The Transmissibility and Control of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus
Identifieur interne : 001032 ( Main/Curation ); précédent : 001031; suivant : 001033The Transmissibility and Control of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus
Auteurs : Yang Yang [États-Unis] ; Jonathan D. Sugimoto [États-Unis] ; M. Elizabeth Halloran [États-Unis] ; Nicole E. Basta [États-Unis] ; Dennis L. Chao [États-Unis] ; Laura Matrajt [États-Unis] ; Gail Potter [États-Unis] ; Eben Kenah [États-Unis] ; Ira M. Longini [États-Unis]Source :
- Science (New York, N.Y.) [ 0036-8075 ] ; 2009.
Abstract
Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the southern hemisphere, where the influenza season is underway. Here, based on reported case clusters in the USA, we estimate the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% (95% CI: 12.2%–50.5%). From a school outbreak, we estimate a school child infects 2.4 (95% CI: 1.8–3.2) other children within the school. We estimate the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3–1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6–3.2 days. We use a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the USA for the Fall, 2009. If vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.
Url:
DOI: 10.1126/science.1177373
PubMed: 19745114
PubMed Central: 2880578
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PMC:2880578Le document en format XML
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="P1">Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the southern hemisphere, where the influenza season is underway. Here, based on reported case clusters in the USA, we estimate the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% (95% CI: 12.2%–50.5%). From a school outbreak, we estimate a school child infects 2.4 (95% CI: 1.8–3.2) other children within the school. We estimate the basic reproductive number, R<sub>0</sub>
, to range from 1.3–1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6–3.2 days. We use a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the USA for the Fall, 2009. If vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.</p>
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