The Basic Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases: Computation and Estimation Using Compartmental Epidemic Models
Identifieur interne : 001570 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 001569; suivant : 001571The Basic Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases: Computation and Estimation Using Compartmental Epidemic Models
Auteurs : Gerardo Chowell ; Fred BrauerSource :
Abstract
The basic reproduction number (R0) is a central quantity in epidemiology as it measures the transmission potential of infectious diseases. In this chapter we review the basic theory of the spread of infectious diseases using simple compartmental models based on ordinary differential equations including the simple Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model, SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) models with demographics, the SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) model, backward bifurcations, endemic equilibria, and the analytical derivation of R0 using the next-generation approach. This theory is followed by simple methodology for the estimation of R0 with its corresponding uncertainty from epidemic time series data. The 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Winnipeg, Canada, and the 1968 influenza pandemic in US cities are used for illustration.
Url:
DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_1
Links to Exploration step
ISTEX:E383E270E6594EF31A4DA9FF55823B92CCC9E7AFLe document en format XML
<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">The Basic Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases: Computation and Estimation Using Compartmental Epidemic Models</title><author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Arizona State University School of Human Evolution&Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287-2402, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: gchowell@asu.edu</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brauer, Fred" sort="Brauer, Fred" uniqKey="Brauer F" first="Fred" last="Brauer">Fred Brauer</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada V6T 1Z2</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: brauer@math.ubc.ca</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:E383E270E6594EF31A4DA9FF55823B92CCC9E7AF</idno><date when="2009" year="2009">2009</date><idno type="doi">10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_1</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/HCB-4L7317WX-2/fulltext.pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">001570</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">001570</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">The Basic Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases: Computation and Estimation Using Compartmental Epidemic Models</title><author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Arizona State University School of Human Evolution&Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287-2402, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: gchowell@asu.edu</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brauer, Fred" sort="Brauer, Fred" uniqKey="Brauer F" first="Fred" last="Brauer">Fred Brauer</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada V6T 1Z2</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: brauer@math.ubc.ca</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The basic reproduction number (R0) is a central quantity in epidemiology as it measures the transmission potential of infectious diseases. In this chapter we review the basic theory of the spread of infectious diseases using simple compartmental models based on ordinary differential equations including the simple Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model, SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) models with demographics, the SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) model, backward bifurcations, endemic equilibria, and the analytical derivation of R0 using the next-generation approach. This theory is followed by simple methodology for the estimation of R0 with its corresponding uncertainty from epidemic time series data. The 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Winnipeg, Canada, and the 1968 influenza pandemic in US cities are used for illustration.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>springer-ebooks</corpusName><editor><json:item><name>Dr. Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliations><json:string>Arizona State University School of Human Evolution & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287-2402, USA</json:string><json:string>E-mail: gchowell@asu.edu</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Dr. James M. Hyman</name><affiliations><json:string>Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop B284, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA</json:string><json:string>E-mail: mac@t7.lanl.gov</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Dr. Luís M. A. Bettencourt</name><affiliations><json:string>Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop B284, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA</json:string><json:string>E-mail: lmbett@lanl.gov</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Carlos Castillo-Chavez</name><affiliations><json:string>Dept. Mathematics & Statistics, Arizona State University, P.O.Box 871804, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA</json:string><json:string>E-mail: