Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic
Identifieur interne : 000562 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000561; suivant : 000563Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic
Auteurs : Cécile Viboud [États-Unis] ; Lone Simonsen [États-Unis, Danemark] ; Rodrigo Fuentes ; Jose Flores [Chili] ; Mark A. Miller [États-Unis] ; Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis]Source :
- The Journal of Infectious Diseases [ 0022-1899 ] ; 2015.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Grippe humaine (histoire), Grippe humaine (mortalité), Grippe humaine (virologie), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Histoire du 20ème siècle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Nourrisson, Pandémies (histoire), Santé mondiale, Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A.
- MESH :
- histoire : Grippe humaine, Pandémies.
- mortalité : Grippe humaine.
- virologie : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Histoire du 20ème siècle, Humains, Jeune adulte, Nourrisson, Santé mondiale, Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- history : Influenza, Human, Pandemics.
- mortality : Influenza, Human.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Child, Child, Preschool, Global Health, History, 20th Century, Humans, Infant, Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype, Middle Aged, Young Adult.
Abstract
Url:
DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiv534
PubMed: 26908781
PubMed Central: 4747626
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic</title>
<author><name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies</addr-line>
,<institution>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health</institution>
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<author><name sortKey="Simonsen, Lone" sort="Simonsen, Lone" uniqKey="Simonsen L" first="Lone" last="Simonsen">Lone Simonsen</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies</addr-line>
,<institution>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Bethesda, Maryland</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region>
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<wicri:cityArea>Bethesda</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2"><addr-line>Department of Global Health</addr-line>
,<institution>George Washington University</institution>
,<addr-line>Washington D.C.</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af5"><addr-line>Department of Public Health</addr-line>
,<institution>University of Copenhagen</institution>
,<country>Denmark</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Danemark</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Fuentes, Rodrigo" sort="Fuentes, Rodrigo" uniqKey="Fuentes R" first="Rodrigo" last="Fuentes">Rodrigo Fuentes</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff wicri:cut=", and" id="af6"><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology, Ministerio de Salud</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Ministerio de Salud</wicri:noCountry>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Flores, Jose" sort="Flores, Jose" uniqKey="Flores J" first="Jose" last="Flores">Jose Flores</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3"><addr-line>Department of Mathematical Sciences</addr-line>
,<institution>University of South Dakota</institution>
,<addr-line>Vermillion</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af7"><addr-line>Biodiversity Laboratories, National Center for the Environment</addr-line>
,<institution>Universidad de Chile</institution>
,<addr-line>Santiago</addr-line>
,<country>Chile</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Chili</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Miller, Mark A" sort="Miller, Mark A" uniqKey="Miller M" first="Mark A." last="Miller">Mark A. Miller</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies</addr-line>
,<institution>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Bethesda, Maryland</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region>
</placeName>
<wicri:cityArea>Bethesda</wicri:cityArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="af1"><addr-line>Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies</addr-line>
,<institution>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health</institution>
,<addr-line>Bethesda, Maryland</addr-line>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region>
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<series><title level="j">The Journal of Infectious Diseases</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0022-1899</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1537-6613</idno>
<imprint><date when="2015">2015</date>
</imprint>
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<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adult</term>
<term>Child</term>
<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Global Health</term>
<term>History, 20th Century</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Infant</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (history)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (mortality)</term>
<term>Influenza, Human (virology)</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
<term>Pandemics (history)</term>
<term>Young Adult</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adulte</term>
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term>
<term>Enfant</term>
<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (histoire)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (mortalité)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (virologie)</term>
<term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Histoire du 20ème siècle</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Jeune adulte</term>
<term>Nourrisson</term>
<term>Pandémies (histoire)</term>
<term>Santé mondiale</term>
<term>Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="histoire" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term>
<term>Pandémies</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="history" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
<term>Pandemics</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adult</term>
<term>Child</term>
<term>Child, Preschool</term>
<term>Global Health</term>
<term>History, 20th Century</term>
<term>Humans</term>
<term>Infant</term>
<term>Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype</term>
<term>Middle Aged</term>
<term>Young Adult</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term>
<term>Adulte</term>
<term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term>
<term>Enfant</term>
<term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term>
<term>Histoire du 20ème siècle</term>
<term>Humains</term>
<term>Jeune adulte</term>
<term>Nourrisson</term>
<term>Santé mondiale</term>
<term>Sous-type H2N2 du virus de la grippe A</term>
</keywords>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><bold><italic>Background.</italic>
</bold>
Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Methods.</italic>
</bold>
We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Results.</italic>
</bold>
The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10 000 population (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–2.6 cases/10 000 population) on average during 1957–1959. Excess mortality rates varied 70-fold across countries; Europe and Latin America experienced the lowest and highest rates, respectively. Excess mortality was delayed by 1–2 years in 18 countries (46%). Increases in the mortality rate relative to baseline were greatest in school-aged children and young adults, with no evidence that elderly population was spared from excess mortality. Development indicators were moderate predictors of excess mortality, explaining 35%–77% of the variance. Overall, we attribute 1.1 million excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million–1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957–1959 pandemic.</p>
<p><bold><italic>Conclusions.</italic>
</bold>
The global mortality rate of the 1957–1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact of the pandemic on mortality was delayed in several countries, pointing to a window of opportunity for vaccination in a future pandemic.</p>
</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Chili</li>
<li>Danemark</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region><li>Maryland</li>
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<tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Fuentes, Rodrigo" sort="Fuentes, Rodrigo" uniqKey="Fuentes R" first="Rodrigo" last="Fuentes">Rodrigo Fuentes</name>
</noCountry>
<country name="États-Unis"><region name="Maryland"><name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name>
<name sortKey="Miller, Mark A" sort="Miller, Mark A" uniqKey="Miller M" first="Mark A." last="Miller">Mark A. Miller</name>
<name sortKey="Simonsen, Lone" sort="Simonsen, Lone" uniqKey="Simonsen L" first="Lone" last="Simonsen">Lone Simonsen</name>
</country>
<country name="Danemark"><noRegion><name sortKey="Simonsen, Lone" sort="Simonsen, Lone" uniqKey="Simonsen L" first="Lone" last="Simonsen">Lone Simonsen</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="Chili"><noRegion><name sortKey="Flores, Jose" sort="Flores, Jose" uniqKey="Flores J" first="Jose" last="Flores">Jose Flores</name>
</noRegion>
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