Assessment of intervention strategies against a novel influenza epidemic using an individual-based model
Identifieur interne : 001127 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001126; suivant : 001128Assessment of intervention strategies against a novel influenza epidemic using an individual-based model
Auteurs : Tomoko Morimoto ; Hirofumi IshikawaSource :
- Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine [ 1342-078X ] ; 2009.
Abstract
The objective of this study was to assess intervention strategies against a novel influenza epidemic through simulations of various scenarios in Sapporo city, Hokkaido, Japan. A series of interventions were examined: administration of antiviral drugs by two approaches [targeted antiviral prophylaxis (TAP) and school-age targeted antiviral prophylaxis (STAP)], school closure, restraint, and combinations of these four interventions.
In order to generate a more realistic situation, we constructed an individual-based model (IBM) for the transmission of influenza in which each individual was assigned personal information on the basis of the National Census and Employment Status Survey of Sapporo city. In addition, data on high-risk casual contact groups commuting in crowded trains and buses were obtained from a census on transportation modes and introduced into the model. Observational data from previous pandemics were used for the epidemiological parameters.
Both TAP and STAP interventions were highly effective in suppressing the spread of infection during the early period of an outbreak, but STAP was inferior to TAP in terms of the ripple effect of the administration of antiviral drugs. School closure and restraint were able to bring about a delay in the peak of infection. The combination of TAP, school closure, and restraint interventions were highly effective in decreasing the total number of patients and shortening the epidemic period.
Based on the simulation results, we recommend implementing TAP together with both school closure and restraint as strategies against a future novel influenza outbreak.
Url:
DOI: 10.1007/s12199-009-0122-9
PubMed: 19941171
PubMed Central: 2854337
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 000179
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 000179
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 000A81
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 000448
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 000448
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 000448
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 001137
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 001127
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Assessment of intervention strategies against a novel influenza epidemic using an individual-based model</title><author><name sortKey="Morimoto, Tomoko" sort="Morimoto, Tomoko" uniqKey="Morimoto T" first="Tomoko" last="Morimoto">Tomoko Morimoto</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ishikawa, Hirofumi" sort="Ishikawa, Hirofumi" uniqKey="Ishikawa H" first="Hirofumi" last="Ishikawa">Hirofumi Ishikawa</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">19941171</idno><idno type="pmc">2854337</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2854337</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:2854337</idno><idno type="doi">10.1007/s12199-009-0122-9</idno><date when="2009">2009</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000179</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000179</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000179</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000179</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000A81</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000A81</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000448</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000448</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000448</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">1342-078X:2009:Morimoto T:assessment:of:intervention</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">001137</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">001127</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">001127</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Assessment of intervention strategies against a novel influenza epidemic using an individual-based model</title><author><name sortKey="Morimoto, Tomoko" sort="Morimoto, Tomoko" uniqKey="Morimoto T" first="Tomoko" last="Morimoto">Tomoko Morimoto</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ishikawa, Hirofumi" sort="Ishikawa, Hirofumi" uniqKey="Ishikawa H" first="Hirofumi" last="Ishikawa">Hirofumi Ishikawa</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">1342-078X</idno><idno type="eISSN">1347-4715</idno><imprint><date when="2009">2009</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Objectives</title><p>The objective of this study was to assess intervention strategies against a novel influenza epidemic through simulations of various scenarios in Sapporo city, Hokkaido, Japan. A series of interventions were examined: administration of antiviral drugs by two approaches [targeted antiviral prophylaxis (TAP) and school-age targeted antiviral prophylaxis (STAP)], school closure, restraint, and combinations of these four interventions.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>In order to generate a more realistic situation, we constructed an individual-based model (IBM) for the transmission of influenza in which each individual was assigned personal information on the basis of the National Census and Employment Status Survey of Sapporo city. In addition, data on high-risk casual contact groups commuting in crowded trains and buses were obtained from a census on transportation modes and introduced into the model. Observational data from previous pandemics were used for the epidemiological parameters.