Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs
Identifieur interne : 000191 ( Main/Merge ); précédent : 000190; suivant : 000192Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs
Auteurs : Zoe Bambery ; Cynthia H. Cassell ; Rebecca E. Bunnell ; Kakoli Roy ; Zara Ahmed ; Rebecca L. Payne ; Martin I. MeltzerSource :
- Health Security [ 2326-5094 ] ; 2018.
Abstract
We estimated the impact on the US export economy of an illustrative infectious disease outbreak scenario in Southeast Asia that has 3 stages starting in 1 country and, if uncontained, spreads to 9 countries. We used 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola epidemic–related World Bank estimates of 3.3% and 16.1% reductions in gross domestic product (GDP). We also used US Department of Commerce job data to calculate export-related jobs at risk to any outbreak-related disruption in US exports. Assuming a direct correlation between GDP reductions and reduced demand for US exports, we estimated that the illustrative outbreak would cost from approximately $13 million to approximately $64 million (1 country) to $8 billion to $41 billion (9 countries) and place 1,500 to almost 1.4 million export-related US jobs at risk. Our analysis illustrates how global health security is enhanced, and the US economy is protected, when public health threats are rapidly detected and contained at their source.
Url:
DOI: 10.1089/hs.2017.0052
PubMed: 29405775
PubMed Central: 5815448
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Cassell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bunnell, Rebecca E" sort="Bunnell, Rebecca E" uniqKey="Bunnell R" first="Rebecca E." last="Bunnell">Rebecca E. Bunnell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Roy, Kakoli" sort="Roy, Kakoli" uniqKey="Roy K" first="Kakoli" last="Roy">Kakoli Roy</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ahmed, Zara" sort="Ahmed, Zara" uniqKey="Ahmed Z" first="Zara" last="Ahmed">Zara Ahmed</name></author><author><name sortKey="Payne, Rebecca L" sort="Payne, Rebecca L" uniqKey="Payne R" first="Rebecca L." last="Payne">Rebecca L. Payne</name></author><author><name sortKey="Meltzer, Martin I" sort="Meltzer, Martin I" uniqKey="Meltzer M" first="Martin I." last="Meltzer">Martin I. Meltzer</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Health Security</title><idno type="ISSN">2326-5094</idno><idno type="eISSN">2326-5108</idno><imprint><date when="2018">2018</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>We estimated the impact on the US export economy of an illustrative infectious disease outbreak scenario in Southeast Asia that has 3 stages starting in 1 country and, if uncontained, spreads to 9 countries. We used 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola epidemic–related World Bank estimates of 3.3% and 16.1% reductions in gross domestic product (GDP). We also used US Department of Commerce job data to calculate export-related jobs at risk to any outbreak-related disruption in US exports. Assuming a direct correlation between GDP reductions and reduced demand for US exports, we estimated that the illustrative outbreak would cost from approximately $13 million to approximately $64 million (1 country) to $8 billion to $41 billion (9 countries) and place 1,500 to almost 1.4 million export-related US jobs at risk. Our analysis illustrates how global health security is enhanced, and the US economy is protected, when public health threats are rapidly detected and contained at their source.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="El Turabi, A" uniqKey="El Turabi A">A El Turabi</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Rasmussen, C" uniqKey="Rasmussen C">C. 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