Quantifying predictors for the spatial diffusion of avian influenza virus in China
Identifieur interne : 000D41 ( Ncbi/Curation ); précédent : 000D40; suivant : 000D42Quantifying predictors for the spatial diffusion of avian influenza virus in China
Auteurs : Lu Lu [Royaume-Uni] ; Andrew J. Leigh Brown [Royaume-Uni] ; Samantha J. Lycett [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- BMC Evolutionary Biology [ 1471-2148 ] ; 2017.
Abstract
Avian influenza virus (AIV) causes both severe outbreaks and endemic disease among poultry and has caused sporadic human infections in Asia, furthermore the routes of transmission in avian species between geographic regions can be numerous and complex. Using nucleotide sequences from the internal protein coding segments of AIV, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic study to uncover regional routes of transmission and factors predictive of the rate of viral diffusion within China.
We found that the Central area and Pan-Pearl River Delta were the two main sources of AIV diffusion, while the East Coast areas especially the Yangtze River delta, were the major targets of viral invasion. Next we investigated the extent to which economic, agricultural, environmental and climatic regional data was predictive of viral diffusion by fitting phylogeographic discrete trait models using generalised linear models.
Our results highlighted that the economic-agricultural predictors, especially the poultry population density and the number of farm product markets, are the key determinants of spatial diffusion of AIV in China; high human density and freight transportation are also important predictors of high rates of viral transmission; Climate features (e.g. temperature) were correlated to the viral invasion in the destination to some degree; while little or no impacts were found from natural environment factors (such as surface water coverage). This study uncovers the risk factors and enhances our understanding of the spatial dynamics of AIV in bird populations.
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-016-0845-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/s12862-016-0845-3
PubMed: 28086751
PubMed Central: 5237338
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Quantifying predictors for the spatial diffusion of avian influenza virus in China</title><author><name sortKey="Lu, Lu" sort="Lu, Lu" uniqKey="Lu L" first="Lu" last="Lu">Lu Lu</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">Institute of Evolutionary Biology, Ashworth Laboratories, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JT UK</nlm:aff><orgName type="university">Université d'Édimbourg</orgName><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Édimbourg</settlement><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leigh Brown, Andrew J" sort="Leigh Brown, Andrew J" uniqKey="Leigh Brown A" first="Andrew J." last="Leigh Brown">Andrew J. Leigh Brown</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">Institute of Evolutionary Biology, Ashworth Laboratories, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JT UK</nlm:aff><orgName type="university">Université d'Édimbourg</orgName><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Édimbourg</settlement><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lycett, Samantha J" sort="Lycett, Samantha J" uniqKey="Lycett S" first="Samantha J." last="Lycett">Samantha J. Lycett</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="Aff2">The Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Campus, Midlothian, EH25 9RG UK</nlm:aff><orgName type="university">Université d'Édimbourg</orgName><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Édimbourg</settlement><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">28086751</idno><idno type="pmc">5237338</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5237338</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:5237338</idno><idno type="doi">10.1186/s12862-016-0845-3</idno><date when="2017">2017</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000155</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000155</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000155</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000155</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000205</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000205</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000D41</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000D41</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Quantifying predictors for the spatial diffusion of avian influenza virus in China</title><author><name sortKey="Lu, Lu" sort="Lu, Lu" uniqKey="Lu L" first="Lu" last="Lu">Lu Lu</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">Institute of Evolutionary Biology, Ashworth Laboratories, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JT UK</nlm:aff><orgName type="university">Université d'Édimbourg</orgName><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Édimbourg</settlement><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leigh Brown, Andrew J" sort="Leigh Brown, Andrew J" uniqKey="Leigh Brown A" first="Andrew J." last="Leigh Brown">Andrew J. Leigh Brown</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="Aff1">Institute of Evolutionary Biology, Ashworth Laboratories, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JT UK</nlm:aff><orgName type="university">Université d'Édimbourg</orgName><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Édimbourg</settlement><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lycett, Samantha J" sort="Lycett, Samantha J" uniqKey="Lycett S" first="Samantha J." last="Lycett">Samantha J. Lycett</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="Aff2">The Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Campus, Midlothian, EH25 9RG UK</nlm:aff><orgName type="university">Université d'Édimbourg</orgName><country>Royaume-Uni</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Édimbourg</settlement><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">BMC Evolutionary Biology</title><idno type="eISSN">1471-2148</idno><imprint><date when="2017">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>Avian influenza virus (AIV) causes both severe outbreaks and endemic disease among poultry and has caused sporadic human infections in Asia, furthermore the routes of transmission in avian species between geographic regions can be numerous and complex. Using nucleotide sequences from the internal protein coding segments of AIV, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic study to uncover regional routes of transmission and factors predictive of the rate of viral diffusion within China.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>We found that the Central area and Pan-Pearl River Delta were the two main sources of AIV diffusion, while the East Coast areas especially the Yangtze River delta, were the major targets of viral invasion. Next we investigated the extent to which economic, agricultural, environmental and climatic regional data was predictive of viral diffusion by fitting phylogeographic discrete trait models using generalised linear models.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Our results highlighted that the economic-agricultural predictors, especially the poultry population density and the number of farm product markets, are the key determinants of spatial diffusion of AIV in China; high human density and freight transportation are also important predictors of high rates of viral transmission; Climate features (e.g. temperature) were correlated to the viral invasion in the destination to some degree; while little or no impacts were found from natural environment factors (such as surface water coverage). This study uncovers the risk factors and enhances our understanding of the spatial dynamics of AIV in bird populations.</p></sec><sec><title>Electronic supplementary material</title><p>The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-016-0845-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kalthoff, D" uniqKey="Kalthoff D">D Kalthoff</name></author><author><name sortKey="Globig, A" uniqKey="Globig A">A Globig</name></author><author><name sortKey="Beer, M" uniqKey="Beer M">M Beer</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Martin, V" uniqKey="Martin V">V Martin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pfeiffer, Du" uniqKey="Pfeiffer D">DU Pfeiffer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, X" uniqKey="Zhou X">X Zhou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xiao, X" uniqKey="Xiao X">X 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