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Both TAP and STAP interventions were highly effective in suppressing the spread of infection during the early period of an outbreak, but STAP was inferior to TAP in terms of the ripple effect of the administration of antiviral drugs. School closure and restraint were able to bring about a delay in the peak of infection. The combination of TAP, school closure, and restraint interventions were highly effective in decreasing the total number of patients and shortening the epidemic period.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Based on the simulation results, we recommend implementing TAP together with both school closure and restraint as strategies against a future novel influenza outbreak.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Clayton, J" uniqKey="Clayton J">J Clayton</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Elveback, L" uniqKey="Elveback L">L Elveback</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fox, Jp" uniqKey="Fox J">JP Fox</name></author><author><name sortKey="Varma, A" uniqKey="Varma A">A Varma</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Elveback, L" uniqKey="Elveback L">L Elveback</name></author><author><name sortKey="Varma, A" uniqKey="Varma A">A Varma</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Elveback, Lr" uniqKey="Elveback L">LR Elveback</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ackerman, E" uniqKey="Ackerman E">E Ackerman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Young, G" uniqKey="Young G">G Young</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fox, Jp" uniqKey="Fox J">JP Fox</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Elveback, Lr" uniqKey="Elveback L">LR Elveback</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fox, Jp" uniqKey="Fox J">JP Fox</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ackerman, E" uniqKey="Ackerman E">E Ackerman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Langworthy, A" uniqKey="Langworthy A">A Langworthy</name></author><author><name sortKey="Boyd, M" uniqKey="Boyd M">M Boyd</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gatewood, L" uniqKey="Gatewood L">L Gatewood</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nizam, A" uniqKey="Nizam A">A Nizam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, S" uniqKey="Xu S">S Xu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ungchusak, K" uniqKey="Ungchusak K">K Ungchusak</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hanshaoworakul, W" uniqKey="Hanshaoworakul W">W Hanshaoworakul</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cummings, Da" uniqKey="Cummings D">DA Cummings</name></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, Me" uniqKey="Halloran M">ME Halloran</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cummings, Da" uniqKey="Cummings D">DA Cummings</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Meeyai, A" uniqKey="Meeyai A">A Meeyai</name></author><author><name sortKey="Iamsirithaworn, S" uniqKey="Iamsirithaworn S">S Iamsirithaworn</name></author><author><name sortKey="Burke, Ds" uniqKey="Burke D">DS Burke</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Germann, Tc" uniqKey="Germann T">TC Germann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kadau, K" uniqKey="Kadau K">K Kadau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Macken, Ca" uniqKey="Macken C">CA Macken</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ohkusa, Y" uniqKey="Ohkusa Y">Y Ohkusa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sugawara, T" uniqKey="Sugawara T">T Sugawara</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bridges, Cb" uniqKey="Bridges C">CB Bridges</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lim, W" uniqKey="Lim W">W Lim</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hu Primmer, J" uniqKey="Hu Primmer J">J Hu-Primmer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sims, L" uniqKey="Sims L">L Sims</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fukuda, K" uniqKey="Fukuda K">K Fukuda</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mak, Kh" uniqKey="Mak K">KH Mak</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rowe, T" uniqKey="Rowe T">T Rowe</name></author><author><name sortKey="Thompson, Ww" uniqKey="Thompson W">WW Thompson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Conn, L" uniqKey="Conn L">L Conn</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lu, X" uniqKey="Lu X">X Lu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cox, Nj" uniqKey="Cox N">NJ Cox</name></author><author><name sortKey="Katz, Jm" uniqKey="Katz J">JM Katz</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Nguyen Van Tam, Js" uniqKey="Nguyen Van Tam J">JS Nguyen-Van-Tam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hampson, Aw" uniqKey="Hampson A">AW Hampson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chin, Td" uniqKey="Chin T">TD Chin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Foley, Jf" uniqKey="Foley J">JF Foley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Doto, Il" uniqKey="Doto I">IL Doto</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gravelle, Cr" uniqKey="Gravelle C">CR Gravelle</name></author><author><name sortKey="Weston, J" uniqKey="Weston J">J Weston</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Davis, Le" uniqKey="Davis L">LE Davis</name></author><author><name