Agent-based modeling of the spread of the 1918-1919 flu in three Canadian fur trading communities.
Identifieur interne : 000594 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000593; suivant : 000595Agent-based modeling of the spread of the 1918-1919 flu in three Canadian fur trading communities.
Auteurs : Caroline A. O'Neil [États-Unis] ; Lisa SattenspielSource :
- American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council [ 1520-6300 ]
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Dynamique des populations (histoire), Dynamique des populations (statistiques et données numériques), Grippe humaine (histoire), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Histoire du 20ème siècle (MeSH), Humains (MeSH), Manitoba (épidémiologie), Population rurale (histoire), Population rurale (statistiques et données numériques), Saisons (MeSH), Épidémies (MeSH).
- MESH :
- histoire : Dynamique des populations, Grippe humaine, Population rurale.
- statistiques et données numériques : Dynamique des populations, Population rurale.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Manitoba.
- Histoire du 20ème siècle, Humains, Saisons, Épidémies.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Epidemics (MeSH), History, 20th Century (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (history), Manitoba (epidemiology), Population Dynamics (history), Population Dynamics (statistics & numerical data), Rural Population (history), Rural Population (statistics & numerical data), Seasons (MeSH).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Manitoba.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- history : Influenza, Human, Population Dynamics, Rural Population.
- statistics & numerical data : Population Dynamics, Rural Population.
- Epidemics, History, 20th Century, Humans, Seasons.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
Previous attempts to study the 1918-1919 flu in three small communities in central Manitoba have used both three-community population-based and single-community agent-based models. These studies identified critical factors influencing epidemic spread, but they also left important questions unanswered. The objective of this project was to design a more realistic agent-based model that would overcome limitations of earlier models and provide new insights into these outstanding questions.
METHODS
The new model extends the previous agent-based model to three communities so that results can be compared to those from the population-based model. Sensitivity testing was conducted, and the new model was used to investigate the influence of seasonal settlement and mobility patterns, the geographic heterogeneity of the observed 1918-1919 epidemic in Manitoba, and other questions addressed previously.
RESULTS
Results confirm outcomes from the population-based model that suggest that (a) social organization and mobility strongly influence the timing and severity of epidemics and (b) the impact of the epidemic would have been greater if it had arrived in the summer rather than the winter. New insights from the model suggest that the observed heterogeneity among communities in epidemic impact was not unusual and would have been the expected outcome given settlement structure and levels of interaction among communities.
CONCLUSIONS
Application of an agent-based computer simulation has helped to better explain observed patterns of spread of the 1918-1919 flu epidemic in central Manitoba. Contrasts between agent-based and population-based models illustrate the advantages of agent-based models for the study of small populations.
DOI: 10.1002/ajhb.21077
PubMed: 20721982
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Agent-based modeling of the spread of the 1918-1919 flu in three Canadian fur trading communities.</title><author><name sortKey="O Neil, Caroline A" sort="O Neil, Caroline A" uniqKey="O Neil C" first="Caroline A" last="O'Neil">Caroline A. O'Neil</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Anthropology, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211, USA. cahillen@yahoo.com</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Anthropology, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Missouri 65211</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sattenspiel, Lisa" sort="Sattenspiel, Lisa" uniqKey="Sattenspiel L" first="Lisa" last="Sattenspiel">Lisa Sattenspiel</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2010">2010 Nov-Dec</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:20721982</idno><idno type="pmid">20721982</idno><idno type="doi">10.1002/ajhb.21077</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000619</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000619</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000619</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000619</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000619</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Agent-based modeling of the spread of the 1918-1919 flu in three Canadian fur trading communities.</title><author><name sortKey="O Neil, Caroline A" sort="O Neil, Caroline A" uniqKey="O Neil C" first="Caroline A" last="O'Neil">Caroline A. O'Neil</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Anthropology, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211, USA. cahillen@yahoo.com</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Anthropology, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Missouri 65211</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sattenspiel, Lisa" sort="Sattenspiel, Lisa" uniqKey="Sattenspiel L" first="Lisa" last="Sattenspiel">Lisa Sattenspiel</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council</title><idno type="eISSN">1520-6300</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Epidemics (MeSH)</term><term>History, 20th Century (MeSH)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (history)</term><term>Manitoba (epidemiology)</term><term>Population Dynamics (history)</term><term>Population Dynamics (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Rural Population (history)</term><term>Rural Population (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Seasons (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Dynamique des populations (histoire)</term><term>Dynamique des populations (statistiques et données numériques)</term><term>Grippe humaine (histoire)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Histoire du 20ème siècle (MeSH)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Manitoba (épidémiologie)</term><term>Population rurale (histoire)</term><term>Population rurale (statistiques et données numériques)</term><term>Saisons (MeSH)</term><term>Épidémies (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Manitoba</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="histoire" xml:lang="fr"><term>Dynamique des populations</term><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Population rurale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="history" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term><term>Population Dynamics</term><term>Rural Population</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Population Dynamics</term><term>Rural Population</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistiques et données numériques" xml:lang="fr"><term>Dynamique des populations</term><term>Population rurale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Manitoba</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Epidemics</term><term>History, 20th Century</term><term>Humans</term><term>Seasons</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Histoire du 20ème siècle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Saisons</term><term>Épidémies</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>OBJECTIVES</b></p><p>Previous attempts to study the 1918-1919 flu in three small communities in central Manitoba have used both three-community population-based and single-community agent-based models. These studies identified critical factors influencing epidemic spread, but they also left important questions unanswered. The objective of this project was to design a more realistic agent-based model that would overcome limitations of earlier models and provide new insights into these outstanding questions.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>The new model extends the previous agent-based model to three communities so that results can be compared to those from the population-based model. Sensitivity testing was conducted, and the new model was used to investigate the influence of seasonal settlement and mobility patterns, the geographic heterogeneity of the observed 1918-1919 epidemic in Manitoba, and other questions addressed previously.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>Results confirm outcomes from the population-based model that suggest that (a) social organization and mobility strongly influence the timing and severity of epidemics and (b) the impact of the epidemic would have been greater if it had arrived in the summer rather than the winter. New insights from the model suggest that the observed heterogeneity among communities in epidemic impact was not unusual and would have been the expected outcome given settlement structure and levels of interaction among communities.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b></p><p>Application of an agent-based computer simulation has helped to better explain observed patterns of spread of the 1918-1919 flu epidemic in central Manitoba. Contrasts between agent-based and population-based models illustrate the advantages of agent-based models for the study of small populations.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">20721982</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2011</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>03</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2012</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>15</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1520-6300</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>22</Volume><Issue>6</Issue><PubDate><MedlineDate>2010 Nov-Dec</MedlineDate></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Am. J. Hum. Biol.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Agent-based modeling of the spread of the 1918-1919 flu in three Canadian fur trading communities.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>757-67</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1002/ajhb.21077</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVES" NlmCategory="OBJECTIVE">Previous attempts to study the 1918-1919 flu in three small communities in central Manitoba have used both three-community population-based and single-community agent-based models. These studies identified critical factors influencing epidemic spread, but they also left important questions unanswered. The objective of this project was to design a more realistic agent-based model that would overcome limitations of earlier models and provide new insights into these outstanding questions.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">The new model extends the previous agent-based model to three communities so that results can be compared to those from the population-based model. Sensitivity testing was conducted, and the new model was used to investigate the influence of seasonal settlement and mobility patterns, the geographic heterogeneity of the observed 1918-1919 epidemic in Manitoba, and other questions addressed previously.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Results confirm outcomes from the population-based model that suggest that (a) social organization and mobility strongly influence the timing and severity of epidemics and (b) the impact of the epidemic would have been greater if it had arrived in the summer rather than the winter. New insights from the model suggest that the observed heterogeneity among communities in epidemic impact was not unusual and would have been the expected outcome given settlement structure and levels of interaction among communities.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Application of an agent-based computer simulation has helped to better explain observed patterns of spread of the 1918-1919 flu epidemic in central Manitoba. Contrasts between agent-based and population-based models illustrate the advantages of agent-based models for the study of small populations.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>O'Neil</LastName><ForeName>Caroline A</ForeName><Initials>CA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Anthropology, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211, USA. cahillen@yahoo.com</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sattenspiel</LastName><ForeName>Lisa</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016456">Historical Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013486">Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Am J Hum Biol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>8915029</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1042-0533</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058872" MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D049673" MajorTopicYN="N">History, 20th Century</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000266" MajorTopicYN="Y">history</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008350" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Manitoba</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011157" MajorTopicYN="N">Population Dynamics</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000266" MajorTopicYN="Y">history</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="N">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012424" MajorTopicYN="N">Rural Population</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000266" MajorTopicYN="Y">history</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="N">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012621" MajorTopicYN="N">Seasons</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2010</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>20</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2010</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>20</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2011</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>4</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20721982</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1002/ajhb.21077</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Sattenspiel, Lisa" sort="Sattenspiel, Lisa" uniqKey="Sattenspiel L" first="Lisa" last="Sattenspiel">Lisa Sattenspiel</name></noCountry><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="O Neil, Caroline A" sort="O Neil, Caroline A" uniqKey="O Neil C" first="Caroline A" last="O'Neil">Caroline A. O'Neil</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/GrippeCanadaV4/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000594 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000594 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= GrippeCanadaV4
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:20721982
|texte= Agent-based modeling of the spread of the 1918-1919 flu in three Canadian fur trading communities.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:20721982" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a GrippeCanadaV4
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.35. |  |