Transmission tree of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) epidemic in Israel, 2015
Identifieur interne : 000358 ( Main/Curation ); précédent : 000357; suivant : 000359Transmission tree of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) epidemic in Israel, 2015
Auteurs : Timothée Vergne ; Guillaume Fournié ; Michal Perry Markovich ; Rolf J. F. Ypma ; Ram Katz ; Irena Shkoda ; Avishai Lublin ; Shimon Perk ; Dirk U. PfeifferSource :
- Veterinary Research [ 0928-4249 ] ; 2016-12.
Abstract
The transmission tree of the Israeli 2015 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) was modelled by combining the spatio-temporal distribution of the outbreaks and the genetic distance between virus isolates. The most likely successions of transmission events were determined and transmission parameters were estimated. It was found that the median infectious pressure exerted at 1 km was 1.59 times (95% CI 1.04, 6.01) and 3.54 times (95% CI 1.09, 131.75) higher than that exerted at 2 and 5 km, respectively, and that three farms were responsible for all seven transmission events.
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DOI: 10.1186/s13567-016-0393-2
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<author><name sortKey="Katz, Ram" sort="Katz, Ram" uniqKey="Katz R" first="Ram" last="Katz">Ram Katz</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Lublin, Avishai" sort="Lublin, Avishai" uniqKey="Lublin A" first="Avishai" last="Lublin">Avishai Lublin</name>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"> <p>The transmission tree of the Israeli 2015 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) was modelled by combining the spatio-temporal distribution of the outbreaks and the genetic distance between virus isolates. The most likely successions of transmission events were determined and transmission parameters were estimated. It was found that the median infectious pressure exerted at 1 km was 1.59 times (95% CI 1.04, 6.01) and 3.54 times (95% CI 1.09, 131.75) higher than that exerted at 2 and 5 km, respectively, and that three farms were responsible for all seven transmission events.</p>
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