Variability in transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Canadian communities
Identifieur interne : 000720 ( Ncbi/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000719; suivant : 000721Variability in transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Canadian communities
Auteurs : Luiz C. Mostaço-Guidolin [Canada] ; Amy Greer [Canada] ; Beate Sander [Canada] ; Jianhong Wu [Canada] ; Seyed M. Moghadas [Canada]Source :
- BMC Research Notes [ 1756-0500 ] ; 2011.
Abstract
The prevalence and severity of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic appeared to vary significantly across populations and geographic regions. We sought to investigate the variability in transmissibility of H1N1 pandemic in different health regions (including urban centres and remote, isolated communities) in the province of Manitoba, Canada.
The Richards model was used to fit to the daily number of laboratory-confirmed cases and estimate transmissibility (referred to as the basic reproduction number,
We observed considerable variation in
There was considerable geographic variation in transmissibility of the 2009 pandemic outbreaks. While highlighting the importance of estimating
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/1756-0500-4-537
PubMed: 22166307
PubMed Central: 3278401
Affiliations:
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PMC:3278401Le document en format XML
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<author><name sortKey="Mostaco Guidolin, Luiz C" sort="Mostaco Guidolin, Luiz C" uniqKey="Mostaco Guidolin L" first="Luiz C" last="Mostaço-Guidolin">Luiz C. Mostaço-Guidolin</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M" last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name>
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<series><title level="j">BMC Research Notes</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1756-0500</idno>
<imprint><date when="2011">2011</date>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>The prevalence and severity of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic appeared to vary significantly across populations and geographic regions. We sought to investigate the variability in transmissibility of H1N1 pandemic in different health regions (including urban centres and remote, isolated communities) in the province of Manitoba, Canada.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>The Richards model was used to fit to the daily number of laboratory-confirmed cases and estimate transmissibility (referred to as the basic reproduction number, <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0</sub>
), doubling times, and turning points of outbreaks in both spring and fall waves of the H1N1 pandemic in several health regions.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>We observed considerable variation in <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0 </sub>
estimates ranging from 1.55 to 2.24, with confidence intervals ranging from 1.45 to 2.88, for an average generation time of 2.9 days, and shorter doubling times in some remote and isolated communities compared to urban centres, suggesting a more rapid spread of disease in these communities during the first wave. For the second wave, <italic>R<sub>e</sub>
</italic>
, the effective reproduction number, is estimated to be lower for remote and isolated communities; however, outbreaks appear to have been driven by somewhat higher transmissibility in urban centres.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>There was considerable geographic variation in transmissibility of the 2009 pandemic outbreaks. While highlighting the importance of estimating <italic>R</italic>
<sub>0 </sub>
for informing health responses, the findings indicate that projecting the transmissibility for large-scale epidemics may not faithfully characterize the early spread of disease in remote and isolated communities.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li>
</country>
<region><li>Ontario</li>
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<settlement><li>Toronto</li>
</settlement>
<orgName><li>Université de Toronto</li>
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</record>
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