Climatic factors and long-term trends of influenza-like illness rates in The Netherlands, 1970-2016.
Identifieur interne : 000028 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 000027; suivant : 000029Climatic factors and long-term trends of influenza-like illness rates in The Netherlands, 1970-2016.
Auteurs : Saverio Caini ; Peter Spreeuwenberg ; Gé Donker ; Joke Korevaar ; John PagetSource :
- Environmental research [ 1096-0953 ] ; 2018.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Netherlands.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human, Respiratory Tract Infections.
- Humans, Humidity, Incidence, Seasons, Temperature.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Climatic factors affect the survival and transmissibility of respiratory viruses causing influenza-like illness (ILI), and we hypothesized that changes in absolute humidity and temperature may affect long-term trends of ILI incidence rate in temperate countries. We tested this hypothesis using ILI and meteorological time series in the Netherlands for the period 1970-2016.
METHODS
We described the long-term trends of ILI incidence, absolute humidity and temperature; modelled the association between climatic factors and ILI activity using negative binomial regression models; and assessed the strength of the association between the seasonal average absolute humidity (or temperature) and ILI incidence rate using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.
RESULTS
The ILI incidence rate declined from 1970 and reached a minimum in the season 2002-03, but started to increase again from the season 2003-04 onwards. In the negative binominal regression models, the weekly ILI count was inversely associated (p < 0.001) with 0- and 1-week lagged absolute humidity and temperature. After three decades of rising absolute humidity and temperature (1970-2000), the early 2000s represented a trend-reversal point for the climatic time series. The seasonal average ILI incidence rate and absolute humidity (or temperature) were strongly (inversely) correlated.
CONCLUSIONS
Our findings suggest that climate change may have played a role in the long-term trends of ILI incidence rates in the Netherlands, as we were able to show that lower humidity and temperature in a given week were associated with higher ILI incidence in the next week, there was a clear time point reversal in climatic parameters and ILI rates in the 2000s, and the average annual ILI incidence was inversely related to average annual temperatures and humidity.
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.07.035
PubMed: 30081307
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Climatic factors and long-term trends of influenza-like illness rates in The Netherlands, 1970-2016.</title><author><name sortKey="Caini, Saverio" sort="Caini, Saverio" uniqKey="Caini S" first="Saverio" last="Caini">Saverio Caini</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: s.caini@nivel.nl.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Spreeuwenberg, Peter" sort="Spreeuwenberg, Peter" uniqKey="Spreeuwenberg P" first="Peter" last="Spreeuwenberg">Peter Spreeuwenberg</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: p.spreeuwenberg@nivel.nl.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Donker, Ge" sort="Donker, Ge" uniqKey="Donker G" first="Gé" last="Donker">Gé Donker</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: g.donker@nivel.nl.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Korevaar, Joke" sort="Korevaar, Joke" uniqKey="Korevaar J" first="Joke" last="Korevaar">Joke Korevaar</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: j.korevaar@nivel.nl.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Paget, John" sort="Paget, John" uniqKey="Paget J" first="John" last="Paget">John Paget</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: j.paget@nivel.nl.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2018">2018</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:30081307</idno><idno type="pmid">30081307</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.envres.2018.07.035</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000028</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000028</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Climatic factors and long-term trends of influenza-like illness rates in The Netherlands, 1970-2016.</title><author><name sortKey="Caini, Saverio" sort="Caini, Saverio" uniqKey="Caini S" first="Saverio" last="Caini">Saverio Caini</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: s.caini@nivel.nl.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Spreeuwenberg, Peter" sort="Spreeuwenberg, Peter" uniqKey="Spreeuwenberg P" first="Peter" last="Spreeuwenberg">Peter Spreeuwenberg</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: p.spreeuwenberg@nivel.nl.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Donker, Ge" sort="Donker, Ge" uniqKey="Donker G" first="Gé" last="Donker">Gé Donker</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: g.donker@nivel.nl.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Korevaar, Joke" sort="Korevaar, Joke" uniqKey="Korevaar J" first="Joke" last="Korevaar">Joke Korevaar</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: j.korevaar@nivel.nl.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Paget, John" sort="Paget, John" uniqKey="Paget J" first="John" last="Paget">John Paget</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: j.paget@nivel.nl.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Environmental research</title><idno type="eISSN">1096-0953</idno><imprint><date when="2018" type="published">2018</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Humidity (MeSH)</term><term>Incidence (MeSH)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Netherlands (epidemiology)</term><term>Respiratory Tract Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Seasons (MeSH)</term><term>Temperature (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Netherlands</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term><term>Respiratory Tract Infections</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term><term>Humidity</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Seasons</term><term>Temperature</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>BACKGROUND</b></p><p>Climatic factors affect the survival and transmissibility of respiratory viruses causing influenza-like illness (ILI), and we hypothesized that changes in absolute humidity and temperature may affect long-term trends of ILI incidence rate in temperate countries. We tested this hypothesis using ILI and meteorological time series in the Netherlands for the period 1970-2016.