The role of season in the epidemiology of influenza
Identifieur interne : 000020 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000019; suivant : 000021The role of season in the epidemiology of influenza
Auteurs : R. E. Hope-SimpsonSource :
- Journal of Hygiene [ 0022-1724 ] ; 1981-02.
Abstract
Four types of observations have been used to illustrate the seasonal characteristics of epidemic influenza: (1) The experience of a small population during 28 consecutive years, 1946–74, (2) world influenza outbreaks 1964–75 reported to the World Health Organization, (3) the experience of two widely separated localities at about the same latitude, 1969–74, and (4) the experience of two places at latitudes 30° + on opposite sides of the Equator, 1968–74. The following tendencies are shown. (1) Outbreaks of influenza even in the small community came at approximately the same season almost every year. (2) Outbreaks are globally ubiquitous and epidemic loci move smoothly to and fro across the surface of the earth almost every year in a sinuous curve that runs parallel with the ‘midsummer’ curve of vertical solar radiation, but lags about six months behind it. Such findings exclude the mediation of seasonal control by any agencies of local distribution, and suggest a direct effect of variations in some component of solar radiation on virus or human host. (3) Antigenic variations in influenza A virus tended to have the same seasonal characteristics as epidemicity. This suggests that epidemicity and virus variation are two facets of one seasonally controlled process. None of these seasonal characteristics can be explained by the current concept of influenzal epidemiology. A new hypothesis recently proposed and recapitulated in the Appendix offers a possible explanation. The primary agency mediating seasonal control remains unidentified.
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DOI: 10.1017/S0022172400068728
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Hope-Simpson</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Epidemiological Research Unit, 86 Dyer Street, Cirencester, Gloucestershire</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:753771D1DC509C3F6A674EE91AD5010A8C9B8363</idno><date when="1981" year="1981">1981</date><idno type="doi">10.1017/S0022172400068728</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/6GQ-LLXG5WHL-6/fulltext.pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">000020</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">000020</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a">The role of season in the epidemiology of influenza</title><author><name sortKey="Hope Simpson, R E" sort="Hope Simpson, R E" uniqKey="Hope Simpson R" first="R. E." last="Hope-Simpson">R. E. Hope-Simpson</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Epidemiological Research Unit, 86 Dyer Street, Cirencester, Gloucestershire</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Journal of Hygiene</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">J. Hyg.</title><idno type="ISSN">0022-1724</idno><imprint><publisher>Cambridge University Press</publisher><pubPlace>Cambridge, UK</pubPlace><date type="published" when="1981-02">1981-02</date><biblScope unit="volume">86</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">1</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="35">35</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="47">47</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0022-1724</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0022-1724</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">Four types of observations have been used to illustrate the seasonal characteristics of epidemic influenza: (1) The experience of a small population during 28 consecutive years, 1946–74, (2) world influenza outbreaks 1964–75 reported to the World Health Organization, (3) the experience of two widely separated localities at about the same latitude, 1969–74, and (4) the experience of two places at latitudes 30° + on opposite sides of the Equator, 1968–74. The following tendencies are shown. (1) Outbreaks of influenza even in the small community came at approximately the same season almost every year. (2) Outbreaks are globally ubiquitous and epidemic loci move smoothly to and fro across the surface of the earth almost every year in a sinuous curve that runs parallel with the ‘midsummer’ curve of vertical solar radiation, but lags about six months behind it. Such findings exclude the mediation of seasonal control by any agencies of local distribution, and suggest a direct effect of variations in some component of solar radiation on virus or human host. (3) Antigenic variations in influenza A virus tended to have the same seasonal characteristics as epidemicity. This suggests that epidemicity and virus variation are two facets of one seasonally controlled process. None of these seasonal characteristics can be explained by the current concept of influenzal epidemiology. A new hypothesis recently proposed and recapitulated in the Appendix offers a possible explanation. The primary agency mediating seasonal control remains unidentified.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>cambridge</corpusName><author><json:item><name>R. E. 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(1) Outbreaks of influenza even in the small community came at approximately the same season almost every year. (2) Outbreaks are globally ubiquitous and epidemic loci move smoothly to and fro across the surface of the earth almost every year in a sinuous curve that runs parallel with the ‘midsummer’ curve of vertical solar radiation, but lags about six months behind it. Such findings exclude the mediation of seasonal control by any agencies of local distribution, and suggest a direct effect of variations in some component of solar radiation on virus or human host. (3) Antigenic variations in influenza A virus tended to have the same seasonal characteristics as epidemicity. This suggests that epidemicity and virus variation are two facets of one seasonally controlled process. None of these seasonal characteristics can be explained by the current concept of influenzal epidemiology. A new hypothesis recently proposed and recapitulated in the Appendix offers a possible explanation. 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E.</forename><surname>Hope-Simpson</surname></persName><affiliation>Epidemiological Research Unit, 86 Dyer Street, Cirencester, Gloucestershire</affiliation></author><idno type="istex">753771D1DC509C3F6A674EE91AD5010A8C9B8363</idno><idno type="ark">ark:/67375/6GQ-LLXG5WHL-6</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1017/S0022172400068728</idno><idno type="PII">S0022172400068728</idno><idno type="article-id">06872</idno></analytic><monogr><title level="j">Journal of Hygiene</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">J. Hyg.</title><idno type="pISSN">0022-1724</idno><idno type="publisher-id">HYG</idno><imprint><publisher>Cambridge University Press</publisher><pubPlace>Cambridge, UK</pubPlace><date type="published" when="1981-02"></date><biblScope unit="volume">86</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">1</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="35">35</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="47">47</biblScope></imprint></monogr></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><creation><date>1981</date></creation><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage><abstract style="normal"><p>Four types of observations have been used to illustrate the seasonal characteristics of epidemic influenza: (1) The experience of a small population during 28 consecutive years, 1946–74, (2) world influenza outbreaks 1964–75 reported to the World Health Organization, (3) the experience of two widely separated localities at about the same latitude, 1969–74, and (4) the experience of two places at latitudes 30° + on opposite sides of the Equator, 1968–74. The following tendencies are shown. (1) Outbreaks of influenza even in the small community came at approximately the same season almost every year. (2) Outbreaks are globally ubiquitous and epidemic loci move smoothly to and fro across the surface of the earth almost every year in a sinuous curve that runs parallel with the ‘midsummer’ curve of vertical solar radiation, but lags about six months behind it. Such findings exclude the mediation of seasonal control by any agencies of local distribution, and suggest a direct effect of variations in some component of solar radiation on virus or human host. (3) Antigenic variations in influenza A virus tended to have the same seasonal characteristics as epidemicity. This suggests that epidemicity and virus variation are two facets of one seasonally controlled process. None of these seasonal characteristics can be explained by the current concept of influenzal epidemiology. A new hypothesis recently proposed and recapitulated in the Appendix offers a possible explanation. The primary agency mediating seasonal control remains unidentified.</p></abstract></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="1981-02">Published</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/6GQ-LLXG5WHL-6/fulltext.txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="corpus cambridge not found" wicri:toSee="no header"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="US-ASCII"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:docType PUBLIC="-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v2.2 20060430//EN" URI="journalpublishing.dtd" name="istex:docType"></istex:docType><istex:document><article dtd-version="2.2" article-type="research-article"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">HYG</journal-id><journal-title>Journal of Hygiene</journal-title><abbrev-journal-title>J. Hyg.</abbrev-journal-title><issn pub-type="ppub">0022-1724</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Cambridge University Press</publisher-name><publisher-loc>Cambridge, UK</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1017/S0022172400068728</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pii">S0022172400068728</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">06872</article-id><title-group><article-title>The role of season in the epidemiology of influenza</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="left-running">R. E. Hope-Simpson</alt-title><alt-title alt-title-type="right-running">Season and the epidemiology of influenza</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib><name><surname>Hope-Simpson</surname><given-names>R. E.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Epidemiological Research Unit</addr-line>, <addr-line>86 Dyer Street</addr-line>, <addr-line>Cirencester</addr-line>, <addr-line>Gloucestershire</addr-line></aff><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>02</month><year>1981</year></pub-date><volume>86</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage seq="6">35</fpage><lpage>47</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>22</day><month>05</month><year>1980</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1981</copyright-statement><copyright-year>1981</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Cambridge University Press</copyright-holder></permissions><abstract abstract-type="normal"><title>SUMMARY</title><p>Four types of observations have been used to illustrate the seasonal characteristics of epidemic influenza: (1) The experience of a small population during 28 consecutive years, 1946–74, (2) world influenza outbreaks 1964–75 reported to the World Health Organization, (3) the experience of two widely separated localities at about the same latitude, 1969–74, and (4) the experience of two places at latitudes 30° + on opposite sides of the Equator, 1968–74.</p><p>The following tendencies are shown. (1) Outbreaks of influenza even in the small community came at approximately the same season almost every year. (2) Outbreaks are globally ubiquitous and epidemic loci move smoothly to and fro across the surface of the earth almost every year in a sinuous curve that runs parallel with the ‘midsummer’ curve of vertical solar radiation, but lags about six months behind it. Such findings exclude the mediation of seasonal control by any agencies of local distribution, and suggest a direct effect of variations in some component of solar radiation on virus or human host. (3) Antigenic variations in influenza A virus tended to have the same seasonal characteristics as epidemicity. This suggests that epidemicity and virus variation are two facets of one seasonally controlled process.</p><p>None of these seasonal characteristics can be explained by the current concept of influenzal epidemiology. A new hypothesis recently proposed and recapitulated in the Appendix offers a possible explanation. The primary agency mediating seasonal control remains unidentified.</p></abstract><counts><page-count count="13"></page-count></counts><custom-meta-wrap><custom-meta><meta-name>pdf</meta-name><meta-value>S0022172400068728a.pdf</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-wrap></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>REFERENCES</title><ref><citation id="ref001" citation-type="journal"><name><surname>Archetti</surname><given-names>I.</given-names></name> & <name><surname>Horsfall</surname><given-names>F. L.</given-names></name> (<year>1950</year>). <article-title>Persistent antigenic variation of influenza A virus after incomplete neutralisation in ova with heterologous immune serum</article-title>. <source>Journal of Experimental Medicine</source> <volume>92</volume>, <fpage>441</fpage>–52.</citation></ref><ref><citation id="ref002" citation-type="book"><name><surname>Fothergill</surname><given-names>J.</given-names></name> (<year>1784</year>). A sketch of the epidemic disease which appeared in London towards the end of the year 1775. In <source>The Works of John Fothergill</source>, <publisher-loc>London</publisher-loc> (ed. <name><surname>Lettson</surname><given-names>J. C.</given-names></name>), <volume>III</volume>, pp. <fpage>251</fpage>–<lpage>302</lpage>.</citation></ref><ref><citation id="ref003" citation-type="journal"><name><surname>Gill</surname><given-names>P.</given-names></name> & <name><surname>Murphy</surname><given-names>A. M.</given-names></name> (<year>1976</year>). <article-title>Naturally acquired immunity to influenza type A. A clinical and laboratory study</article-title>. <source>Medical Journal of Australia</source> <volume>2</volume>, <fpage>329</fpage>–33.</citation></ref><ref><citation id="ref004" citation-type="journal">Hope-<name><surname>Simpson</surname><given-names>R. E.</given-names></name> (<year>1958</year>). <article-title>The epidemiology of non-infectious diseases. <italic>a</italic>. Common upper respiratory diseases</article-title>. <source>Royal Society of Health Journal</source> <volume>78</volume>, <fpage>593</fpage>–9.</citation></ref><ref><citation id="ref005" citation-type="journal"><name><surname>Hope-Simpson</surname><given-names>R. E.</given-names></name> (<year>1979</year>). <article-title>Epidemic mechanisms of type A influenza</article-title>. <source>Journal of Hygiene</source> <volume>83</volume>, <fpage>11</fpage>–<lpage>26</lpage>.</citation></ref><ref><citation id="ref006" citation-type="book"><name><surname>Kilbourne</surname><given-names>E. D.</given-names></name> (<year>1975</year>). <source>The Influenza Viruses and Influenza</source>, <volume>508</volume> pp. <publisher-loc>New York</publisher-loc>: <publisher-name>Academic Press</publisher-name>.</citation></ref><ref><citation id="ref007" citation-type="journal"><name><surname>Shadrin</surname><given-names>A. S.</given-names></name>, <name><surname>Marinich</surname><given-names>E. G.</given-names></name> & <name><surname>Taros</surname><given-names>L. Y.</given-names></name> (<year>1977</year>). <article-title>Experimental and epidemiological estimation of seasonal and climato-geographical features of non-specific resistance of the organism to influenza</article-title>. <source>Journal of Hygiene, Epidemiology, Microbiology & Immunology</source> <volume>21</volume>, <fpage>156</fpage>–61.</citation></ref><ref><citation id="ref008" citation-type="journal"><name><surname>Strnad</surname><given-names>P.</given-names></name>, <name><surname>Tumova</surname><given-names>B.</given-names></name>, <name><surname>Syrucek</surname><given-names>L.</given-names></name>, <name><surname>Fedova</surname><given-names>D.</given-names></name>, <name><surname>Bruckova</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name>, <name><surname>Kunzowa</surname><given-names>L.</given-names></name>, <name><surname>Stumpa</surname><given-names>A.</given-names></name>, <name><surname>Strizova</surname><given-names>V.</given-names></name>, <name><surname>Berkovicova</surname><given-names>V.</given-names></name> & <name><surname>Losova</surname><given-names>M.</given-names></name> (<year>1976</year>). <article-title>Influenza and other acute respiratory diseases in the Czech Socialist Republic, 1969–74</article-title>. <source>Bulletin of the World Health Organization</source> <volume>54</volume>, <fpage>657</fpage>–62.</citation></ref><ref><citation id="ref009" citation-type="book"><name><surname>Tromp</surname><given-names>S. W.</given-names></name> & <name><surname>Bouma</surname><given-names>J. J.</given-names></name> (eds) (<year>1979</year>). <source>Biometeorological Survey 1979. 1A. Human Biometeorology. 1B. Animal Biometeorology</source>. <publisher-loc>London</publisher-loc>: <publisher-name>Heyden & Sons</publisher-name>. (Both parts contain relevant reviews with useful references.)</citation></ref></ref-list></back></article></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo><title>The role of season in the epidemiology of influenza</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA"><title>The role of season in the epidemiology of influenza</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">R. E.</namePart><namePart type="family">Hope-Simpson</namePart><affiliation>Epidemiological Research Unit, 86 Dyer Street, Cirencester, Gloucestershire</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="research-article" displayLabel="research-article" authority="ISTEX" authorityURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr" valueURI="https://content-type.data.istex.fr/ark:/67375/XTP-1JC4F85T-7">research-article</genre><originInfo><publisher>Cambridge University Press</publisher><place><placeTerm type="text">Cambridge, UK</placeTerm></place><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">1981-02</dateIssued><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">1981</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm></language><abstract type="normal">Four types of observations have been used to illustrate the seasonal characteristics of epidemic influenza: (1) The experience of a small population during 28 consecutive years, 1946–74, (2) world influenza outbreaks 1964–75 reported to the World Health Organization, (3) the experience of two widely separated localities at about the same latitude, 1969–74, and (4) the experience of two places at latitudes 30° + on opposite sides of the Equator, 1968–74. The following tendencies are shown. (1) Outbreaks of influenza even in the small community came at approximately the same season almost every year. (2) Outbreaks are globally ubiquitous and epidemic loci move smoothly to and fro across the surface of the earth almost every year in a sinuous curve that runs parallel with the ‘midsummer’ curve of vertical solar radiation, but lags about six months behind it. Such findings exclude the mediation of seasonal control by any agencies of local distribution, and suggest a direct effect of variations in some component of solar radiation on virus or human host. (3) Antigenic variations in influenza A virus tended to have the same seasonal characteristics as epidemicity. This suggests that epidemicity and virus variation are two facets of one seasonally controlled process. None of these seasonal characteristics can be explained by the current concept of influenzal epidemiology. A new hypothesis recently proposed and recapitulated in the Appendix offers a possible explanation. The primary agency mediating seasonal control remains unidentified.</abstract><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Journal of Hygiene</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>J. 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