ccchavez@asu.edu</json:string></affiliations></json:item></editor><author><json:item><name>Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliations><json:string>Arizona State University School of Human Evolution&Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287-2402, USA</json:string><json:string>E-mail: gchowell@asu.edu</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Fred Brauer</name><affiliations><json:string>Department of Mathematics, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada V6T 1Z2</json:string><json:string>E-mail: brauer@math.ubc.ca</json:string></affiliations></json:item></author><subject><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>Influenza</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>Pandemic</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>Epidemiology</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>Basic reproduction number</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>Model</value></json:item></subject><arkIstex>ark:/67375/HCB-4L7317WX-2</arkIstex><language><json:string>eng</json:string></language><originalGenre><json:string>chapter</json:string></originalGenre><abstract>The basic reproduction number (R0) is a central quantity in epidemiology as it measures the transmission potential of infectious diseases. In this chapter we review the basic theory of the spread of infectious diseases using simple compartmental models based on ordinary differential equations including the simple Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model, SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) models with demographics, the SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) model, backward bifurcations, endemic equilibria, and the analytical derivation of R0 using the next-generation approach. This theory is followed by simple methodology for the estimation of R0 with its corresponding uncertainty from epidemic time series data. The 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Winnipeg, Canada, and the 1968 influenza pandemic in US cities are used for illustration.</abstract><qualityIndicators><refBibsNative>false</refBibsNative><abstractWordCount>112</abstractWordCount><abstractCharCount>843</abstractCharCount><keywordCount>5</keywordCount><score>8.344</score><pdfWordCount>11110</pdfWordCount><pdfCharCount>59575</pdfCharCount><pdfVersion>1.3</pdfVersion><pdfPageCount>30</pdfPageCount><pdfPageSize>439.37 x 666.142 pts</pdfPageSize></qualityIndicators><title>The Basic Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases: Computation and Estimation Using Compartmental Epidemic Models</title><chapterId><json:string>1</json:string><json:string>Chap1</json:string></chapterId><genre><json:string>chapter</json:string></genre><host><title>Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology</title><language><json:string>unknown</json:string></language><copyrightDate>2009</copyrightDate><doi><json:string>10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1</json:string></doi><eisbn><json:string>978-90-481-2313-1</json:string></eisbn><bookId><json:string>978-90-481-2313-1</json:string></bookId><isbn><json:string>978-90-481-2312-4</json:string></isbn><pages><first>1</first><last>30</last></pages><genre><json:string>book</json:string></genre><editor><json:item><name>Dr. Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliations><json:string>Arizona State University School of Human Evolution & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287-2402, USA</json:string><json:string>E-mail: gchowell@asu.edu</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Dr. James M. Hyman</name><affiliations><json:string>Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop B284, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA</json:string><json:string>E-mail: mac@t7.lanl.gov</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Dr. Luís M. A. Bettencourt</name><affiliations><json:string>Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop B284, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA</json:string><json:string>E-mail: lmbett@lanl.gov</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Carlos Castillo-Chavez</name><affiliations><json:string>Dept. Mathematics & Statistics, Arizona State University, P.O.Box 871804, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA</json:string><json:string>E-mail: ccchavez@asu.edu</json:string></affiliations></json:item></editor><subject><json:item><value>Mathematics and Statistics</value></json:item><json:item><value>Mathematics</value></json:item><json:item><value>Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes</value></json:item><json:item><value>Biomedicine general</value></json:item><json:item><value>Infectious Diseases</value></json:item><json:item><value>Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences</value></json:item><json:item><value>Epidemiology</value></json:item></subject></host><ark><json:string>ark:/67375/HCB-4L7317WX-2</json:string></ark><publicationDate>2009</publicationDate><copyrightDate>2009</copyrightDate><doi><json:string>10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_1</json:string></doi><id>E383E270E6594EF31A4DA9FF55823B92CCC9E7AF</id><score>1</score><fulltext><json:item><extension>pdf</extension><original>true</original><mimetype>application/pdf</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/HCB-4L7317WX-2/fulltext.pdf</uri></json:item><json:item><extension>zip</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>application/zip</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/HCB-4L7317WX-2/bundle.zip</uri></json:item><istex:fulltextTEI uri="https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/HCB-4L7317WX-2/fulltext.tei"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title level="m" type="main">Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology</title></titleStmt><publicationStmt><authority>ISTEX</authority><publisher>Springer Netherlands</publisher><pubPlace>Dordrecht</pubPlace><availability><licence>Springer Science+Business Media B.V.