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>We described the long-term trends of ILI incidence, absolute humidity and temperature; modelled the association between climatic factors and ILI activity using negative binomial regression models; and assessed the strength of the association between the seasonal average absolute humidity (or temperature) and ILI incidence rate using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>The ILI incidence rate declined from 1970 and reached a minimum in the season 2002-03, but started to increase again from the season 2003-04 onwards. In the negative binominal regression models, the weekly ILI count was inversely associated (p < 0.001) with 0- and 1-week lagged absolute humidity and temperature. After three decades of rising absolute humidity and temperature (1970-2000), the early 2000s represented a trend-reversal point for the climatic time series. The seasonal average ILI incidence rate and absolute humidity (or temperature) were strongly (inversely) correlated.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b></p><p>Our findings suggest that climate change may have played a role in the long-term trends of ILI incidence rates in the Netherlands, as we were able to show that lower humidity and temperature in a given week were associated with higher ILI incidence in the next week, there was a clear time point reversal in climatic parameters and ILI rates in the 2000s, and the average annual ILI incidence was inversely related to average annual temperatures and humidity.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" IndexingMethod="Curated" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">30081307</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2019</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>09</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2019</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>09</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1096-0953</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>167</Volume><PubDate><Year>2018</Year><Month>11</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Environmental research</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Environ. Res.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Climatic factors and long-term trends of influenza-like illness rates in The Netherlands, 1970-2016.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>307-313</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S0013-9351(18)30416-X</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.envres.2018.07.035</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND">Climatic factors affect the survival and transmissibility of respiratory viruses causing influenza-like illness (ILI), and we hypothesized that changes in absolute humidity and temperature may affect long-term trends of ILI incidence rate in temperate countries. We tested this hypothesis using ILI and meteorological time series in the Netherlands for the period 1970-2016.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS">We described the long-term trends of ILI incidence, absolute humidity and temperature; modelled the association between climatic factors and ILI activity using negative binomial regression models; and assessed the strength of the association between the seasonal average absolute humidity (or temperature) and ILI incidence rate using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS">The ILI incidence rate declined from 1970 and reached a minimum in the season 2002-03, but started to increase again from the season 2003-04 onwards. In the negative binominal regression models, the weekly ILI count was inversely associated (p < 0.001) with 0- and 1-week lagged absolute humidity and temperature. After three decades of rising absolute humidity and temperature (1970-2000), the early 2000s represented a trend-reversal point for the climatic time series. The seasonal average ILI incidence rate and absolute humidity (or temperature) were strongly (inversely) correlated.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS">Our findings suggest that climate change may have played a role in the long-term trends of ILI incidence rates in the Netherlands, as we were able to show that lower humidity and temperature in a given week were associated with higher ILI incidence in the next week, there was a clear time point reversal in climatic parameters and ILI rates in the 2000s, and the average annual ILI incidence was inversely related to average annual temperatures and humidity.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Caini</LastName><ForeName>Saverio</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: s.caini@nivel.nl.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Spreeuwenberg</LastName><ForeName>Peter</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: p.spreeuwenberg@nivel.nl.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Donker</LastName><ForeName>Gé</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: g.donker@nivel.nl.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Korevaar</LastName><ForeName>Joke</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: j.korevaar@nivel.nl.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Paget</LastName><ForeName>John</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: j.paget@nivel.nl.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2018</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>31</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Netherlands</Country><MedlineTA>Environ Res</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>0147621</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0013-9351</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006813" MajorTopicYN="Y">Humidity</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015994" MajorTopicYN="N">Incidence</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009426" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Netherlands</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012141" MajorTopicYN="N">Respiratory Tract Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012621" MajorTopicYN="N">Seasons</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013696" MajorTopicYN="Y">Temperature</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Absolute humidity</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Climate</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Influenza-like illness</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Temperature</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">The Netherlands</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Trend</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2018</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>30</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2018</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>11</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2018</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>27</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2018</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>7</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2019</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>10</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2018</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>7</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">30081307</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S0013-9351(18)30416-X</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.envres.2018.07.035</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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