Investment in antiviral drugs: a real options approach
Identifieur interne : 000F48 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000F47; suivant : 000F49Investment in antiviral drugs: a real options approach
Auteurs : Arthur E. Attema [Pays-Bas] ; Anna K. Lugnér [Pays-Bas] ; Talitha L. Feenstra [Pays-Bas]Source :
- Health Economics [ 1057-9230 ] ; 2010-10.
English descriptors
- Teeft :
- Additional amount, Antiviral, Antiviral drugs, Attema, Aversion, Bellman equation, Brownian motion, Certain outcome, College voor zorgverzekeringen, Copyright, Critical hazard rate, Critical value, Crucial role, Decision maker, Decision makers, Decision weight, Discount factor, Discount rate, Econ, Economic evaluation, European journal, Evaluation period, Evpi, Evpi analysis, Friction cost method, General solution, Hazard rate, Health care, Health care technologies, Health council, Health econ, Health economics, Health services research, Health technology assessment, Initial action, Interest rate, Investment decisions, John wiley sons, Kahneman, Large probabilities, Life years, Loss aversion, Loss aversion parameter, Lugner, Management science, Medical decision, Monetary terms, More information, More weight, National institute, Neoclassical investment theory, Netherlands, Numerical example, Opportunity costs, Optimal decision, Optimal policy, Optimal solution, Optimal timing, Optimization problem, Option, Option value, Option value approach, Options problem, Other hand, Other words, Outbreak, Pandemic, Pandemic contingency planning, Pandemic outbreak, Pandemic virus, Parameter estimates, Partial equilibrium, Petroleum projects, Possible pandemic, Power utility function, Precautionary investment, Prescription costs, Prescriptive purposes, Present value, Probability weighting, Probability weighting function, Product life cycles, Production losses, Productivity gains, Prospect theory, Public health, Qualitative nature, Real options, Real options analysis, Real options approach, Real options theory, Reference point, Risk attitude, Risk aversion, Risk neutrality, Risk proneness, Shelf life, Sheries management, Small probabilities, Standard analysis, Stochastic, Stochastic process, Stockpiling, Stockpiling costs, Time horizon, Total costs, Tversky, Utility framework, Utility function, Utility theory.
Abstract
Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations from expected utility are presented. We show that risk aversion counteracts the tendency to delay investment for this case of precautionary investment, which is in contrast to earlier applications of risk aversion to real options analysis. Moreover, we provide a numerical example using real world data and discuss the implications of real options analysis for health policy. Suggestions for further extensions of the model and a comparison with the expected value of information analysis are put forward. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Url:
DOI: 10.1002/hec.1549
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Istex, to step Corpus: 001385
- to stream Istex, to step Curation: 001385
- to stream Istex, to step Checkpoint: 000215
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 000F56
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 000F48
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Investment in antiviral drugs: a real options approach</title><author><name sortKey="Attema, Arthur E" sort="Attema, Arthur E" uniqKey="Attema A" first="Arthur E." last="Attema">Arthur E. Attema</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lugner, Anna K" sort="Lugner, Anna K" uniqKey="Lugner A" first="Anna K." last="Lugnér">Anna K. Lugnér</name></author><author><name sortKey="Feenstra, Talitha L" sort="Feenstra, Talitha L" uniqKey="Feenstra T" first="Talitha L." last="Feenstra">Talitha L. Feenstra</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:46B0159E6B7F77F2A97108A6F9D46BF378830DB0</idno><date when="2010" year="2010">2010</date><idno type="doi">10.1002/hec.1549</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/WNG-XS0KG70R-B/fulltext.pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">001385</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">001385</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Curation">001385</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Checkpoint">000215</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000215</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">1057-9230:2010:Attema A:investment:in:antiviral</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000F56</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000F48</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000F48</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main">Investment in antiviral drugs: a real options approach</title><author><name sortKey="Attema, Arthur E" sort="Attema, Arthur E" uniqKey="Attema A" first="Arthur E." last="Attema">Arthur E. Attema</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Prevention and Health Services Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bilthoven</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>iBMG/iMTA, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Rotterdam</settlement><region nuts="2" type="province">Hollande-Méridionale</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lugner, Anna K" sort="Lugner, Anna K" uniqKey="Lugner A" first="Anna K." last="Lugnér">Anna K. Lugnér</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Infectious Disease Control Netherlands, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bilthoven</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Feenstra, Talitha L" sort="Feenstra, Talitha L" uniqKey="Feenstra T" first="Talitha L." last="Feenstra">Talitha L. Feenstra</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Prevention and Health Services Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bilthoven</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Groningue</settlement><region nuts="2" type="province">Groningue (province)</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country wicri:rule="url">Pays-Bas</country></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea>Correspondence address: Center for Prevention and Health Services Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bilthoven</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j" type="main">Health Economics</title><title level="j" type="alt">HEALTH ECONOMICS</title><idno type="ISSN">1057-9230</idno><idno type="eISSN">1099-1050</idno><imprint><biblScope unit="vol">19</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">10</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1240">1240</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1254">1254</biblScope><biblScope unit="page-count">15</biblScope><publisher>John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</publisher><pubPlace>Chichester, UK</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2010-10">2010-10</date></imprint><idno type="ISSN">1057-9230</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">1057-9230</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en"><term>Additional amount</term><term>Antiviral</term><term>Antiviral drugs</term><term>Attema</term><term>Aversion</term><term>Bellman equation</term><term>Brownian motion</term><term>Certain outcome</term><term>College voor zorgverzekeringen</term><term>Copyright</term><term>Critical hazard rate</term><term>Critical value</term><term>Crucial role</term><term>Decision maker</term><term>Decision makers</term><term>Decision weight</term><term>Discount factor</term><term>Discount rate</term><term>Econ</term><term>Economic evaluation</term><term>European journal</term><term>Evaluation period</term><term>Evpi</term><term>Evpi analysis</term><term>Friction cost method</term><term>General solution</term><term>Hazard rate</term><term>Health care</term><term>Health care technologies</term><term>Health council</term><term>Health econ</term><term>Health economics</term><term>Health services research</term><term>Health technology assessment</term><term>Initial action</term><term>Interest rate</term><term>Investment decisions</term><term>John wiley sons</term><term>Kahneman</term><term>Large probabilities</term><term>Life years</term><term>Loss aversion</term><term>Loss aversion parameter</term><term>Lugner</term><term>Management science</term><term>Medical decision</term><term>Monetary terms</term><term>More information</term><term>More weight</term><term>National institute</term><term>Neoclassical investment theory</term><term>Netherlands</term><term>Numerical example</term><term>Opportunity costs</term><term>Optimal decision</term><term>Optimal policy</term><term>Optimal solution</term><term>Optimal timing</term><term>Optimization problem</term><term>Option</term><term>Option value</term><term>Option value approach</term><term>Options problem</term><term>Other hand</term><term>Other words</term><term>Outbreak</term><term>Pandemic</term><term>Pandemic contingency planning</term><term>Pandemic outbreak</term><term>Pandemic virus</term><term>Parameter estimates</term><term>Partial equilibrium</term><term>Petroleum projects</term><term>Possible pandemic</term><term>Power utility function</term><term>Precautionary investment</term><term>Prescription costs</term><term>Prescriptive purposes</term><term>Present value</term><term>Probability weighting</term><term>Probability weighting function</term><term>Product life cycles</term><term>Production losses</term><term>Productivity gains</term><term>Prospect theory</term><term>Public health</term><term>Qualitative nature</term><term>Real options</term><term>Real options analysis</term><term>Real options approach</term><term>Real options theory</term><term>Reference point</term><term>Risk attitude</term><term>Risk aversion</term><term>Risk neutrality</term><term>Risk proneness</term><term>Shelf life</term><term>Sheries management</term><term>Small probabilities</term><term>Standard analysis</term><term>Stochastic</term><term>Stochastic process</term><term>Stockpiling</term><term>Stockpiling costs</term><term>Time horizon</term><term>Total costs</term><term>Tversky</term><term>Utility framework</term><term>Utility function</term><term>Utility theory</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations from expected utility are presented. We show that risk aversion counteracts the tendency to delay investment for this case of precautionary investment, which is in contrast to earlier applications of risk aversion to real options analysis. Moreover, we provide a numerical example using real world data and discuss the implications of real options analysis for health policy. Suggestions for further extensions of the model and a comparison with the expected value of information analysis are put forward. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Pays-Bas</li></country><region><li>Groningue (province)</li><li>Hollande-Méridionale</li></region><settlement><li>Groningue</li><li>Rotterdam</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Pays-Bas"><noRegion><name sortKey="Attema, Arthur E" sort="Attema, Arthur E" uniqKey="Attema A" first="Arthur E." last="Attema">Arthur E. Attema</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Attema, Arthur E" sort="Attema, Arthur E" uniqKey="Attema A" first="Arthur E." last="Attema">Arthur E. Attema</name><name sortKey="Feenstra, Talitha L" sort="Feenstra, Talitha L" uniqKey="Feenstra T" first="Talitha L." last="Feenstra">Talitha L. Feenstra</name><name sortKey="Feenstra, Talitha L" sort="Feenstra, Talitha L" uniqKey="Feenstra T" first="Talitha L." last="Feenstra">Talitha L. Feenstra</name><name sortKey="Feenstra, Talitha L" sort="Feenstra, Talitha L" uniqKey="Feenstra T" first="Talitha L." last="Feenstra">Talitha L. Feenstra</name><name sortKey="Feenstra, Talitha L" sort="Feenstra, Talitha L" uniqKey="Feenstra T" first="Talitha L." last="Feenstra">Talitha L. Feenstra</name><name sortKey="Lugner, Anna K" sort="Lugner, Anna K" uniqKey="Lugner A" first="Anna K." last="Lugnér">Anna K. Lugnér</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/H2N2V1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000F48 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000F48 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= H2N2V1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= ISTEX:46B0159E6B7F77F2A97108A6F9D46BF378830DB0
|texte= Investment in antiviral drugs: a real options approach
}}
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |