey="Hope Simpson R">RE Hope-Simpson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Am J Epidemiol</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">amjepid</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">aje</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>American Journal of Epidemiology</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0002-9262</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1476-6256</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Oxford University Press</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">20007674</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2816729</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1093/aje/kwp394</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Original Contributions</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Estimates of the Transmissibility of the 1968 (Hong Kong) Influenza Pandemic: Evidence of Increased Transmissibility Between Successive Waves</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Jackson</surname><given-names>Charlotte</given-names></name><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Vynnycky</surname><given-names>Emilia</given-names></name></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Mangtani</surname><given-names>Punam</given-names></name></contrib></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><label>*</label>Correspondence to Charlotte Jackson, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom (e-mail: <email>charlotte.jackson@lshtm.ac.uk</email>).</corresp><fn><p><bold><italic>Editor's note</italic></bold><italic>: Reference 54 is cited in the legend of Web Figure 3</italic> (<italic><ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/">http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/</ext-link></italic>).</p></fn></author-notes><pmc-comment>Fake ppub date generated by PMC from publisher pub-date/@pub-type='epub-ppub' </pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>15</day><month>2</month><year>2010</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>10</day><month>12</month><year>2009</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>10</day><month>12</month><year>2009</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on the
<volume>171</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>465</fpage><lpage>478</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>8</day><month>5</month><year>2009</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>5</day><month>11</month><year>2009</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>American Journal of Epidemiology © The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2010</copyright-year><license license-type="open-access"><license-p><pmc-comment>CREATIVE COMMONS</pmc-comment>This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5</ext-link>), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>The transmissibility of the strain of influenza virus which caused the 1968 influenza pandemic is poorly understood. Increases in outbreak size between the first and second waves suggest that it may even have increased between successive waves. The authors estimated basic and effective reproduction numbers for both waves of the 1968 influenza pandemic. Epidemic curves and overall attack rates for the 1968 pandemic, based on clinical and serologic data, were retrieved from published literature. The basic and effective reproduction numbers were estimated from 46 and 17 data sets for the first and second waves, respectively, based on the growth rate and/or final size of the epidemic. Estimates of the basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>) were in the range of 1.06–2.06 for the first wave and, assuming cross-protection, 1.21–3.58 in the second. Within each wave, there was little geographic variation in transmissibility. In the 10 settings for which data were available for both waves, <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> was estimated to be higher during the second wave than during the first. This might partly explain the larger outbreaks in the second wave as compared with the first. This potential for change in viral behavior may have consequences for future pandemic mitigation strategies.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>basic reproduction number</kwd><kwd>disease outbreaks</kwd><kwd>influenza, human</kwd><kwd>models, theoretical</kwd><kwd>Orthomyxoviridae</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Jackson, Charlotte" sort="Jackson, Charlotte" uniqKey="Jackson C" first="Charlotte" last="Jackson">Charlotte Jackson</name><name sortKey="Mangtani, Punam" sort="Mangtani, Punam" uniqKey="Mangtani P" first="Punam" last="Mangtani">Punam Mangtani</name><name sortKey="Vynnycky, Emilia" sort="Vynnycky, Emilia" uniqKey="Vynnycky E" first="Emilia" last="Vynnycky">Emilia Vynnycky</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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