Comparison of methods to Estimate Basic Reproduction Number (R0) of influenza, Using Canada 2009 and 2017-18 A (H1N1) Data
Identifieur interne : 001009 ( Ncbi/Checkpoint ); précédent : 001008; suivant : 001010Comparison of methods to Estimate Basic Reproduction Number (R0) of influenza, Using Canada 2009 and 2017-18 A (H1N1) Data
Auteurs : Roya Nikbakht [Iran] ; Mohammad Reza Baneshi [Iran] ; Abbas Bahrampour [Iran] ; Abolfazl Hosseinnataj [Iran]Source :
- Journal of Research in Medical Sciences : The Official Journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences [ 1735-1995 ] ; 2019.
Abstract
The basic reproduction number (
We estimated
The AR method obtained a
For the purposes of our study, the estimation of TD was the most useful tool for computing the
Url:
DOI: 10.4103/jrms.JRMS_888_18
PubMed: 31523253
PubMed Central: 6670001
Affiliations:
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<sub>0</sub>
) of influenza, Using Canada 2009 and 2017-18 A (H1N1) Data</title>
<author><name sortKey="Nikbakht, Roya" sort="Nikbakht, Roya" uniqKey="Nikbakht R" first="Roya" last="Nikbakht">Roya Nikbakht</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Hosseinnataj, Abolfazl" sort="Hosseinnataj, Abolfazl" uniqKey="Hosseinnataj A" first="Abolfazl" last="Hosseinnataj">Abolfazl Hosseinnataj</name>
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Comparison of methods to Estimate Basic Reproduction Number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
) of influenza, Using Canada 2009 and 2017-18 A (H1N1) Data</title>
<author><name sortKey="Nikbakht, Roya" sort="Nikbakht, Roya" uniqKey="Nikbakht R" first="Roya" last="Nikbakht">Roya Nikbakht</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health Kerman, Iran</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Iran</country>
<wicri:regionArea>HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health Kerman</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Faculty of Health Kerman</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Baneshi, Mohammad Reza" sort="Baneshi, Mohammad Reza" uniqKey="Baneshi M" first="Mohammad Reza" last="Baneshi">Mohammad Reza Baneshi</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Iran</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Kerman</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Bahrampour, Abbas" sort="Bahrampour, Abbas" uniqKey="Bahrampour A" first="Abbas" last="Bahrampour">Abbas Bahrampour</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Iran</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Kerman</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Hosseinnataj, Abolfazl" sort="Hosseinnataj, Abolfazl" uniqKey="Hosseinnataj A" first="Abolfazl" last="Hosseinnataj">Abolfazl Hosseinnataj</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Iran</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Kerman</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Journal of Research in Medical Sciences : The Official Journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1735-1995</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1735-7136</idno>
<imprint><date when="2019">2019</date>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec id="st1"><title>Background:</title>
<p>The basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
) has a key role in epidemics and can be utilized for preventing epidemics. In this study, different methods are used for estimating <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
's and their vaccination coverage to find the formula with the best performance.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st2"><title>Materials and Methods:</title>
<p>We estimated <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
for cumulative cases count data from April 18 to July 6, 2009 and 35-2017 to 34-2018 weeks in Canada: maximum likelihood (ML), exponential growth rate (EG), time-dependent reproduction numbers (TD), attack rate (AR), gamma-distributed generation time (GT), and the final size of the epidemic. Gamma distribution with mean and standard deviation 3.6 ± 1.4 is used as GT.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st3"><title>Results:</title>
<p>The AR method obtained a <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0 (</sub>
95% confidence interval [CI]) value of 1.116 (1.1163, 1.1165) and an EG (95%CI) value of 1.46 (1.41, 1.52). The <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95%CI) estimate was 1.42 (1.27, 1.57) for the obtained ML, 1.71 (1.12, 2.03) for the obtained TD, 1.49 (1.0, 1.97) for the gamma-distributed GT, and 1.00 (0.91, 1.09) for the final size of the epidemic. The minimum and maximum vaccination coverage were related to AR and TD methods, respectively, where the TD method has minimum mean squared error (MSE). Finally, the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
(95%CI) for 2018 data was 1.52 (1.11, 1.94) by TD method, and vaccination coverage was estimated as 34.2%.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="st4"><title>Conclusion:</title>
<p>For the purposes of our study, the estimation of TD was the most useful tool for computing the <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
, because it has the minimum MSE. The estimation <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
> 1 indicating that the epidemic has occurred. Thus, it is required to vaccinate at least 41.5% to prevent and control the next epidemic.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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