Emergence and dynamics of influenza super-strains
Identifieur interne : 000C67 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000C66; suivant : 000C68Emergence and dynamics of influenza super-strains
Auteurs : Brian J. Coburn [États-Unis] ; Chris Cosner [États-Unis] ; Shigui Ruan [États-Unis]Source :
- BMC Public Health [ 1471-2458 ] ; 2011.
Abstract
Influenza super-strains can emerge through recombination of strains from birds, pigs, and humans. However, once a new recombinant strain emerges, it is not clear whether the strain is capable of sustaining an outbreak. In certain cases, such strains have caused major influenza pandemics.
Here we develop a multi-host (i.e., birds, pigs, and humans) and multi-strain model of influenza to analyze the outcome of emergent strains. In the model, pigs act as “mixing vessels” for avian and human strains and can produce super-strains from genetic recombination.
We find that epidemiological outcomes are predicted by three factors: (i) contact between pigs and humans, (ii) transmissibility of the super-strain in humans, and (iii) transmissibility from pigs to humans. Specifically, outbreaks will reoccur when the super-strain infections are less frequent between humans (e.g., R
Our results provide insights on the effect of species interactions on the dynamics of influenza super-strains. Counter intuitively, epidemics may occur in humans even if the transmissibility of a super-strain is low. Surprisingly, our modeling shows strains that have generated past epidemics (e.g., H1N1) could resurge decades after they have apparently disappeared.
Url:
DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-11-S1-S6
PubMed: 21356135
PubMed Central: 3317579
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Emergence and dynamics of influenza super-strains</title>
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<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="I1">Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute of Neuroscience & Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, 10940 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 1450, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA</nlm:aff>
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<author><name sortKey="Cosner, Chris" sort="Cosner, Chris" uniqKey="Cosner C" first="Chris" last="Cosner">Chris Cosner</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="I2">Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-4250, USA</nlm:aff>
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<author><name sortKey="Ruan, Shigui" sort="Ruan, Shigui" uniqKey="Ruan S" first="Shigui" last="Ruan">Shigui Ruan</name>
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<series><title level="j">BMC Public Health</title>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title>
<p>Influenza super-strains can emerge through recombination of strains from birds, pigs, and humans. However, once a new recombinant strain emerges, it is not clear whether the strain is capable of sustaining an outbreak. In certain cases, such strains have caused major influenza pandemics.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Methods</title>
<p>Here we develop a multi-host (i.e., birds, pigs, and humans) and multi-strain model of influenza to analyze the outcome of emergent strains. In the model, pigs act as “mixing vessels” for avian and human strains and can produce super-strains from genetic recombination.</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Results</title>
<p>We find that epidemiological outcomes are predicted by three factors: (i) contact between pigs and humans, (ii) transmissibility of the super-strain in humans, and (iii) transmissibility from pigs to humans. Specifically, outbreaks will reoccur when the super-strain infections are less frequent between humans (e.g., R<italic><sub>0</sub>
</italic>
=1.4) but frequent from pigs to humans, and a large-scale outbreak followed by successive dampening outbreaks will occur when super-strain infections are frequent between humans (e.g., R<italic><sub>0</sub>
</italic>
=2.3). The average time between the initial outbreak and the first resurgence varies from 41 to 82 years. We determine the largest outbreak will occur when 2.3 <<italic>R<sub>0</sub>
</italic>
< 3.8 and the highest cumulative infections occur when 0 <<italic>R<sub>0</sub>
</italic>
< 3.0 and is dependent on the frequency of pig-to-human infections for lower R<sub>0</sub>
values (0 <<italic>R<sub>0</sub>
</italic>
< 1.9).</p>
</sec>
<sec><title>Conclusions</title>
<p>Our results provide insights on the effect of species interactions on the dynamics of influenza super-strains. Counter intuitively, epidemics may occur in humans even if the transmissibility of a super-strain is low. Surprisingly, our modeling shows strains that have generated past epidemics (e.g., H1N1) could resurge decades after they have apparently disappeared.</p>
</sec>
</div>
</front>
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