Seasonality and selective trends in viral acute respiratory tract infections☆
Identifieur interne : 000523 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000522; suivant : 000524Seasonality and selective trends in viral acute respiratory tract infections☆
Auteurs : Patrick D. Shaw StewartSource :
- Medical Hypotheses [ 0306-9877 ] ; 2015.
Abstract
Influenza A and B, and many unrelated viruses including rhinovirus, RSV, adenovirus, metapneumovirus and coronavirus share the same seasonality, since these viral acute respiratory tract infections (vARIs) are much more common in winter than summer. Unfortunately, early investigations that used recycled “pedigree” virus strains seem to have led microbiologists to dismiss the common folk belief that vARIs often follow chilling. Today, incontrovertible evidence shows that ambient temperature dips and host chilling increase the incidence and severity of vARIs. This review considers four possible mechanisms, M1 - 4, that can explain this link: (M1) increased crowding in winter may enhance viral transmission; (M2) lower temperatures may increase the stability of virions outside the body; (M3) chilling may increase host susceptibility; (M4) lower temperatures or host chilling may activate dormant virions. There is little evidence for M1 or M2, which are incompatible with tropical observations. Epidemiological anomalies such as the repeated simultaneous arrival of vARIs over wide geographical areas, the rapid cessation of influenza epidemics, and the low attack rate of influenza within families are compatible with M4, but not M3 (in its simple form). M4 seems to be the main driver of seasonality, but M3 may also play an important role.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.mehy.2015.11.005
PubMed: 26608252
PubMed Central: 7116927
Affiliations:
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Seasonality and selective trends in viral acute respiratory tract infections<sup><xref ref-type="fn" rid="d32e1273">☆</xref></sup></title><author><name sortKey="Shaw Stewart, Patrick D" sort="Shaw Stewart, Patrick D" uniqKey="Shaw Stewart P" first="Patrick D." last="Shaw Stewart">Patrick D. Shaw Stewart</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">26608252</idno><idno type="pmc">7116927</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7116927</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7116927</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.mehy.2015.11.005</idno><date when="2015">2015</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000A26</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000A26</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000A26</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000A26</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000365</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000365</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000C43</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000C43</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000C43</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0306-9877:2015:Shaw Stewart P:seasonality:and:selective</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000524</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000523</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000523</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Seasonality and selective trends in viral acute respiratory tract infections<sup><xref ref-type="fn" rid="d32e1273">☆</xref></sup></title><author><name sortKey="Shaw Stewart, Patrick D" sort="Shaw Stewart, Patrick D" uniqKey="Shaw Stewart P" first="Patrick D." last="Shaw Stewart">Patrick D. Shaw Stewart</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Medical Hypotheses</title><idno type="ISSN">0306-9877</idno><idno type="eISSN">1532-2777</idno><imprint><date when="2015">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Influenza A and B, and many unrelated viruses including rhinovirus, RSV, adenovirus, metapneumovirus and coronavirus share the same seasonality, since these viral acute respiratory tract infections (vARIs) are much more common in winter than summer. Unfortunately, early investigations that used recycled “pedigree” virus strains seem to have led microbiologists to dismiss the common folk belief that vARIs often follow chilling. Today, incontrovertible evidence shows that ambient temperature dips and host chilling increase the incidence and severity of vARIs. This review considers four possible mechanisms, M1 - 4, that can explain this link: (M1) increased crowding in winter may enhance viral transmission; (M2) lower temperatures may increase the stability of virions outside the body; (M3) chilling may increase host susceptibility; (M4) lower temperatures or host chilling may activate dormant virions. There is little evidence for M1 or M2, which are incompatible with tropical observations. Epidemiological anomalies such as the repeated simultaneous arrival of vARIs over wide geographical areas, the rapid cessation of influenza epidemics, and the low attack rate of influenza within families are compatible with M4, but not M3 (in its simple form). M4 seems to be the main driver of seasonality, but M3 may also play an important role.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tamerius, J" uniqKey="Tamerius J">J. 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