sortKey="Caldwell, Gg" uniqKey="Caldwell G">GG Caldwell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lynch, Re" uniqKey="Lynch R">RE Lynch</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bailey, Re" uniqKey="Bailey R">RE Bailey</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chin, Td" uniqKey="Chin T">TD Chin</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name></author><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Ca" uniqKey="Donnelly C">CA Donnelly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hanage, Wp" uniqKey="Hanage W">WP Hanage</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Kerkhove, Md" uniqKey="Van Kerkhove M">MD Van Kerkhove</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hollingsworth, Td" uniqKey="Hollingsworth T">TD Hollingsworth</name></author><author><name sortKey="Griffin, J" uniqKey="Griffin J">J Griffin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Baggaley, Rf" uniqKey="Baggaley R">RF Baggaley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jenkins, He" uniqKey="Jenkins H">HE Jenkins</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lyons, Ej" uniqKey="Lyons E">EJ Lyons</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jombart, T" uniqKey="Jombart T">T Jombart</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hinsley, Wr" uniqKey="Hinsley W">WR Hinsley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Grassly, Nc" uniqKey="Grassly N">NC Grassly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Balloux, F" uniqKey="Balloux F">F Balloux</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ghani, Ac" uniqKey="Ghani A">AC Ghani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rambaut, A" uniqKey="Rambaut A">A Rambaut</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pybus, Og" uniqKey="Pybus O">OG Pybus</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lopez Gatell, H" uniqKey="Lopez Gatell H">H Lopez-Gatell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Apluche Aranda, Cm" uniqKey="Apluche Aranda C">CM Apluche-Aranda</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chapela, Ib" uniqKey="Chapela I">IB Chapela</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zavala, Ep" uniqKey="Zavala E">EP Zavala</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guevara, Dm" uniqKey="Guevara D">DM Guevara</name></author><author><name sortKey="Checchi, F" uniqKey="Checchi F">F Checchi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Garcia, E" uniqKey="Garcia E">E Garcia</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hugonnet, S" uniqKey="Hugonnet S">S Hugonnet</name></author><author><name sortKey="Roth, C" uniqKey="Roth C">C Roth</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fitzner, Ka" uniqKey="Fitzner K">KA Fitzner</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mcghee, Sm" uniqKey="Mcghee S">SM McGhee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hedley, Aj" uniqKey="Hedley A">AJ Hedley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shortridge, Kf" uniqKey="Shortridge K">KF Shortridge</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Taubenberger, Jk" uniqKey="Taubenberger J">JK Taubenberger</name></author><author><name sortKey="Morens, Dm" uniqKey="Morens D">DM Morens</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lau, Jt" uniqKey="Lau J">JT Lau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kim, Jh" uniqKey="Kim J">JH Kim</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tsui, Hy" uniqKey="Tsui H">HY Tsui</name></author><author><name sortKey="Griffiths, S" uniqKey="Griffiths S">S Griffiths</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, Me" uniqKey="Halloran M">ME Halloran</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nizam, A" uniqKey="Nizam A">A Nizam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y Yang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Sugawara, T" uniqKey="Sugawara T">T Sugawara</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sugiura, M" uniqKey="Sugiura M">M Sugiura</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ohkusa, Y" uniqKey="Ohkusa Y">Y Ohkusa</name></author><author><name sortKey="Taniguchi, K" uniqKey="Taniguchi K">K Taniguchi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Okabe, N" uniqKey="Okabe N">N Okabe</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mills, Ce" uniqKey="Mills C">CE Mills</name></author><author><name sortKey="Robins, Jm" uniqKey="Robins J">JM Robins</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M Lipsitch</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Sadique, Mz" uniqKey="Sadique M">MZ Sadique</name></author><author><name sortKey="Adams, Ej" uniqKey="Adams E">EJ Adams</name></author><author><name sortKey="Edmunds, Wj" uniqKey="Edmunds W">WJ Edmunds</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Ishikawa, Hirofumi" sort="Ishikawa, Hirofumi" uniqKey="Ishikawa H" first="Hirofumi" last="Ishikawa">Hirofumi Ishikawa</name><name sortKey="Morimoto, Tomoko" sort="Morimoto, Tomoko" uniqKey="Morimoto T" first="Tomoko" last="Morimoto">Tomoko Morimoto</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/H2N2V1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001127 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 001127 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= H2N2V1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= PMC:2854337
|texte= Assessment of intervention strategies against a novel influenza epidemic using an individual-based model
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:19941171" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a H2N2V1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |