Taking into account the pandemic risk in a partial internal model
Identifieur interne : 000195 ( France/Analysis ); précédent : 000194; suivant : 000196Taking into account the pandemic risk in a partial internal model
Auteurs : Marine Habart Corlosquet [France]Source :
- Bulletin français d'actuariat [ 1779-7160 ] ; 2010-07.
English descriptors
- mix :
Abstract
Since the influenza A (H1N1) virus has made headlines of newspapers in 2009, awareness of the importance of pandemic risk has risen, especially among insurers. In fact, the occurrence of a severe pandemic could cause a significant increase in mortality, and consequently might cause the bankruptcy of insurance companies. Thus, it is essential for insurers to better understand pandemic risk. This is entirely consistent with the requirements of the new European Directive Solvency 2, which encourages insurers to control all the risks they face and to hold sufficient capital for these risks. This capital can be calculated by a standard formula, an internal model or a partial internal model. The purpose of this paper is to propose a way of integrating the risk of pandemic influenza in a partial internal model for the death guarantee and protection business. To do so, mortality risk is split into a trend and a pandemic shock event. The model takes into account the nature of available data and of the level of segmentation chosen by the insurance company (individual or aggregate data).
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Hal:hal-00948466Le document en format XML
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"> <p>Since the influenza A (H1N1) virus has made headlines of newspapers in 2009, awareness of the importance of pandemic risk has risen, especially among insurers. In fact, the occurrence of a severe pandemic could cause a significant increase in mortality, and consequently might cause the bankruptcy of insurance companies. Thus, it is essential for insurers to better understand pandemic risk. This is entirely consistent with the requirements of the new European Directive Solvency 2, which encourages insurers to control all the risks they face and to hold sufficient capital for these risks. This capital can be calculated by a standard formula, an internal model or a partial internal model. The purpose of this paper is to propose a way of integrating the risk of pandemic influenza in a partial internal model for the death guarantee and protection business. To do so, mortality risk is split into a trend and a pandemic shock event. The model takes into account the nature of available data and of the level of segmentation chosen by the insurance company (individual or aggregate data).</p>
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