Controlling highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks: An epidemiological and economic model analysis.
Identifieur interne : 000098 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000097; suivant : 000099Controlling highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks: An epidemiological and economic model analysis.
Auteurs : J A Backer [Pays-Bas] ; H J W. Van Roermund [Pays-Bas] ; E A J. Fischer [Pays-Bas] ; M A P M. Van Asseldonk [Pays-Bas] ; R H M. Bergevoet [Pays-Bas]Source :
- Preventive veterinary medicine [ 1873-1716 ] ; 2015.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Animaux (MeSH), Canards (MeSH), Dindons (MeSH), Grippe chez les oiseaux (prévention et contrôle), Grippe chez les oiseaux (virologie), Grippe chez les oiseaux (épidémiologie), Maladies de la volaille (prévention et contrôle), Maladies de la volaille (virologie), Maladies de la volaille (épidémiologie), Modèles théoriques (MeSH), Modèles économiques (MeSH), Pays-Bas (épidémiologie), Poulets (MeSH), Épidémies de maladies (médecine vétérinaire), Épidémies de maladies (prévention et contrôle), Épidémies de maladies (économie).
- MESH :
- médecine vétérinaire : Épidémies de maladies.
- prévention et contrôle : Grippe chez les oiseaux, Maladies de la volaille, Épidémies de maladies.
- virologie : Grippe chez les oiseaux, Maladies de la volaille.
- économie : Épidémies de maladies.
- épidémiologie : Grippe chez les oiseaux, Maladies de la volaille, Pays-Bas.
- Animaux, Canards, Dindons, Modèles théoriques, Modèles économiques, Poulets.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Pays-Bas.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Animals (MeSH), Chickens (MeSH), Disease Outbreaks (economics), Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Disease Outbreaks (veterinary), Ducks (MeSH), Influenza in Birds (epidemiology), Influenza in Birds (prevention & control), Influenza in Birds (virology), Models, Economic (MeSH), Models, Theoretical (MeSH), Netherlands (epidemiology), Poultry Diseases (epidemiology), Poultry Diseases (prevention & control), Poultry Diseases (virology), Turkeys (MeSH).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Netherlands.
- economics : Disease Outbreaks.
- epidemiology : Influenza in Birds, Poultry Diseases.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks, Influenza in Birds, Poultry Diseases.
- veterinary : Disease Outbreaks.
- virology : Influenza in Birds, Poultry Diseases.
- Animals, Chickens, Ducks, Models, Economic, Models, Theoretical, Turkeys.
Abstract
Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can cause large losses for the poultry sector and for animal disease controlling authorities, as well as risks for animal and human welfare. In the current simulation approach epidemiological and economic models are combined to compare different strategies to control highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry flocks. Evaluated control strategies are the minimum EU strategy (i.e., culling of infected flocks, transport regulations, tracing and screening of contact flocks, establishment of protection and surveillance zones), and additional control strategies comprising pre-emptive culling of all susceptible poultry flocks in an area around infected flocks (1 km, 3 km and 10 km) and emergency vaccination of all flocks except broilers around infected flocks (3 km). Simulation results indicate that the EU strategy is not sufficient to eradicate an epidemic in high density poultry areas. From an epidemiological point of view, this strategy is the least effective, while pre-emptive culling in 10 km radius is the most effective of the studied strategies. But these two strategies incur the highest costs due to long duration (EU strategy) and large-scale culling (pre-emptive culling in 10 km radius). Other analysed pre-emptive culling strategies (i.e., in 1 km and 3 km radius) are more effective than the analysed emergency vaccination strategy (in 3 km radius) in terms of duration and size of the epidemics, despite the assumed optimistic vaccination capacity of 20 farms per day. However, the total costs of these strategies differ only marginally. Extending the capacity for culling substantially reduces the duration, size and costs of the epidemic. This study demonstrates the strength of combining epidemiological and economic model analysis to gain insight in a range of consequences and thus to serve as a decision support tool in the control of HPAI epidemics.
DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2015.06.006
PubMed: 26087887
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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<term>Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Disease Outbreaks (veterinary)</term>
<term>Ducks (MeSH)</term>
<term>Influenza in Birds (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Influenza in Birds (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Influenza in Birds (virology)</term>
<term>Models, Economic (MeSH)</term>
<term>Models, Theoretical (MeSH)</term>
<term>Netherlands (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Poultry Diseases (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Poultry Diseases (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Poultry Diseases (virology)</term>
<term>Turkeys (MeSH)</term>
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<term>Dindons (MeSH)</term>
<term>Grippe chez les oiseaux (prévention et contrôle)</term>
<term>Grippe chez les oiseaux (virologie)</term>
<term>Grippe chez les oiseaux (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Maladies de la volaille (prévention et contrôle)</term>
<term>Maladies de la volaille (virologie)</term>
<term>Maladies de la volaille (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Modèles théoriques (MeSH)</term>
<term>Modèles économiques (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pays-Bas (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Poulets (MeSH)</term>
<term>Épidémies de maladies (médecine vétérinaire)</term>
<term>Épidémies de maladies (prévention et contrôle)</term>
<term>Épidémies de maladies (économie)</term>
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<term>Poultry Diseases</term>
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<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="médecine vétérinaire" xml:lang="fr"><term>Épidémies de maladies</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term>
<term>Influenza in Birds</term>
<term>Poultry Diseases</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can cause large losses for the poultry sector and for animal disease controlling authorities, as well as risks for animal and human welfare. In the current simulation approach epidemiological and economic models are combined to compare different strategies to control highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry flocks. Evaluated control strategies are the minimum EU strategy (i.e., culling of infected flocks, transport regulations, tracing and screening of contact flocks, establishment of protection and surveillance zones), and additional control strategies comprising pre-emptive culling of all susceptible poultry flocks in an area around infected flocks (1 km, 3 km and 10 km) and emergency vaccination of all flocks except broilers around infected flocks (3 km). Simulation results indicate that the EU strategy is not sufficient to eradicate an epidemic in high density poultry areas. From an epidemiological point of view, this strategy is the least effective, while pre-emptive culling in 10 km radius is the most effective of the studied strategies. But these two strategies incur the highest costs due to long duration (EU strategy) and large-scale culling (pre-emptive culling in 10 km radius). Other analysed pre-emptive culling strategies (i.e., in 1 km and 3 km radius) are more effective than the analysed emergency vaccination strategy (in 3 km radius) in terms of duration and size of the epidemics, despite the assumed optimistic vaccination capacity of 20 farms per day. However, the total costs of these strategies differ only marginally. Extending the capacity for culling substantially reduces the duration, size and costs of the epidemic. This study demonstrates the strength of combining epidemiological and economic model analysis to gain insight in a range of consequences and thus to serve as a decision support tool in the control of HPAI epidemics.</div>
</front>
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<Title>Preventive veterinary medicine</Title>
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<Abstract><AbstractText>Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can cause large losses for the poultry sector and for animal disease controlling authorities, as well as risks for animal and human welfare. In the current simulation approach epidemiological and economic models are combined to compare different strategies to control highly pathogenic avian influenza in Dutch poultry flocks. Evaluated control strategies are the minimum EU strategy (i.e., culling of infected flocks, transport regulations, tracing and screening of contact flocks, establishment of protection and surveillance zones), and additional control strategies comprising pre-emptive culling of all susceptible poultry flocks in an area around infected flocks (1 km, 3 km and 10 km) and emergency vaccination of all flocks except broilers around infected flocks (3 km). Simulation results indicate that the EU strategy is not sufficient to eradicate an epidemic in high density poultry areas. From an epidemiological point of view, this strategy is the least effective, while pre-emptive culling in 10 km radius is the most effective of the studied strategies. But these two strategies incur the highest costs due to long duration (EU strategy) and large-scale culling (pre-emptive culling in 10 km radius). Other analysed pre-emptive culling strategies (i.e., in 1 km and 3 km radius) are more effective than the analysed emergency vaccination strategy (in 3 km radius) in terms of duration and size of the epidemics, despite the assumed optimistic vaccination capacity of 20 farms per day. However, the total costs of these strategies differ only marginally. Extending the capacity for culling substantially reduces the duration, size and costs of the epidemic. This study demonstrates the strength of combining epidemiological and economic model analysis to gain insight in a range of consequences and thus to serve as a decision support tool in the control of HPAI epidemics.</AbstractText>
<CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Backer</LastName>
<ForeName>J A</ForeName>
<Initials>JA</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Central Veterinary Institute, Wageningen UR, Lelystad, The Netherlands; Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. Electronic address: jantien.backer@rivm.nl.</Affiliation>
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<Initials>HJ</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Central Veterinary Institute, Wageningen UR, Lelystad, The Netherlands.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<ForeName>E A J</ForeName>
<Initials>EA</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Central Veterinary Institute, Wageningen UR, Lelystad, The Netherlands; Department of Farm Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.</Affiliation>
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<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Wageningen UR, Wageningen, The Netherlands.</Affiliation>
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<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Economic assessment</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemiological model</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">HPAI</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Highly pathogenic avian influenza</Keyword>
<Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Pre-emptive culling</Keyword>
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