Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
Identifieur interne : 001474 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001473; suivant : 001475Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
Auteurs : Timothy C. Germann [États-Unis] ; Kai Kadau [États-Unis] ; Ira M. Longini [États-Unis] ; Catherine A. Macken [États-Unis]Source :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 0027-8424 ] ; 2006.
Abstract
Recent human deaths due to infection by highly pathogenic (H5N1) avian influenza A virus have raised the specter of a devastating pandemic like that of 1917–1918, should this avian virus evolve to become readily transmissible among humans. We introduce and use a large-scale stochastic simulation model to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus through the U.S. population of 281 million individuals for
Url:
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0601266103
PubMed: 16585506
PubMed Central: 1458676
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 000762
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 000762
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 000B94
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 000165
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 000165
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 000165
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 001493
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 001474
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States</title>
<author><name sortKey="Germann, Timothy C" sort="Germann, Timothy C" uniqKey="Germann T" first="Timothy C." last="Germann">Timothy C. Germann</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545; and</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:cityArea>*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kadau, Kai" sort="Kadau, Kai" uniqKey="Kadau K" first="Kai" last="Kadau">Kai Kadau</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545; and</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:cityArea>*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M." last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Program of Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98109</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:cityArea>Program of Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Macken, Catherine A" sort="Macken, Catherine A" uniqKey="Macken C" first="Catherine A." last="Macken">Catherine A. Macken</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545; and</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:cityArea>*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">16585506</idno>
<idno type="pmc">1458676</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1458676</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:1458676</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1073/pnas.0601266103</idno>
<date when="2006">2006</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000762</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000762</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000762</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000762</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000B94</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000B94</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000165</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000165</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000165</idno>
<idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0027-8424:2006:Germann T:mitigation:strategies:for</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">001493</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">001474</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">001474</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States</title>
<author><name sortKey="Germann, Timothy C" sort="Germann, Timothy C" uniqKey="Germann T" first="Timothy C." last="Germann">Timothy C. Germann</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545; and</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:cityArea>*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Kadau, Kai" sort="Kadau, Kai" uniqKey="Kadau K" first="Kai" last="Kadau">Kai Kadau</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545; and</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:cityArea>*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M." last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Program of Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98109</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:cityArea>Program of Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Macken, Catherine A" sort="Macken, Catherine A" uniqKey="Macken C" first="Catherine A." last="Macken">Catherine A. Macken</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545; and</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:cityArea>*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno>
<imprint><date when="2006">2006</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Recent human deaths due to infection by highly pathogenic (H5N1) avian influenza A virus have raised the specter of a devastating pandemic like that of 1917–1918, should this avian virus evolve to become readily transmissible among humans. We introduce and use a large-scale stochastic simulation model to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus through the U.S. population of 281 million individuals for <bold><italic>R</italic>
</bold>
<sub>0</sub>
(the basic reproductive number) from 1.6 to 2.4. We model the impact that a variety of levels and combinations of influenza antiviral agents, vaccines, and modified social mobility (including school closure and travel restrictions) have on the timing and magnitude of this spread. Our simulations demonstrate that, in a highly mobile population, restricting travel after an outbreak is detected is likely to delay slightly the time course of the outbreak without impacting the eventual number ill. For <bold><italic>R</italic>
</bold>
<sub>0</sub>
< 1.9, our model suggests that the rapid production and distribution of vaccines, even if poorly matched to circulating strains, could significantly slow disease spread and limit the number ill to <10% of the population, particularly if children are preferentially vaccinated. Alternatively, the aggressive deployment of several million courses of influenza antiviral agents in a targeted prophylaxis strategy may contain a nascent outbreak with low <bold><italic>R</italic>
</bold>
<sub>0</sub>
, provided adequate contact tracing and distribution capacities exist. For higher <bold><italic>R</italic>
</bold>
<sub>0</sub>
, we predict that multiple strategies in combination (involving both social and medical interventions) will be required to achieve similar limits on illness rates.</p>
</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region><li>Nouveau-Mexique</li>
<li>Washington (État)</li>
</region>
</list>
<tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Nouveau-Mexique"><name sortKey="Germann, Timothy C" sort="Germann, Timothy C" uniqKey="Germann T" first="Timothy C." last="Germann">Timothy C. Germann</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Kadau, Kai" sort="Kadau, Kai" uniqKey="Kadau K" first="Kai" last="Kadau">Kai Kadau</name>
<name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M." last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name>
<name sortKey="Macken, Catherine A" sort="Macken, Catherine A" uniqKey="Macken C" first="Catherine A." last="Macken">Catherine A. Macken</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/H2N2V1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001474 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 001474 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= H2N2V1 |flux= Main |étape= Exploration |type= RBID |clé= PMC:1458676 |texte= Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States }}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:16585506" \ | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \ | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a H2N2V1
This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |