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Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature

Identifieur interne : 000087 ( Hal/Corpus ); précédent : 000086; suivant : 000088

Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature

Auteurs : Matthew Biggerstaff ; Simon Cauchemez ; Carrie Reed ; Manoj Gambhir ; Lyn Finelli

Source :

RBID : Hal:pasteur-01064890

Abstract

Background The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the average number of secondary cases generated per typical infectious case. Methods We conducted a systematic review to summarize published estimates of R for pandemic or seasonal influenza and for novel influenza viruses (e.g. H5N1). We retained and summarized papers that estimated R for pandemic or seasonal influenza or for human infections with novel influenza viruses. Results The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47-2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53-1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56-1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30-1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19-1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were. Conclusions These R values represent the difference between epidemics that are controllable and cause moderate illness and those causing a significant number of illnesses and requiring intensive mitigation strategies to control. Continued monitoring of R during seasonal and novel influenza outbreaks is needed to document its variation before the next pandemic.


Url:
DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-14-480

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Hal:pasteur-01064890

Le document en format XML

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<p>Background The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the average number of secondary cases generated per typical infectious case. Methods We conducted a systematic review to summarize published estimates of R for pandemic or seasonal influenza and for novel influenza viruses (e.g. H5N1). We retained and summarized papers that estimated R for pandemic or seasonal influenza or for human infections with novel influenza viruses. Results The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47-2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53-1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56-1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30-1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19-1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were. Conclusions These R values represent the difference between epidemics that are controllable and cause moderate illness and those causing a significant number of illnesses and requiring intensive mitigation strategies to control. Continued monitoring of R during seasonal and novel influenza outbreaks is needed to document its variation before the next pandemic.</p>
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<email type="domain">cdc.gov</email>
<idno type="halauthorid">1074786</idno>
<affiliation ref="#struct-267184"></affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<monogr>
<idno type="halJournalId" status="VALID">337</idno>
<idno type="issn">1471-2334</idno>
<idno type="eissn">1471-2334</idno>
<title level="j">BMC Infectious Diseases</title>
<imprint>
<publisher>BioMed Central</publisher>
<biblScope unit="volume">14</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="issue">1</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="pp">480</biblScope>
<date type="datePub">2014</date>
</imprint>
</monogr>
<idno type="doi">10.1186/1471-2334-14-480</idno>
<idno type="pubmed">25186370</idno>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
<profileDesc>
<langUsage>
<language ident="en">English</language>
</langUsage>
<textClass>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Reproductive number</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Influenza</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Pandemics</classCode>
<classCode scheme="mesh">Zoonotic influenza</classCode>
<classCode scheme="halDomain" n="sdv.mhep.mi">Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases</classCode>
<classCode scheme="halTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
</textClass>
<abstract xml:lang="en">
<p>Background The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the average number of secondary cases generated per typical infectious case. Methods We conducted a systematic review to summarize published estimates of R for pandemic or seasonal influenza and for novel influenza viruses (e.g. H5N1). We retained and summarized papers that estimated R for pandemic or seasonal influenza or for human infections with novel influenza viruses. Results The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47-2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53-1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56-1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30-1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19-1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were. Conclusions These R values represent the difference between epidemics that are controllable and cause moderate illness and those causing a significant number of illnesses and requiring intensive mitigation strategies to control. Continued monitoring of R during seasonal and novel influenza outbreaks is needed to document its variation before the next pandemic.</p>
</abstract>
</profileDesc>
</hal>
</record>

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