</licence></availability><date when="2009">2009</date></publicationStmt><notesStmt><note type="content-type" subtype="other" source="Contributed volume" scheme="https://content-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XTP-7474895G-0">other</note><note type="publication-type" subtype="book" scheme="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/JMC-5WTPMB5N-F">book</note></notesStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">The Basic Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases: Computation and Estimation Using Compartmental Epidemic Models</title><author><persName><forename type="first">Gerardo</forename><surname>Chowell</surname></persName><email>gchowell@asu.edu</email><affiliation><orgName type="institution">Arizona State University School of Human Evolution&Social Change</orgName><address><settlement>Tempe</settlement><region>AZ 85287-2402</region><country key="US">UNITED STATES</country></address></affiliation></author><author><persName><forename type="first">Fred</forename><surname>Brauer</surname></persName><email>brauer@math.ubc.ca</email><affiliation><orgName type="department">Department of Mathematics</orgName><orgName type="institution">The University of British Columbia</orgName><address><settlement>Vancouver</settlement><region>B.C.</region><country key=""></country></address></affiliation></author><idno type="istex">E383E270E6594EF31A4DA9FF55823B92CCC9E7AF</idno><idno type="ark">ark:/67375/HCB-4L7317WX-2</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_1</idno></analytic><monogr><title level="m" type="main">Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology</title><idno type="DOI">10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1</idno><idno type="book-id">978-90-481-2313-1</idno><idno type="ISBN">978-90-481-2312-4</idno><idno type="eISBN">978-90-481-2313-1</idno><idno type="chapter-id">Chap1</idno><editor><persName><forename type="first">Gerardo</forename><surname>Chowell</surname></persName><email>gchowell@asu.edu</email><affiliation><orgName type="institution">Arizona State University School of Human Evolution & Social Change</orgName><address><settlement>Tempe</settlement><region>AZ 85287-2402</region><country key="US">UNITED STATES</country></address></affiliation></editor><editor><persName><forename type="first">James</forename><forename type="first">M.</forename><surname>Hyman</surname></persName><email>mac@t7.lanl.gov</email><affiliation><orgName type="institution">Los Alamos National Laboratory</orgName><address><street>Mail Stop B284</street><settlement>Los Alamos</settlement><region>NM 87545</region><country key="US">UNITED STATES</country></address></affiliation></editor><editor><persName><forename type="first">Luís</forename><forename type="first">M.</forename><forename type="first">A.</forename><surname>Bettencourt</surname></persName><email>lmbett@lanl.gov</email><affiliation><orgName type="institution">Los Alamos National Laboratory</orgName><address><street>Mail Stop B284</street><settlement>Los Alamos</settlement><region>NM 87545</region><country key="US">UNITED STATES</country></address></affiliation></editor><editor><persName><forename type="first">Carlos</forename><surname>Castillo-Chavez</surname></persName><email>ccchavez@asu.edu</email><affiliation><orgName type="department">Dept. Mathematics & Statistics</orgName><orgName type="institution">Arizona State University</orgName><address><postBox>P.O.Box 871804</postBox><settlement>Tempe</settlement><region>AZ 85287</region><country key="US">UNITED STATES</country></address></affiliation></editor><imprint><biblScope unit="page" from="1">1</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="30">30</biblScope><biblScope unit="chapter-count">14</biblScope></imprint></monogr></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The basic reproduction number (R<hi rend="subscript">0</hi>) is a central quantity in epidemiology as it measures the transmission potential of infectious diseases. In this chapter we review the basic theory of the spread of infectious diseases using simple compartmental models based on ordinary differential equations including the simple Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model, SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) models with demographics, the SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) model, backward bifurcations, endemic equilibria, and the analytical derivation of R<hi rend="subscript">0</hi> using the next-generation approach. This theory is followed by simple methodology for the estimation of R<hi rend="subscript">0</hi> with its corresponding uncertainty from epidemic time series data. The 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Winnipeg, Canada, and the 1968 influenza pandemic in US cities are used for illustration.</p></abstract><textClass ana="keyword"><keywords xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza</term><term>Pandemic</term><term>Epidemiology</term><term>Basic reproduction number</term><term>Model</term></keywords></textClass><textClass ana="subject"><keywords scheme="book-subject-collection"><list><label>SUCO11649</label><item><term>Mathematics and Statistics</term></item></list></keywords></textClass><textClass ana="subject"><keywords scheme="book-subject"><list><label>SCM</label><item><term type="Primary">Mathematics</term></item><label>SCM27004</label><item><term type="Secondary" subtype="priority-1">Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes</term></item><label>SCB0000X</label><item><term type="Secondary" subtype="priority-2">Biomedicine general</term></item><label>SCH33096</label><item><term type="Secondary" subtype="priority-3">Infectious Diseases</term></item><label>SCS15007</label><item><term type="Secondary" subtype="priority-4">Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences</term></item><label>SCH63000</label><item><term type="Secondary" subtype="priority-5">Epidemiology</term></item></list></keywords></textClass><langUsage><language ident="EN"></language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/HCB-4L7317WX-2/fulltext.txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="corpus springer-ebooks not found" wicri:toSee="no header"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:docType PUBLIC="-//Springer-Verlag//DTD A++ V2.4//EN" URI="http://devel.springer.de/A++/V2.4/DTD/A++V2.4.dtd" name="istex:docType"></istex:docType><istex:document><Publisher><PublisherInfo><PublisherName>Springer Netherlands</PublisherName><PublisherLocation>Dordrecht</PublisherLocation></PublisherInfo><Book Language="En"><BookInfo BookProductType="Contributed volume" ContainsESM="No" Language="En" MediaType="eBook" NumberingStyle="ContentOnly" TocLevels="0"><BookID>978-90-481-2313-1</BookID><BookTitle>Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology</BookTitle><BookDOI>10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1</BookDOI><BookTitleID>157921</BookTitleID><BookPrintISBN>978-90-481-2312-4</BookPrintISBN><BookElectronicISBN>978-90-481-2313-1</BookElectronicISBN><BookChapterCount>14</BookChapterCount><BookCopyright><CopyrightHolderName>Springer Netherlands</CopyrightHolderName><CopyrightYear>2009</CopyrightYear></BookCopyright><BookSubjectGroup><BookSubject Code="SCM" Type="Primary">Mathematics</BookSubject><BookSubject Code="SCM27004" Priority="1" Type="Secondary">Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes</BookSubject><BookSubject Code="SCB0000X" Priority="2" Type="Secondary">Biomedicine general</BookSubject><BookSubject Code="SCH33096" Priority="3" Type="Secondary">Infectious Diseases</BookSubject><BookSubject Code="SCS15007" Priority="4" Type="Secondary">Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences</BookSubject><BookSubject Code="SCH63000" Priority="5" Type="Secondary">Epidemiology</BookSubject><SubjectCollection Code="SUCO11649">Mathematics and Statistics</SubjectCollection></BookSubjectGroup></BookInfo><BookHeader><EditorGroup><Editor AffiliationIDS="Aff1"><EditorName DisplayOrder="Western"><Prefix>Dr.</Prefix><GivenName>Gerardo</GivenName><FamilyName>Chowell</FamilyName></EditorName><Contact><Email>gchowell@asu.edu</Email></Contact></Editor><Editor AffiliationIDS="Aff2"><EditorName DisplayOrder="Western"><Prefix>Dr.</Prefix><GivenName>James</GivenName><GivenName>M.</GivenName><FamilyName>Hyman</FamilyName></EditorName><Contact><Email>mac@t7.lanl.gov</Email></Contact></Editor><Editor AffiliationIDS="Aff2"><EditorName DisplayOrder="Western"><Prefix>Dr.</Prefix><GivenName>Luís</GivenName><GivenName>M.</GivenName><GivenName>A.</GivenName><FamilyName>Bettencourt</FamilyName></EditorName><Contact><Email>lmbett@lanl.gov</Email></Contact></Editor><Editor AffiliationIDS="Aff3"><EditorName DisplayOrder="Western"><GivenName>Carlos</GivenName><FamilyName>Castillo-Chavez</FamilyName></EditorName><Contact><Email>ccchavez@asu.edu</Email></Contact></Editor><Affiliation ID="Aff1"><OrgName>Arizona State University School of Human Evolution & Social Change</OrgName><OrgAddress><City>Tempe</City><State>AZ 85287-2402</State><Country>USA</Country></OrgAddress></Affiliation><Affiliation ID="Aff2"><OrgName>Los Alamos National Laboratory</OrgName><OrgAddress><Street>Mail Stop B284</Street><City>Los Alamos</City><State>NM 87545</State><Country>USA</Country></OrgAddress></Affiliation><Affiliation ID="Aff3"><OrgDivision>Dept. Mathematics & Statistics</OrgDivision><OrgName>Arizona State University</OrgName><OrgAddress><Postbox>P.O.Box 871804</Postbox><City>Tempe</City><State>AZ 85287</State><Country>USA</Country></OrgAddress></Affiliation></EditorGroup></BookHeader><Chapter ID="Chap1" Language="En"><ChapterInfo ChapterType="OriginalPaper" ContainsESM="No" NumberingStyle="ContentOnly" TocLevels="0"><ChapterID>1</ChapterID><ChapterDOI>10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_1</ChapterDOI><ChapterSequenceNumber>1</ChapterSequenceNumber><ChapterTitle Language="En">The Basic Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases: Computation and Estimation Using Compartmental Epidemic Models</ChapterTitle><ChapterFirstPage>1</ChapterFirstPage><ChapterLastPage>30</ChapterLastPage><ChapterCopyright><CopyrightHolderName>Springer Science+Business Media B.V.</CopyrightHolderName><CopyrightYear>2009</CopyrightYear></ChapterCopyright><ChapterGrants Type="Regular"><MetadataGrant Grant="OpenAccess"></MetadataGrant><AbstractGrant Grant="OpenAccess"></AbstractGrant><BodyPDFGrant Grant="Restricted"></BodyPDFGrant><BodyHTMLGrant Grant="Restricted"></BodyHTMLGrant><BibliographyGrant Grant="Restricted"></BibliographyGrant><ESMGrant Grant="Restricted"></ESMGrant></ChapterGrants><ChapterContext><BookID>978-90-481-2313-1</BookID><BookTitle>Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology</BookTitle></ChapterContext></ChapterInfo><ChapterHeader><AuthorGroup><Author AffiliationIDS="Aff4"><AuthorName DisplayOrder="Western"><GivenName>Gerardo</GivenName><FamilyName>Chowell</FamilyName></AuthorName><Contact><Email>gchowell@asu.edu</Email></Contact></Author><Author AffiliationIDS="Aff5"><AuthorName DisplayOrder="Western"><GivenName>Fred</GivenName><FamilyName>Brauer</FamilyName></AuthorName><Contact><Email>brauer@math.ubc.ca</Email></Contact></Author><Affiliation ID="Aff4"><OrgName>Arizona State University School of Human Evolution&Social Change</OrgName><OrgAddress><City>Tempe</City><State>AZ 85287-2402</State><Country>USA</Country></OrgAddress></Affiliation><Affiliation ID="Aff5"><OrgDivision>Department of Mathematics</OrgDivision><OrgName>The University of British Columbia</OrgName><OrgAddress><City>Vancouver</City><State>B.C.</State><Country>Canada V6T 1Z2</Country></OrgAddress></Affiliation></AuthorGroup><Abstract ID="Abs1" Language="En" OutputMedium="All"><Para TextBreak="No">The basic reproduction number (R<Subscript>0</Subscript>) is a central quantity in epidemiology as it measures the transmission potential of infectious diseases. In this chapter we review the basic theory of the spread of infectious diseases using simple compartmental models based on ordinary differential equations including the simple Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model, SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) models with demographics, the SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) model, backward bifurcations, endemic equilibria, and the analytical derivation of R<Subscript>0</Subscript> using the next-generation approach. This theory is followed by simple methodology for the estimation of R<Subscript>0</Subscript> with its corresponding uncertainty from epidemic time series data. The 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Winnipeg, Canada, and the 1968 influenza pandemic in US cities are used for illustration.</Para></Abstract><KeywordGroup Language="En"><Heading>Keywords</Heading><Keyword>Influenza</Keyword><Keyword>Pandemic</Keyword><Keyword>Epidemiology</Keyword><Keyword>Basic reproduction number</Keyword><Keyword>Model</Keyword></KeywordGroup></ChapterHeader><NoBody></NoBody></Chapter></Book></Publisher></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>The Basic Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases: Computation and Estimation Using Compartmental Epidemic Models</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA"><title>The Basic Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases: Computation and Estimation Using Compartmental Epidemic Models</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Gerardo</namePart><namePart type="family">Chowell</namePart><affiliation>Arizona State University School of Human Evolution&Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287-2402, USA</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: gchowell@asu.edu</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Fred</namePart><namePart type="family">Brauer</namePart><affiliation>Department of Mathematics, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada V6T 1Z2</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: brauer@math.ubc.ca</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="termsOfAddress">Dr.</namePart><namePart type="given">Gerardo</namePart><namePart type="family">Chowell</namePart><affiliation>Arizona State University School of Human Evolution & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287-2402, USA</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: gchowell@asu.edu</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="termsOfAddress">Dr.</namePart><namePart type="given">James</namePart><namePart type="given">M.</namePart><namePart type="family">Hyman</namePart><affiliation>Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop B284, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: mac@t7.lanl.gov</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="termsOfAddress">Dr.</namePart><namePart type="given">Luís</namePart><namePart type="given">M.</namePart><namePart type="given">A.</namePart><namePart type="family">Bettencourt</namePart><affiliation>Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop B284, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: lmbett@lanl.gov</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Carlos</namePart><namePart type="family">Castillo-Chavez</namePart><affiliation>Dept. Mathematics & Statistics, Arizona State University, P.O.Box 871804, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: ccchavez@asu.edu</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="chapter" displayLabel="chapter" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XTP-CGT4WMJM-6"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Springer Netherlands</publisher><place><placeTerm type="text">Dordrecht</placeTerm></place><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2009</dateIssued><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2009</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><abstract lang="en">The basic reproduction number (R0) is a central quantity in epidemiology as it measures the transmission potential of infectious diseases. In this chapter we review the basic theory of the spread of infectious diseases using simple compartmental models based on ordinary differential equations including the simple Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model, SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) models with demographics, the SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) model, backward bifurcations, endemic equilibria, and the analytical derivation of R0 using the next-generation approach. This theory is followed by simple methodology for the estimation of R0 with its corresponding uncertainty from epidemic time series data. The 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Winnipeg, Canada, and the 1968 influenza pandemic in US cities are used for illustration.</abstract><subject lang="en"><genre>Keywords</genre><topic>Influenza</topic><topic>Pandemic</topic><topic>Epidemiology</topic><topic>Basic reproduction number</topic><topic>Model</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="termsOfAddress">Dr.</namePart><namePart type="given">Gerardo</namePart><namePart type="family">Chowell</namePart><affiliation>Arizona State University School of Human Evolution & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287-2402, USA</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: gchowell@asu.edu</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="termsOfAddress">Dr.</namePart><namePart type="given">James</namePart><namePart type="given">M.</namePart><namePart type="family">Hyman</namePart><affiliation>Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop B284, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: mac@t7.lanl.gov</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="termsOfAddress">Dr.</namePart><namePart type="given">Luís</namePart><namePart type="given">M.</namePart><namePart type="given">A.</namePart><namePart type="family">Bettencourt</namePart><affiliation>Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop B284, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: lmbett@lanl.gov</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Carlos</namePart><namePart type="family">Castillo-Chavez</namePart><affiliation>Dept. Mathematics & Statistics, Arizona State University, P.O.Box 871804, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: ccchavez@asu.edu</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">editor</roleTerm></role></name><genre type="book" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://publication-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/JMC-5WTPMB5N-F">book</genre><originInfo><publisher>Springer</publisher><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2009</copyrightDate><issuance>monographic</issuance></originInfo><subject><genre>Book-Subject-Collection</genre><topic authority="SpringerSubjectCodes" authorityURI="SUCO11649">Mathematics and Statistics</topic></subject><subject><genre>Book-Subject-Group</genre><topic authority="SpringerSubjectCodes" authorityURI="SCM">Mathematics</topic><topic authority="SpringerSubjectCodes" authorityURI="SCM27004">Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes</topic><topic authority="SpringerSubjectCodes" authorityURI="SCB0000X">Biomedicine general</topic><topic authority="SpringerSubjectCodes" authorityURI="SCH33096">Infectious Diseases</topic><topic authority="SpringerSubjectCodes" authorityURI="SCS15007">Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences</topic><topic authority="SpringerSubjectCodes" authorityURI="SCH63000">Epidemiology</topic></subject><identifier type="DOI">10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1</identifier><identifier type="ISBN">978-90-481-2312-4</identifier><identifier type="eISBN">978-90-481-2313-1</identifier><identifier type="BookTitleID">157921</identifier><identifier type="BookID">978-90-481-2313-1</identifier><identifier type="BookChapterCount">14</identifier><part><date>2009</date><extent unit="pages"><start>1</start><end>30</end></extent></part><recordInfo><recordOrigin>Springer Netherlands, 2009</recordOrigin></recordInfo></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">E383E270E6594EF31A4DA9FF55823B92CCC9E7AF</identifier><identifier type="ark">ark:/67375/HCB-4L7317WX-2</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1007/978-90-481-2313-1_1</identifier><identifier type="ChapterID">1</identifier><identifier type="ChapterID">Chap1</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">Springer Netherlands, 2009</accessCondition><recordInfo><recordContentSource authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://loaded-corpus.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://loaded-corpus.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XBH-RLRX46XW-4">springer</recordContentSource><recordOrigin>Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2009</recordOrigin></recordInfo></mods><json:item><extension>json</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>application/json</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/HCB-4L7317WX-2/record.json</uri></json:item></metadata><annexes><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>true</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/HCB-4L7317WX-2/annexes.txt</uri></json:item></annexes><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/H2N2V1/Data/Istex/Corpus
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001570 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Istex/Corpus/biblio.hfd -nk 001570 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= H2N2V1
|flux= Istex
|étape= Corpus
|type= RBID
|clé= ISTEX:E383E270E6594EF31A4DA9FF55823B92CCC9E7AF
|texte= The Basic Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases: Computation and Estimation Using Compartmental Epidemic Models
}}
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |